Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINSHASA988
2006-06-23 14:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kinshasa
Cable title:  

UDPS SAYS VIOLENCE "INEVITABLE" AFTER ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8909
PP RUEHMR
DE RUEHKI #0988/01 1741432
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231432Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4184
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000988 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: UDPS SAYS VIOLENCE "INEVITABLE" AFTER ELECTIONS

REF: A. KINSHASA 976


B. KINSHASA 834

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000988

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: UDPS SAYS VIOLENCE "INEVITABLE" AFTER ELECTIONS

REF: A. KINSHASA 976


B. KINSHASA 834

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: A top-ranking official with the opposition
Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) said June 21
that violence will be "inevitable" in the DRC after the
country's elections, and that his party will take "no
responsibility" for what will take place. Claiming that the
international community has already determined the winner of
the DRC's July 30 elections, UDPS National Committee
President Valentin Mubake said the country is a "volcano
waiting to erupt" and no foreign forces will able to prevent
or control the expected violence. The UDPS official, however,
did say the party would take part in the electoral process,
but only if there were negotiations among the political class
to address "certain problems" with the transitional
government and the elections, including the reopening of the
voter registration process. End summary.

--------------
VIOLENCE IS "INEVITABLE"
--------------


2. (C) PolOff met June 21 with Valentin Mubake, President of
the National Committee of the UDPS, to discuss the party's
position on the elections and its intentions regarding
potential violence around the July 30 elections. Over the
course of the three-hour meeting, Mubake repeatedly warned
that the DRC would inevitably descend into chaos after
elections, primarily because the electoral process is not
"credible," and the outcome has already been determined by
the international community. When asked about the UDPS's role
in inciting or supporting such violence, Mubake said these
threats would be coming from "others," not his party.
Moreover, Mubake said since the UDPS is outside the political
process, it has "no responsibility" to prevent such actions
from occurring. Mubake told PolOff to consider what he said
as a "warning, not a threat."


3. (C) Mubake said the political climate in the DRC is one
filled with hate and ethnic tensions being fanned by those
currently in power in the transitional government. Describing
the country as a "volcano waiting to erupt," Mubake said
Congolese voters will not accept election results because

they will not be credible. Mubake claimed the Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) and its president, Abbe
Apollinaire Malu Malu, were ultimately controlled by
President Kabila and his political party, the People's Party
for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD). Mubake said the
international community -- including the United States -- has
told the CEI what to do and when to hold elections, and has
rigged the electoral system so Kabila will win. As a result,
Mubake said people's votes will not matter since the system
is "fixed." Mubake claimed PPRD officials, in particular the
party's Secretary General Vital Kamehre, is handing out money
and buying votes in the eastern part of the country. Mubake
said there is no way for Kabila to win legitimately, and "no
one" thinks the President could do so without paying off
voters.


4. (C) Consequently, Mubake said those who lose in the July
30 elections will incite violence and take up arms, claiming
the vote was manipulated and unfair. In addition, those who
do win will do nothing to appease the losers and will instead
say they are the absolute rulers of the country, further
heightening tensions. With regard to the European Union force
being sent to Kinshasa to help MONUC secure elections, Mubake
said "no foreign troops will be able to stop" any of this
from happening. Mubake said he envisioned the DRC becoming
what he called "five Ituris," referring to the volatile
northeastern region of the DRC.

--------------
THE UDPS "SOLUTION"
--------------


5. (C) Mubake did say, however, that certain steps could be
taken to avoid such consequences. First, Mubake claimed UDPS
President Etienne Tshisekedi could alone "pacify the entire
country, even without MONUC." Mubake extolled the UDPS leader
as a man of many talents who has been "painted as the devil"
by the international community. As such, the international
community has "rejected" Tshisekedi and instead embraced the
"real devil" of Kabila and the rest of the transitional
government. Ultimately, Mubake said, Tshisekedi must be

KINSHASA 00000988 002 OF 003


brought back into the political process in order for it to be
deemed legitimate. He added that the UDPS has not chosen to
boycott the process, but rather, it has been excluded by
those in power as well as the international community.
Because of this exclusion, Mubake said the UDPS has no
responsibility or role to play in convincing voters to choose
candidates or parties opposing Kabila.


