Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINSHASA380
2006-03-07 12:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kinshasa
Cable title:  

WESTERN KASAI: CALM, BUT UNPREDICTABLE

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KPKO CG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0675
PP RUEHMR
DE RUEHKI #0380/01 0661208
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 071208Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3336
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000380 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG
SUBJECT: WESTERN KASAI: CALM, BUT UNPREDICTABLE


Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000380

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG
SUBJECT: WESTERN KASAI: CALM, BUT UNPREDICTABLE


Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: PolOff and EconOff February 21-23 visited
Kananga, the capital of Eastern Kasai province. During the
visit, PolOff met with a variety of local political
representatives and civil society actors to gauge the
province's preparedness for national elections in 2006 and
the potential for violence in the coming months. While a
highly politicized area, due largely to the strength of the
long-time opposition party Union for Democracy and Social
Progress (UDPS),Western Kasai remains relatively calm in the
pre-election period. However, in conversations with PolOff,
most political parties demonstrated little understanding of
the electoral decisions being made at the national level in
Kinshasa. The possibility of violence will rest largely in
the hands of the UDPS, which, while remaining the major
political player in urban areas, no longer wields as much
influence and power throughout the entire province. End
summary.


2. (C) PolOff and EconOff conducted a three-day visit
February 21-23 to the provincial capital Kananga in Western
Kasai. In a series of meetings with local politicians,
political party representatives, economic and business
leaders, and civil society actors, Embassy officials received
a detailed picture of the political realities in the
province. (Economic conditions will be reported septel.)
Almost all political activity in Western Kasai is focused on
preparing for the upcoming national, legislative and
provincial elections in 2006. Political actors in the
province, however, feel marginalized by the central
government, due in large part to their belief that Western
Kasai will be under-represented in the future government.
This mindset is reinforced by repeated calls from the UDPS to
reopen voter registration centers in the province, so that
those who boycotted the registration process (at the behest
of the UDPS in the first place) will be allowed to vote.
(Note: Arguments that Kasaians will be under-represented are
specious, as enrollment statistics show that nearly 90
percent of the estimated eligible population in the two Kasai
provinces registered to vote. Moreover, each Kasaian

district, on average, will have roughly the same number of
seats in the National Assembly as other districts in the DRC.
Thus, the Kasais are only "under-represented" to the extent
that they have a smaller population than other areas of the
country. End note.)

--------------
UDPS: POWER WANES BUT PROBLEM REMAINS
--------------


3. (C) Kananga is a major stronghold (and thus a major hotbed
of activity) for the UDPS. Political observers in the
province concede the party is still very popular and can
easily mobilize its followers. During the December 2005
constitutional referendum, for example, the UDPS called for a
boycott of the vote. In Western Kasai, UDPS supporters
apparently heeded that call, at least in Kananga. Overall
participation in the province was 46 percent, while in
Kananga it was just 16 percent. In other areas of the
province, however, participation rates reached as high as 80
percent. MONUC-Kananga Head of Office Jean Victor Nkolo said
the disparity in the participation figures demonstrates that
the UDPS does have influence (for example, among politically
angry, disaffected youth) in the cities, but its influence is
more limited in rural areas of the province. Nkolo said the
party's message of boycott and rejection is not filtering
down through the province, and the UDPS itself is not
strongly present outside of Kananga. Consequently, Nkolo said
the UDPS is running behind in its election preparations,
leaving a political void for other parties to fill.


4. (C) During a contentious meeting with provincial UDPS
representatives, PolOff was subject to a string of anti-U.S.
and anti-international community invective. UDPS officials
blamed the USG for abandoning the Congolese people and
allowing the country to be "raped and looted" by former
dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. They further charged the USG was
actively backing the "assassins" in power in the current
transitional government at the expense of democracy. UDPS
officials claimed the USG and other members of the
International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT)
were working to exclude the UDPS from elections by not
allowing registration centers to reopen. After hearing the
USG and the Ambassador being repeatedly called "liars" and
"thieves," PolOff suggested that such language was not
helpful in fostering a dialogue, and did little to improve

KINSHASA 00000380 002 OF 003


the party's reputation in the international community. PolOff
explained to the delegates that no one in the CIAT,
particularly the USG, wished to see the UDPS excluded from
the process, and in fact welcomed their participation. PolOff
also reminded the officials that it was the Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) that decided it would be
impossible to restart the voter registration process.


5. (C) The UDPS officials, however, remained adamant that the
CEI, the CIAT and the transitional government were all
actively working against them. The representatives claimed
all they wanted were free and credible elections, and they
would certainly participate in the elections. In fact, the
officials said they had just completed the training of 400
elections monitors. However, the UDPS delegates continued to
push for the reopening of registration centers and presented
their demand as an ultimatum. UDPS provincial president
Brandard Tshimbombo told PolOff there would be a "revolution"
in the DRC if the USG did nothing to reopen the centers.
Asked what he meant by that, Tshimbombo would not elaborate,
saying only that the people of Western Kasai were "unhappy"
and would accept being "mistreated any longer."

--------------
OTHER PARTIES READY TO FILL THE VOID
--------------


6. (C) While the UDPS continues to fulminate over perceived
mistreatment at the hands of the CEI and the CIAT, other
political parties in Western Kasai are busily preparing
candidates and campaigns. PolOff met with representatives of
the three major DRC political parties (People's Party for
Reconstruction and Development -- PPRD, the Movement for the
Liberation of Congo -- MLC, and the Rally for Congolese
Democracy-Goma -- RCD-G),and found them actively working to
pull support away from the UDPS. The delegates from all three
parties expressed confidence in their abilities to win a
majority of parliamentary seats in the upcoming elections.


