EASTERN KASAI: UDPS FANS TENSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000405

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN KASAI: UDPS FANS TENSIONS

REF: KINSHASA 380

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: PolOff and EconOff conducted a two-day visit
February 23-24 to Mbuji-Mayi, the capital of Eastern Kasai
province. During the trip, emboffs met with a variety of
local officials, political party representatives and MONUC
staff to assess the political, economic and security
situations in the region. Eastern Kasai is largely stable in
the pre-election period, but like its sister province,
Western Kasai, political tensions and general
misunderstandings of the electoral process could result in
civil unrest in the coming months. End summary.


2. (C) PolOff and EconOff visited February 23-24 the capital
of Eastern Kasai province, Mbuji-Mayi, to assess the state of
political and economic affairs in this politically-volatile
and diamond-rich region. (A report on economic conditions and
the province's diamond industry will follow septel.) Eastern
Kasai is a poor province, with little infrastructure or
agricultural base, despite the potential revenue from the
region's diamond mines. Its economic situation
notwithstanding, Eastern Kasaians are very active
politically, as Mbuji-Mayi is the traditional home base of
the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress
(UDPS). Consequently, most political discourse is aimed
against the international community and the transitional
government for their supposed efforts to exclude the UDPS
(and, it argues, Kasaians in general) from the political
process.

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UDPS REGISTRATION
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3. (C) Much like their counterparts in Kananga (reftel),UDPS
representatives in Mbuji-Mayi were argumentative in demanding
"equitable" treatment of their party in the electoral
process. UDPS provincial president Tsana Tshilumbayi said his
party "regretted" what the International Committee to
Accompany the Transition (CIAT) had done to exclude the UDPS
and its President, Etienne Tshisekedi, from registering to
vote. Tshilumbayi said he felt "deceived" by CIAT's refusal
to get the UDPS involved in the transitional government.
Tshilumbayi noted that registration centers in the provinces

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of Bandundu and Equateur were open well after the December
constitutional referendum, which would unfairly advantage
those areas at the expense of the Kasais. He claimed the
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) was more than capable
of reopening centers in other provinces while still preparing
for elections before June 30. (Note: Again, UDPS officials --
be they in Kinshasa or in the provinces -- push a revisionist
history regarding the role of CIAT in the electoral process.
It was the UDPS and Tshisekedi himself who chose not to take
part in the transitional government and to boycott the
registration process and the constitutional referendum. In
addition, the CEI extended enrollment in Bandundu and
Equateur only because not all centers there were open for the
three-week legal minimum before the referendum. Centers in
the Kasais were opened for far longer. In any case, the issue
is a red herring in that UDPS supporters, including those in
Eastern Kasai, registered in large numbers. As for Tshisekedi
and other UDPS leaders who did not register, the CEO has
already made provisions that they can register to vote at the
same time they file their papers to run for office. End note.)


4. (C) PolOff explained to UDPS officials that neither the
CIAT, nor the USG, had done anything to exclude the party
from elections. In fact, the UDPS had been encouraged at
every step to engage in the process. PolOff pointed out that
UDPS supporters who wished to run as candidates would be
allowed to register to vote at the same time they registered
their candidacies -- a decision made by the CEI and supported
by the international community. Tshilumbayi and other UDPS
officials present responded that such measures would not
allow the "tens of thousands" of UDPS supporters to register,
thereby putting the UDPS at a disadvantage.


5. (C) Tshilumbayi and other Eastern Kasai political figures
had met February 23 with CEI President Abbe Apollinaire Malu
Malu, who had come to Mbuji-Mayi to explain the electoral law
adopted by Parliament and awaiting promulgation. According to
Tshilumbayi, Malu Malu explained why registration centers

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could not be reopened. Malu Malu reportedly said the CEI
would, however, initiate an extensive civic education
campaign to encourage all eligible citizens to vote.

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Tshilumbayi said he, as well as rival political parties, told

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Malu Malu such efforts would be "insufficient" and
"nonproductive" as the majority of Kasaians were not
registered in the first place. (Note: This argument is false,
as nearly 90 percent of the estimated total number of
eligible Kasaians -- including 78 percent of those eligible
in Eastern Kasai -- registered to vote despite the UDPS
boycott. End note.) Tshilumbayi also said the CEI needed to
ensure the integrity of the elections process (particularly
vote-counting),as he claimed the referendum results in
Eastern Kasai were "fraudulent." He added that the UDPS would
not accept a "flawed" election.


6. (C) Tshilumbayi insisted to PolOff, though, that the UDPS
would take part in elections and expressed his party's desire
to see elections take place before June 30. At the same time,
Tshilumbayi warned that if the UDPS were not "included" in

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the process, the final election results would be contested in
Eastern Kasai. Tshilumbayi mused that in such a scenario,
there would certainly be violence and demonstrations in
Mbuji-Mayi and elsewhere in the province, and that the UDPS
could not control everything its followers do. He quickly
added, however, that the UDPS would never advocate such
action.

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CIVIL SOCIETY SINGS FROM THE SAME SONGBOOK
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7. (C) A meeting with civil society representatives in
Mbuji-Mayi revealed similar attitudes with regard to the
alleged mistreatment of the UDPS and the Kasais. Civil
society provincial president Dr. Nkongolo told PolOff that
citizens of Eastern Kasai are "convinced" they are the object
of a "plot" by the international community and the
transitional government to marginalize the province
politically and economically. Nkongolo called for the
reopening of registration centers and argued that CIAT should
pressure the CEI to restart the process.


