SLOGGING TOWARD JULY 30 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000976

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: SLOGGING TOWARD JULY 30 ELECTIONS

REF: KINSHASA 954

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Roger Meece. Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: President Kabila, the four GDRC Vice
Presidents, other senior officials and members of the
International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT)
met for four and a half hours June 21 to discuss election
planning and the post-June 30 future. The Independent
Election Committee (CEI) President presented an extensive
report on preparations for the scheduled July 30 first round
elections, as well as the yet unscheduled second round.
There was extensive but inconclusive debate about what if
anything should be done relative to the key June 30
originally scheduled Transition expiration, and the period
leading to installation of a new government. All parties
agreed that the July 30 first round date must be preserved,
representing an important explicit endorsement of this date.
VPs Ruberwa, Z'Ahidi, and Bemba variously pushed for some
kind of expanded "consultation" to discuss broader political
topics, an idea resisted by Kabila and essentially by several
CIAT members. Eventually, Kabila and the VPs agreed to
summary communique language to refer to the need for
"concertations" (planning),but not "consultations" (implying
a more formal broad conference),with agreement to continue
the session next week. End summary.

Assembling the Institutions
--------------


2. (SBU) The Presidency convened an extraordinary
"inter-institutional meeting" June 21 to discuss elections.
The meeting arose out of growing public debate about the
desirability of holding some kind of broad political
conference to discuss the justification and modalities of how
to continue Transition government operations beyond June 30,
the date originally projected as the end of the Transition
under terms of the 2003 Sun City accords. The opposition
UDPS party, which has chosen to boycott the election process,
has been calling for a new political "dialogue" to
renegotiate the nature and form of the GDRC government, and
redefining the election process. Others less radical,
including Vice President Ruberwa, have expressed support for
some sort of broad "consultations" to achieve a political
consensus regarding the post-June 30 future.


3. (C) Participants in the June 21 meeting included President
Kabila, all four GDRC Vice Presidents, the Presidents of the
National Assembly and Senate, the Minister of the Interior,
the heads of the five Transition " citizen institutions" (in
charge of elections, media oversight, human rights
monitoring, anti-corruption activities, and "truth and
reconciliation"),several Presidency support staff, and the
heads of mission constituting the International Committee to
Accompany the Transition (CIAT). There had been
considerable confusion about the CIAT invitation up to the
morning of the event. At least one Presidency advisor
apparently sought to invite only four CIAT representatives,
the European Commission delegate, the EU Presidency
Ambassador, and the equivalent African Union counterparts.
CIAT members unanimously agreed this was unacceptable; GDRC
officials could not determine CIAT representation.
Eventually all CIAT members were invited.

Election Preparations
--------------


4. (C) The June 21 agenda included two items - the state of
election preparations and the June 30 Transition "expiration"
date. Independent Election Committee (CEI) President Malu
Malu delivered a comprehensive summary of elections planning,
supported by a thick briefing document provided to each
meeting participant. Typical of Malu Malu's performances,
his report was detailed and thorough, emphasizing progress
made toward the July 30 first-round target date, but noting
problems. For example, Malu Malu reported that legislative
ballots for Kinshasa just received from South Africa
contained errors requiring reprinting. He outlined steps
being taken to correct the problem, preserving the July 30
date. There were few questions following Malu Malu,s
presentation, but Vice Presidents Ruberwa and Z'Ahidi Ngoma
requested more time to study the CEI's extensive
documentation in more detail, and potentially ask follow-on
questions. EU Special Envoy Aldo Ajello's recent slip,
publicly announcing a de facto second round election calendar
(reftel),was not referenced or discussed, even though Ajello
is ironically in the DRC right now. Malu Malu confirmed that

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he hopes to announce the second round calendar next week.

