Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINSHASA793
2006-05-19 11:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kinshasa
Cable title:  

ELECTIONS: PPRD SURPRISINGLY COMPETITIVE IN GRAND

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO CG UG RW ELECTIONS 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000793 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO CG UG RW ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: PPRD SURPRISINGLY COMPETITIVE IN GRAND
NORD


Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000793

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO CG UG RW ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: PPRD SURPRISINGLY COMPETITIVE IN GRAND
NORD


Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: North Kivu's "Grand Nord" region, the assumed
stronghold of candidates and political parties of Nande
tribal origin, is undergoing a political transformation of
sorts in the months leading up to the DRC's July 30
presidential and legislative elections. Long a power base for
national politicians such as Mbusa Nyamwisi and Pierre
Pay-Pay (both Nande),the Grand Nord appears to be making
room for the distinctly non-Nande People's Party for
Reconstruction and Development (PPRD),the party backing DRC
President Joseph Kabila. This emerging support for the PPRD
may come at the expense of the RCD-K/ML party of Nyamwisi. As
a result, the region remains politically active, although
fears of post-election violence and foreign interference are
widespread. End summary.


2. (U) During a May 4-6 visit to North Kivu province, PolOff
and EconOff met with a variety of regional authorities and
political actors, including officials from the Catholic
Church, civil society, political parties and the business
community. EmbOffs visited the towns of Beni, Kasindi and
Butembo, all of which are situated in North Kivu's "Grand
Nord," a region dominated by the Nande tribe. The Nande pride
themselves on their enterprise, having created for themselves
a regional business network largely without any input from
state authorities. (Note: Economic conditions in North Kivu
among the Nande community will be reported septel. End note.)
The Grand Nord is politically active, with the area serving
as a launching pad for the political ambitions of various
Nande politicians.

--------------
SHIFTING NANDE ALLIANCES
--------------


3. (SBU) The dominant political party of the Grand Nord has
been the Rally for Congolese Democracy-Kisangani/Liberation
Movement (RCD-K/ML),led by former rebel leader and current
Minister of Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi, himself a
Nande. The RCD-K/ML is largely a party built on ethnic Nande

identity, garnering little support outside of North Kivu. Yet
because of the economic power of the Nande in the region,
RCD-K/ML has been able to build a national name for itself,
albeit a small one compared to other DRC political parties.
Nyamwisi, in an effort to broaden his party's appeal, is
running as a candidate for president under the banner of
"Forces for Renewal," a coalition of Congolese political
parties. (Note: Former National Assembly President Olivier
Kamitatu -- who hails from Bandundu province -- and his
party, the Alliance for the Renewal of Congo -- are also
members of this larger alliance. In the Grand Nord, though,
it has been the RCD-K/ML dominating the political scene. End
note.)


4. (SBU) Despite the past popularity of Nyamwisi, his
position as the pre-eminent political leader of the Nande has
been challenged in recent months by the candidacy of former
Mobutu-period minister Pierre Pay-Pay, also a Nande. Several
political observers in North Kivu told PolOff that Nyamwisi's
support among the Nande population has been slipping recently
because he has not visited the region since announcing his
candidacy for president earlier this year. The assistant
Bishop of Butembo, Monsignor Emmanuel, speculated that those
who would normally support Nyamwisi may now instead consider
voting for Pay-Pay for this perceived "slight" by Nyamwisi.
PolOff was hard-pressed, however, to discover any visible
signs of support for Pay-Pay's Coalition of Congolese
Democrats (CODECO) party; in fact, during a four-hour drive
between Beni, Kasindi and Butembo, not a single CODECO party
flag was seen flying along the route. In addition, the
MONUC-Beni Head of Office said Pay-Pay has not visited the
region recently either. (Note: Kamitatu and his ARC party
were originally aligned with Pay-Pay. While some form of
alliance may still exist between them, relations have cooled
since ARC has joined Nyamwisi's Forces of Renewal coalition.
In any case, alliances will continue to shift in the
pre-election period. End note.)


5. (C) Part of the reason for Nyamwisi and RCD-K/ML's
reported loss of support in North Kivu may lie in the lack of
political effectiveness among the party's local officials.
PolOff met May 5 in Beni with a delegation of RCD-K/ML
representatives, including the local executive secretary in
charge of mobilization and an RCD-K/ML candidate for the
National Assembly. While the delegates were confident of
their chances and eager to begin participating in an
electoral campaign, they demonstrated little knowledge or
understanding of what would be required to win the elections.
The officials routinely complained they lacked adequate
financial resources to mount an effective campaign,
especially against better-financed political adversaries
(i.e., the PPRD),and one legislative candidate directly
solicited support from the USG. (Note: Such solicitation,
however, is not unique to the RCD-K/ML, as politicians from
nearly every party routinely ask Western officials for some
form of assistance. End note.) In addition, the officials
could not articulate a specific party platform or set of
campaign promises, aside from general declarations of
"economic reconstruction."