7. (C) The PPRD ought to be able to take advantage of the
fact that their provincial governor of Western Kasai,
Andre-Claudel Lubaya, is from their party. MONUC Head of
Office Nkolo said Lubaya has been very active during the
pre-elections period, helping elections workers get paid and
being very visible in promoting what he (i.e., the PPRD) has
done for the province. Nkolo said Lubaya's activities have
been clearly political and are meant to advance the chances
of his party. However, in speaking with PPRD provincial
officials, PolOff received a less rosy picture of the PPRD's
preparedness in the province. The PPRD representative said
the party lacks communications equipment, transportation and
other logistical support. Moreover, the PPRD delegates could
not clearly articulate the party's campaign strategy or point
to concrete steps the PPRD would take to improve the lives of
Kasaians.


8. (C) The RCD-G and MLC have already begun preparing for the
elections. RCD-G representatives, while confident of their
chances, said they were prepared to collaborate with other
political parties in the province. (Note: If true, this would
indicate a long-rumored alliance between the RCD and the
UDPS, which would certainly bolster the prospects of the RCD
in the region and permit both parties to present themselves
as more nationally-based entities. End note.) In addition,
the RCD delegates said they had representatives in each
territory of the province. The MLC provincial representatives
also appeared to be well-prepared for elections, claiming
they were training elections observers and were establishing
offices throughout the province. The MLC delegates also laid
out to PolOff a picture of their party's political platform
and enumerated a list of immediate problems to be addressed
in Kananga, such as electrification and the establishment of
the rule of law.

--------------
UDPS ISN'T THE ONLY ONE MISINFORMED
--------------


9. (C) PolOff met with civil society representatives, who
attempt to serve as a conduit of political information
between the local population and political parties in the
province. Civil Society President Alex Mukanya and Vice
President Alphonse Kumwimba expressed many of the same
frustrations as the UDPS. In fact, the complaints heard from
civil society were for the most part a reiteration of the
typical UDPS line that Kasaians (and the UDPS) are the great
"martyrs" of the Congolese political class. Mukanya and

KINSHASA 00000380 003 OF 003


Kumwinba charged that the international community was
hypocritical for simultaneously demanding the UDPS take part
in elections but at the same time excluding them from the
process by not reopening registration centers. Mukanya said
the group was simply expressing the concerns of the voters,
but admitted they themselves did not understand why the USG
was not doing more to ensure "inclusivity." Other members of
the civil society delegation expressed their belief that a
"cabal" was working against the DRC. One representative asked
why the international community was imposing its choice of
president on the Congolese people, and why European Union
Development Commissioner Louis Michel was making decisions
not in the interests of Congolese.


10. (C) PolOff again explained the USG position that the CEI
had made the decision not to reopen registration centers, and
the USG and the CIAT supported the CEI's decision. PolOff
further pointed out that it was the UDPS that called for a
boycott of registration and the constitutional referendum,
and now therefore had to live with the political consequences
of that decision. Mukanya responded that Kasaians would not
respect or accept elections results so long as the UDPS is
excluded from the process, and intimated that violence could
occur if the process is deemed "illegitimate." PolOff
reiterated that the UDPS was in no way barred from taking
part in elections, and urged civil society to advocate for
calm before, during and after the vote.

--------------
THE CEI ADDS TO THE PROBLEM
--------------


11. (C) Part of the mistrust of the elections process from
political actors in Kananga comes from the poor preparation
of the CEI during the constitutional referendum. During every
meeting with political party officials, there was at least
one mention of how badly the CEI conducted voting operations,
and how ill-prepared the Commission is for national
elections. PolOff visited CEI's Kananga headquarters February
23 and came across a dilapidated structure with only a
handful of workers present. Behind the building, several
official CEI vehicles were in various states of disrepair.


12. (C) PolOff met with CEI provincial coordinator Ntambwa
Kapambu, who provided an uninspiring picture of the CEI's
activities in the province. Kapambu said his organization was
severely short of funding and was not able to purchase
additional vehicles for transporting elections materials. In
fact, he said his office actually has fewer usable bikes,
trucks and cars at its disposal for national elections than
it did for the referendum. Kapambu explained the CEI national
office has not provided additional funding despite his
requests. In addition, Kapambu said his office has no line of
credit to make any purchases, and still owes over 20,000 USD
for rent and other services incurred during the December
referendum. (Note: CEI officials in Kinshasa verified March 6
that such debt does exist, despite earlier claims that the
Commission had settled its outstanding balances earlier this
year. End note.) Perhaps most distressingly, Kapambu said he
had "no idea" who would be responsible for the civic
education campaign for the upcoming elections, and could not
provide any plan for one when asked.

-------------- --
COMMENT: MISUNDERSTANDINGS COULD BE MANIPULATED
-------------- --


13. (C) The population of Western Kasai seems prepared to
participate in elections but tension and the potential for
unrest lie just below the surface. As evidenced during a
variety of meetings with provincial officials, there is a
great deal of misunderstanding of the political process in
the DRC -- from the reasons behind the CEI's decision not to
reopen registration centers to the belief by the UDPS that
they are being actively excluded from the electoral process.
This sense of disenfranchisement and martyrdom are simmering
flashpoints in the province which could easily be
manipulated. End summary.
MEECE