UDPS SECRETARY GENERAL PREPARING FOR THE END

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000268

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: UDPS SECRETARY GENERAL PREPARING FOR THE END


Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) UDPS Secretary General Remy Masamba is simultaneously
laying the groundwork for his party's conference and
preparing for its demise. Invitations to national UDPS
members to come to Kinshasa for the conference -- which would
be held sometime between February 28 and March 2 -- are ready
to be sent but Masamba needs UDPS leader Tshishekedi's final
approval before dispatching them. Tshishekedi so far has not
given his blessing, despite Masamba's repeated urgings.
Masamba said that of course if the conference is held,
Tshishekedi will be the UDPS candidate for the presidency.

SIPDIS
He continues to believe, however, that Tshishekedi will not
actually run for office and indeed, probably will not even go
through the necessary steps to register as a candidate (and a
voter). (Note: Presidential candidates will have to come
personally to the Kinshasa headquarters of the Independent
Electoral Commission to register their candidacy. End Note.)
Tshishekedi already has mentioned to Masamba more than once,

SIPDIS
he says, that there is "no need" for him, Tshishekedi, to go
and register, especially since (President) Kabila is unlikely
to do so. (Comment: Actually, Kabila's handlers might be able
to persuade him to go because of the great optics, similar to
what he garnered when he registered to vote. Tshishekedi's
point, however, is that since he is at least as important as
the actual president he should not be required to undergo the
necessary formalities. End Comment.) Failing to come to the
CEI offices personally would also keep Tshishekedi from being
able to vote in upcoming elections, however, since as a
special concession to the UDPS leader the CEI agreed that
when UDPS candidates for office -- any public office --
register as candidates they may also register to vote if they
have not already done so.


2. (C) Masamba is convinced that, one way or the other,
Tshishekedi will not run and fears that the leader also will

SIPDIS
continue to try to block his senior supporters from running
as well, in a gesture of symbolic opposition to the
elections. Masamba says that he and many others will
therefore run as independents representing traditional UDPS
values. He says he has promises from "a large number" of UDPS
senior officials and founding members, including provincial
party leaders in the two Kasai provinces, that they will
pursue this strategy rather than see their interests (both
personal and political) minimized. Masamba hastened to assure
PolCouns that of course he would never do anything to
undercut Tshishekedi, but at the same time remarked, clearly
agitated, that Tshishekedi is showing no regard for anyone's
future but his own. He blamed Tshishekedi for "destroying"
the UDPS with his ego, and predicted the virtual demise of
the party, although a rump element would continue to exist as
long as Tshishekedi is alive. Masamba said that once the
former-UDPS independents are seated in parliament he will
take charge of the group, which at that point can begin to
function as a party. He said that he has been engaged in
alliance negotiations with possible partners who could help
strengthen his group's position in the future Parliament.


3. (C) Comment: Masamba played out a similar game once
before, when he headed the independents element in the
combined parliament established by the sovereign national
conference. That "independent" group became the nucleus of
the now-UDPS. In Masamba's world view, history will repeat
itself -- somewhat, although this time he will be the new
leader of the new party, taking up the fallen banner (as he
put it at one point) of the UDPS. Whether things play out
exactly as Masamba envisions or not,the UDPS as a party is
indeed under great strain and could easily break apart, for
one reason or another, before elections. Meanwhile, Masamba
will continue to bide his time while playing the role of
faithful servitor to his (current) leader. End comment.
MEECE


NNNN