--------------
PPRD SUPPORT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
--------------


6. (C) The apparent weakness of the RCD-K/ML and CODECO in
the Grand Nord became evident by the surprisingly strong show
of support for the People's Party for Reconstruction and
Development (PPRD),the political "home" of President Joseph
Kabila. Throughout the region, the bright yellow flag of the
PPRD could be seen almost everywhere. Between Beni, Kasindi
and Butembo, for example, PolOff counted along the main road
more than 40 PPRD flags, slightly more than the number of
RCD-K/ML flags. In the town of Beni, dozens of youths were
seen walking the streets in brand new t-shirts emblazoned
with the PPRD logo and a picture of President Kabila. The
appearance of both the flags and t-shirts can mostly be
attributed to the visit of PPRD General Secretary Vital
Kamerhe, who had arrived in Beni May 4 and spoke to a crowd
of several hundred during his tour of eastern DRC. RCD-K/ML
officials that PolOff spoke to charged that Kamerhe had paid
people to show up for the rally with the t-shirts.
Nonetheless, RCD-K/ML officials said they considered the PPRD
to be their main political opponent in the coming elections
-- a sign perhaps that their former dominance is indeed being
challenged. Members of Beni's civil society, Monsignor
Emmanuel in Butembo, and the Mayor of Butembo, Zebedee
Wabunga Sunda, all said the PPRD was well-positioned in the
region, and could very well win a majority of legislative
seats in Grand Nord districts.

--------------
OTHER MINOR PLAYERS
--------------


7. (SBU) Aside from the RCD-K/ML and the PPRD, there are a
few other, smaller actors vying for political space in the
Grand Nord. The most prominent of these parties (again, as
evidenced by the number of flags seen flying in the area) is
the Convention of Federalists for Christian Democracy
(COFEDEC),one of the signatories of the Sun City Accords.
The MONUC-Beni Head of Office said COFEDEC enjoys a
substantial degree of support among the local population, but
others PolOff spoke to considered the party to be strongly
allied with the PPRD. Also present in the Grand Nord are the
larger Congolese political parties of the Rally for Congolese
Democracy (RCD, the party of Vice President Azarias Ruberwa)
and the Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC, led by Vice
President Jean-Pierre Bemba). These two parties, though,
appear to have a much weaker base in the area, though they
are expected to win a handful of seats in the National
Assembly from Grand Nord districts. As noted, nowhere to be
found in the Grand Nord were flags or signs of support for
Pay-Pay's CODECO party. Also missing were any flags of
Kamitatu's ARC, which is presumably a critical ally of
RCD-K/ML and Nyamwisi's "Forces of Renewal." (Note: The lack
of ARC flags in the area, though, may have simply been part
of Kamitatu's agreement with Nyamwisi not to complete
directly against RCD-K/ML in the Grand Nord. In any case, no
voters PolOff met spoke of supporting ARC or Kamitatu. End
note.)

--------------
FEAR OF SPOILERS AFTER ELECTIONS
--------------


8. (U) Throughout the Grand Nord, those potential voters
PolOff encountered expressed a strong desire to participate
in elections and bring an end to the current transitional
government. Many officials, including the local coordinators
of the Independent Electoral Commission in Beni and Butembo,
pointed to the higher-than-average voter turnout rates during
the country's December constitutional referendum. Nearly all
Congolese PolOff met said they planned on voting in the July
30 and were confident elections would take place.


9. (C) Nearly all voters expressed their fears about the
post-election period, when potential "spoilers" may attempt
to overturn election results by force of arms. Of particular
concern was the question of who controlled elements of the
Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) stationed in the Grand Nord.
These FARDC troops -- members of the 88th and 89th Brigades
-- have not yet been through the integration process and are
suspected to be under the control of certain Congolese
politicians whose loyalties may not lie with the DRC. One
persistent rumor shared with PolOff by the local president of
Butembo's civil society, as well as regional coordinators of
the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),was that Nyamwisi
ultimately controlled these FARDC troops, and might use them
to his advantage after elections if he loses. RCD-K/ML
officials, however, strongly denied such allegations. This
suspicion, however, may give voters another reason to shift
their allegiance to other parties.


10. (C) Others in Beni and Butembo said they worried about
the threats posed by foreign armed groups, particularly the
Allied Democratic Forces/National Army for the Liberation of
Uganda (ADF/NALU) and the Democratic Forces for the
Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The mayors of both Beni and
Butembo said they were concerned that not enough was being
done by MONUC and the international community to prevent the
governments of Uganda or Rwanda from interfering before and
after the DRC's elections. MONUC officials said such groups
pose a certain security risk to the region, but added that
they did not believe they would attempt to prevent elections
from taking place.

-------------- --------------
COMMENT: PPRD POISED FOR A STRONG SHOWING IN THE GRAND NORD
-------------- --------------


11. (C) The PPRD seems to be well-positioned in a region that
usually does not support outsiders (i.e., those not of Nande
origin). The Nande community itself is divided over two
"favorite sons," Nyamwisi and Pay-Pay, providing an
opportunity for the PPRD (and thus, President Kabila) to make
inroads there. The depth of support for the PPRD in the Grand
Nord may not be especially deep, but as the best-financed
Congolese political party, it stands a chance of winning
National Assembly seats in these districts. The unofficial
"flag count" in the Grand Nord would indicated the PPRD has
worked its way to a position of relative parity (or at least,
visibility) against the traditional favorite, RCD-K/ML. While
the PPRD may not possess a political platform any more
defined than that of RCD-K/ML (that is, no platform at all),
the relative disorganization on the part of the Nyamwisi's
party has opened up opportunities for the PPRD. The Nande of
the Grand Nord are committed to the electoral process and
will likely turn out in significant numbers to vote on July

30. End comment.
MEECE