UDPS MOVES TOWARDS ELECTIONS KICKING AND SCREAMING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000247

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: UDPS MOVES TOWARDS ELECTIONS KICKING AND SCREAMING


Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: In a series of meetings, Union for Democracy
and Social Progress (UDPS) officials said the long-time
opposition party will participate in the upcoming national
DRC elections and is planning to hold a national congress in
February. These same officials, however, complained bitterly
about perceived unfairness in the current transition process
and about their exclusion from key governmental institutions.
UDPS officials also continued their call for reopening voter
registration centers to enroll UDPS supporters who they claim
boycotted the process. End summary.

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Some Party Officials Bow To The System - Reluctantly
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2. (C) PolOff met February 1 with UDPS spokesman
Jean-Baptiste Bomanza to discuss the UDPS's possible
participation in the DRC's elections. Bomanza began the
meeting by recounting the UDPS's history as the opposition to
former dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. He charged (comment:
erroneously) that his party had been "unfairly" excluded from
the negotiations setting up the current transitional
government and was being kept out of the political process by
those now in power, particularly the PPRD (the party of
President Joseph Kabila). PolOff reminded Bomanza that it was
the decision of the UDPS and its leader, Etienne Tshisekedi,
to decline ministerial and parliamentary seats offered to it
at the beginning of the transition and to boycott the voter
registration process during 2005. Bomanza countered with the
frequent UDPS refrain that the entire transitional
government, as well as the electoral process, was being
manipulated and corrupted by other political groups, and
therefore the UDPS wanted no part of what it views as an
illegitimate system.


3. (C) Asked what it would take for the UDPS to participate
in elections, Bomanza repeated the standard demand, i.e.,
the Independent Electoral Commission should reopen voter
registration centers so that those who had boycotted the
process (on the orders of Tshisekedi) could now register.
PolOff explained that the CEI had already decided that it
would not restart the registration process because doing so
would jeopardize the entire electoral calendar. Bomanza
protested that CEI President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu was
simply doing the bidding of the PPRD and the decision was
meant to exclude the UDPS from elections. (Comment: Aside
from the legitimate timing and logistics issues posed by the
UDPS demand to reopen registration, current registration
numbers indicate very high rates in the party's strongholds
in the Kasais, indicating that party followers disregarded
Tshisekedi's boycott call pretty much en masse. Moreover, any

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party officials who did not register to vote and wish to run
for office will be registered by the Independent Electoral
Commission at the same time they sign up as candidates. End
Comment.)


4. (C) Bomanza ultimately admitted, however, that the UDPS
will take part in elections despite what it sees as an
institutional bias, but will continue to demand that the CEI
reopen registration as the party did not believe claims that
doing so would delay elections. Bomanza also said Tshisekedi
would be the party's presidential candidate, and that the
party would hold a national party congress in Kinshasa, most
likely in February.

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Someone Must Be Responsible, But Not Us
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5. (C) On February 2, PolOff met with UDPS National Committee
President Valentin Mubake, who made many of the same claims
of corruption and unfairness against the transitional
government. Mubake said the current government should not be
allowed to organize elections because it had not achieved the
main objectives of the 2003 Sun City Accords (which
established the transition),notably to provide security
throughout the country. Mubake said current unrest in the
Kivus was evidence that the transitional government had not
accomplished the goal of establishing peace in the DRC.


6. (C) Mubake criticized the International Committee to
Accompany the Transition (CIAT) for "breaking its promises"
to the UDPS. Mubake (comment: incorrectly) argued that the
CIAT had agreed to reopen voter registration after the
constitutional referendum in December, and later reversed its
decision. Mubake said it was clear the international
community is working against the party by calling on it to

participate in elections without providing the same
opportunities as all other Congolese political parties.


7. (C) Mubake later claimed the electoral process was flawed
because of how electoral districts will be demarcated and how
seats in the National Assembly will be assigned. Mubake
presented two prior censuses -- which he claimed were
conducted by a Belgian professor and the Ministry of Interior
-- demonstrating that population figures in the two Kasais
(which are UDPS strongholds) were much higher than what
official registration figures from the CEI showed. Mubake
argued that the CEI figures were fabricated and therefore
would disadvantage the UDPS in areas where it would win the
majority of votes.


8. (C) Mubake said the UDPS will participate in national
elections, but the options being presented to it by the
international community were problematic. Mubake said the
UDPS was left with two stark choices: boycott the election
process in its entirety, or participate in elections under
current conditions. Mubake said the UDPS wants to find an
option between these two "extremes"; that is, a "political"
alternative which provides the UDPS with representation in
the transitional government and which mandates the reopening
of voter registration -- both of which have been previously
rejected. While reiterating the UDPS's decision to take part
in elections, Mubake at the same time warned that if the
party determines the process is "flawed" or "inequitable,"
the UDPS may decide to withdraw entirely.

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Presenting Excuses
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9. (C) UDPS Secretary General Remy Masamba, the self-declared
leader of the party's "pragmatists," took a more reasoned
approach. Declaring that the UDPS is prepared to accept the
CEI's decision regarding registration, Masamba told PolCouns
January 30 that Tshisekedi has instructed him to prepare both
a party conference and his presidential campaign. Masamba
said he is concerned that Tshisekedi's poor health will
effectively keep him from campaigning, which might, he
speculated, be one reason that Tshisekedi has remained
adamant about not taking part in the process. Having a
presidential candidate who only makes pronouncements from his
house in Limite (Kinshasa) would be almost worse than no
presidential candidate at all, Masamba said, but admitted
that he doesn't believe the party will nominate anyone other
than Tshisekedi Masamba said that, aside from health,
Tshisekedi might be reluctant to campaign actively because

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the UDPS does not have genuine widespread representation in
all eleven provinces, and arriving in a provincial capital to
a lackluster reception would be unacceptable to Tshisekedi.


10. (C) Finally, Masamba pointed to financial constraints
which are limiting his ability to organize a conference, much
less conduct a campaign. He noted regretfully that if only
the UDPS had taken part in the transition it would have been
able to accumulate resources which could now be used for
campaign purposes. Nonetheless, he said he would do his best
to organize a conference in February, since this needs to
take place before registration of presidential candidates
begins (which could be as early as the end of this month or
the first week of March, once the electoral law is adopted).
When PolCouns asked if Masamba really believed that
Tshisekedi would go to the CEI offices to register as a

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candidate, he glanced around, lowered his voice, and said
that he did not believe that Tshisekedi would "demean"
himself by doing so -- after all, Masamba added, Kabila
probably won't go in person so why should Tshisekedi? In
response, PolCouns reminded Masamba that unlike Tshisekedi,
Kabila is president of the country, and already registered to
vote besides, which means that he doesn't need to obtain
voter identification which can only be issued at the CEI
office. Looking startled, Masamba agreed.

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Comment: Stage Is Set
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11. (C) If the UDPS takes part in elections and Tshisekedi
loses, the party will claim that the elections were not free
and fair, and will contest the results. If the party doesn't
take part in elections, it will claim the same thing. Either
way, we anticipate problems -- possibly even some violence --
from the UDPS before and after elections.
MEECE


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