6. (C) Mubake claimed the UDPS would participate in the
electoral process if a "dialogue" among the DRC's political
class was held and achieved certain goals. Mubake proposed a
two-week meeting with the transitional government and other
political actors that would focus on only two topics. First,
the meeting would deal with how the country could move
towards elections with all parties "appeased." The second
topic would address the question of how the government would
be managed after elections but before the installation of a
new president and prime minister. When pressed for details on
what exactly "appeasement" entailed, Mubake said certainly
the problem of security would have to be addressed,
particularly in terms of voter intimidation and personal
security for presidential candidates. Mubake admitted as well
that in order for there to be "appeasement," the voter
registration process would need to be reopened by the CEI.
(Note: The CEI has said repeatedly it will not restart voter
registration, as the process would be too costly and
time-consuming, and lead to further major delays in the
elections. End note.) Mubake said, however, that he did not
believe such a meeting could ever take place because Kabila
and Vice President Bemba would never agree to meet each other
and discuss such issues. (Note: This prediction was
immediately proven wrong, as Kabila and Bemba, along with the
other three vice presidents, met the same day during the
"inter-institutional" dialogue, ref A. End note.) Thus,
Mubake said he really saw no way for the UDPS to take part in
the elections.


7. (C) Mubake also said it did not matter if this "dialogue"
resulted in a change of the election date past July 30,
because the elections have already been set beyond June 30,
the official end of the transitional government set by the
2003 Sun City Accords. Mubake said that because the deadline
was missed, it is absolutely necessary to negotiate a further
extension of the transitional government to legitimize the
electoral process. Mubake could not suggest, however, any
timeline for when elections could be held and thus how much
longer the transition process would need to continue.

--------------
INTERNATIONAL "INTERFERENCE"
--------------


8. (C) Mubake spent much of the meeting criticizing what he
claimed was the "interference" of the international community
in the DRC's elections process. Mubake showed PolOff a
photocopy of a memo he claimed was written by European Union
Ambassador to the DRC Carlo diFilipi that stated the
Congolese were "not capable" of running elections by
themselves. Mubake said such statements proved the
international community, particularly the European Union,
consider the Congolese as "sheep waiting to be led." Mubake
added that this also proved the international community does
not want credible elections in the DRC and that it has
already chosen Kabila as its candidate. Mubake alleged as
well that the USG was supporting Kabila, though Mubake could
not provide any evidence. Nonetheless, Mubake said the USG
was the only actor who had the "legitimacy" to resolve the
current political crisis, and urged the USG to "distinguish
itself positively" in the DRC's affairs. Otherwise, he
warned, the problems that will arise after elections are the
fault of the international community, and thus its
responsibility to resolve.

--------------
TAKE MONSENGWO SERIOUSLY
--------------


9. (C) Mubake and PolOff also discussed the comments of
Kisangani Archbishop Laurent Monsengwo, the president of the
National Episcopal Conference of the Congo (CENCO) (ref B).
Mubake said Monsengwo carefully chose his words when writing
about the possibility of a "new war" in the DRC if no
"dialogue" were held before elections. Mubake explained that
Monsengwo meant his words as a warning, but said as well they
could be considered a threat. Mubake said the Church is a
very powerful force in the DRC, perhaps more so than any
political party, and Monsengwo's words reach every corner of

KINSHASA 00000988 003 OF 003


the DRC. Consequently, people listen and follow the direction
of Monsengwo and CENCO. Mubake said that even though the
international community has "ignored" the UDPS and its
warnings about violence and discord, it should take seriously
what Monsengwo is saying, because it will happen.

-------------- -
COMMENT: UDPS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION
-------------- -


10. (C) Comment: Mubake, who represents the more
obstructionist and militant wing of the UDPS, wanted to send
a clear message that if the UDPS is not appeased -- which
would be impossible in any case -- there will be violence in
the DRC. But for Mubake to claim the UDPS has no
responsibility in stemming "inevitable" post-election
violence because it has been "excluded" from the process is
false. The UDPS excluded itself, despite numerous and
repeated entreaties from the international community,
including Kofi Annan. It has played its cards very poorly,
and now is threatening violence as an act of final
desperation and cynicism.


11. (C) Comment, continued: As for Mubake's proposed
"dialogue," it is clear such an idea is untenable as the
stated goals would be impossible to achieve. The UDPS still
insists that voter registration must be restarted, a demand
which the CEI has rightly rejected because of the logistical
problems and delays it would cause. Continuing to push for
such conditions, while knowing full well they will be
rejected, demonstrates the UDPS has no intention of
participating in elections or in working to make them more
"credible," which it claims must be done. Furthermore,
Mubake's claim that it does not matter if elections are held
after July 30 indicates the UDPS is not interested in
elections ever taking place, despite the overwhelming will of
Congolese voters to the contrary. Moreover, Kabila and the
four vice presidents declared this week after the June 21
inter-institutional meeting (reftel) that elections will take
place on July 30. Discussions are continuing, and once again
the UDPS has missed the train. End comment.
MEECE