8. (C) Nkongolo and other civil society officials echoed UDPS
concerns about the CEI's preparedness for elections. Nkongolo
claimed that during the referendum, the CEI was unable to
dispatch voting kits and equipment to all the anticipated
voting sites. In addition, much of the equipment broke down,
and elections workers themselves were not well trained.
Nkongolo concluded that the CEI was not prepared to overcome
similar challenges during national elections, which risks
delegitimizing the electoral process.


9. (C) Civil society's most pressing concern, though, was
that Eastern Kasai would not be adequately represented in the
new government. Nkongolo said because so many people did not
register, the province would be under-represented in the
National Assembly. PolOff explained that reopening the
registration process was impossible, given the time
constraints of the electoral calendar. PolOff urged civil
society to urge those who had registered to vote, so that
their voices would be heard. Several members of the
delegation, however, said they did not understand how they
could change the system after elections, and did not believe
strong voter turnout would improve their representation at
the national level.

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WARNINGS FROM OTHER CORNERS
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10. (C) PolOff also met with provincial governor Dominique
Kanku (of the Congolese Liberation Movement -- MLC) and with
representatives of the People's Party for Reconstruction and
Development (PPRD). While these officials touted their own
prospects for the elections, they also warned about the
possibility of violence from UDPS supporters. Kanku, who
attended the meeting with Malu Malu, said UDPS officials were
"outraged" by the CEI's decisions and could not understand
why they were being kept out of the electoral process. Kanku
said Kasaians will not accept elections results if they do
not believe the UDPS has been "integrated" into the process.
(Note: Kanku himself does not think the UDPS has been
excluded from elections, except by their own decisions. End
note.) PPRD officials told PolOff they were not necessarily
concerned about violence from UDPS followers, but they
nonetheless were taking "all necessary measures" to protect
themselves "against any outside attack." PPRD provincial
president Dr. Kabamba would not elaborate when asked what
exactly such threats entailed, but later hinted that he was

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referring to the kind of "popular" demonstrations (often
orchestrated by the UDPS) which occur in Mbuji-Mayi.


11. (C) Despite their concerns over the conduct of the UDPS,
PPRD and MLC officials believed their parties could succeed
in the opposition party's home base. Governor Kanku said the
MLC was very strong in the province and had laid out a "broad
vision" for the DRC which would certainly benefit the people
of Eastern Kasai. Kanku explained at length how the divisions
between MLC chairman Jean-Pierre Bemba and former MLC
Executive Secretary Olivier Kamitatu would have no effect on
the MLC's political strategy. PPRD officials similarly played
up their electoral chances, promising to fix roads, invest in
agriculture, and provide electricity and water if elected.
Officials from both parties said they respected the necessity
to hold elections and install a new government by June 30.
Kanku and Kabamba said the logistical problems facing
elections workers were significant in Eastern Kasai, but it
was absolutely necessary to complete the transitional process
within the current timeframe.

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CEI LOOKS MORE PREPARED, BUT STILL LACKS FUNDS
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12. (C) PolOff visited CEI headquarters in Mbuji-Mayi
February 24 and found its offices in much better shape than
those in Kananga (reftel). In a large building, which had
working electricity (unlike many others in the city),dozens
of workers appeared very busy. The activity was likely the
result of a final round of payment to elections workers
scheduled for that day, as several dozen people were waiting
outside the CEI offices for their pay. CEI provincial
coordinator Hubert Tshiswaka told PolOff the CEI was prepared
to begin civic education campaigns and registering
candidates. He added that all of the CEI's agents for Eastern
Kasai had received training for the pre-electoral period as
well.


13. (C) Responding to questions about the CEI's performance
during the referendum, Tshiswaka said his office had learned
many lessons from that experience and were working to correct
problems before the national elections. Tshiswaka said he
told CEI President Malu Malu that the Mbuji-Mayi office could
carry out its mission, but it also needed more funding for
transportation and other logistical operations. Tshiswaka
said his office has not received any additional financial
support from Kinshasa since the referendum. Consequently,
many of the CEI's cars and other vehicles are inoperable
because the CEI lacks money to buy spare parts. Tshiswaka
said he was still waiting a reply from CEI offices in
Kinshasa as to whether more resources would be made available
to address these problems. CEI officials in Kinshasa told
PolOff March 8 they were revising their operational budgets
for the provinces and would take the Mbuji-Mayi's appeal into
account.

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COMMENT: IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE UDPS
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14. (C) The political fate of Eastern Kasai rests in the
hands of the UDPS. Should the party decide to drop its
request to reopen voter registration centers and participate
actively in elections, it is unlikely widespread violence or
demonstrations will erupt in Mbuji-Mayi or throughout the
province. If, however, the UDPS continues to demand
"equitable treatment" and fails to engage in the electoral
process, some UDPS supporters will use the occasion to incite
civil disturbances. Some provincial party leaders are
beginning to see the error of the party's prior decision to
boycott the process, and are pushing for a more active UDPS
role in the elections. Much of the rank-and-file of the UDPS,
however, follows the pronouncements of party leader Etienne
Tshisekedi. For now, Eastern Kasai is calm, but as with

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Western Kasai, the possibility of unrest is real. End comment.
MEECE