Post June 30: New Consultation?
--------------


5. (C) Ruberwa introduced debate on the second topic,
apparently put on the agenda at his request. Noting an
increasingly tense political atmosphere and ambiguities of
the power of the government to extend the original Transition
period, he proposed convening a broader political
consultation to achieve a political consensus regarding
elections and government operations beyond June 30. He
opined that such a meeting could be well defined and last no
more than one day. Vice Presidents Bemba and Z,Ahidi
endorsed the general approach, albeit for different reasons.
At various times, Bemba spoke of numerous election
difficulties, including media access, perceived harassment of
candidate(s),candidate security, and other problems.
Z'Ahidi focused on perceived election shortcomings, also
speaking at length regarding security problems in eastern DRC
and the problem they pose for the elections. Other speakers
for the most part expressed reservations. Senate President
Marini expressed doubts that such a meeting could be
contained, noted potential resultant risks to the election
calendar, and observed that the debate over the new
Constitution (endorsed by popular referendum) had resolved
the debate about Transition institutions continuing until a
new elected government is formed. Others emphasized that the
existing Transition institutions, as represented in the room,
were explicitly charged with addressing the kinds of concerns
and problems identified by various speakers. National
Assembly President Luhaka (a member of Bemba,s party)
limited himself to stating that the Assembly had taken no
position on the question. Interior Minister Mbemba spoke of
the risks of assembling such a conference, noting the 1991
precedent of a national conference that declared itself
"sovereign" and setting off to chart a totally new political
future. (Comment: Some of the discussion became somewhat
heated, although never descending to the level of ugly
personal attacks that have at times characterized such
meetings. End comment).


6. (C) The CIAT has not taken a formal position regarding a
broad "consultation" forum, but members spoke of the
importance and need to utilize existing institutions, as well
as the overriding importance of preserving the July 30
first-round target date. CIAT members also noted the risks
to government operations associated with the electoral period
extending to the formation of a new government, reminding the
"Espace Presidentiel" (President and four Vice Presidents) of
a CIAT request just made for an urgent meeting of the CIAT
with the "Espace" precisely to discuss the issue.


7. (C) There was no consensus regarding the "consultation"
proposal. Kabila summarized the long discussion by noting
that during the discussion all parties had explicitly
endorsed the July 30 elected target date, and all had
acknowledged that no debate or consultation should put that
date at risk. As well, there had been general agreement that
further exchanges or general consultations would be useful,
albeit no full agreement on the form. Kabila also agreed to
a follow-on meeting of the same group on Monday, June 26, to
permit participants to ask further questions after studying
the CEI documents, as well as discuss the topic further.

Public Comments
--------------


8. (C) Ruberwa asked what if anything should be said to the
press following the meeting, provoking new active
discussions. All agreed that the July 30 date could and
should be emphasized, but there was disagreement about what
to say about proposed new discussions. Someone proposed
saying further "consultations were desirable. The Belgian
Ambassador suggested that this should be in the context of
existing institutions, to which VP Bemba answered sharply
that this might be the CIAT's view, but not necessarily that
of others. Kabila and the four Vice Presidents went into an
extended huddle, eventually announcing that it would be
acceptable to talk about further "concertations"
(essentially, planning) vice "consultations." A drafting
committee was appointed to draw up language.


9. (C) Among final "other business" comments, Bemba
reiterated a familiar appeal that the international community
should remain neutral in the election race, and not endorse
certain candidates or parties. A Monday follow-on meeting

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was scheduled, and Kabila asked Ruberwa, in his capacity as
chair of the Political Commission, to come up with new ideas
to address the "consultations/concertations" issues. Ruberwa
responded that would be unlikely before Monday, and he
essentially had already made his recommendation.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Comment: The "consultation" or "dialogue" debate is
highly charged, and it is difficult to see how such a
conference could be brought off before June 30, even if
acceptable terms of reference could be defined. It could in
any event be a risky exercise and difficult to control, as
noted by several speakers during the meeting. If Kabila
thought the "inter-institutional meeting" could preempt the
pressure for a larger exercise, he miscalculated. On a
positive note, explicit endorsement without reserves for the
July 30 target election date from all four Vice Presidents
represents a useful step forward, and will help reinforce
publicly the July 30 election as a non-negotiable political
fact. If the Monday follow-on meeting comes off, no sure
thing, we do not expect a new consensus to emerge regarding
broader "consultations." Bemba's parting shot about
international neutrality reflects his longstanding view that
international partners have already lined up behind Kabila,
but is not based on any new specific events or charges. The
session was a not-untypical rather exhausting discussion, not
particularly conclusive, but perhaps helpful in advancing the
ball a bit further down the field toward July 30. End
comment.
MEECE