DRC ELECTIONS: ELECTORAL COMMISSION ANNOUNCES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001827

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: ELECTORAL COMMISSION ANNOUNCES
PROVISIONAL RESULTS FOR PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLY

REF: KINSHASA 1788


1. (SBU) Summary: The pro-Kabila Alliance for the
Presidential Majority (AMP) has won majorities in at least
five of the DRC's eleven provincial assemblies, according to
provisional figures announced December 1. The pro-Bemba Union
for the Nation (UN) coalition has won control of at least
two. Provincial assemblies will be seated in mid-December and
are scheduled to select members of the national Senate, plus
governors and vice governors, in January 2007. End summary.


2. (U) Provisional results announced by the DRC's Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) December 1 show the pro-Kabila
People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) won
the most seats of any party in the October 29 provincial
assembly elections, with 132. Vice President Jean-Pierre
Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) came in
second with 104 seats. Vice President Azarias Ruberwa's Rally
for Congolese Democracy (RCD) came in third with 42 seats.


3. (SBU) The RCD's victories will have an impact on which
coalition will ultimately control at least two provincial
assemblies. Ruberwa had officially proclaimed his neutrality
in the October 29 presidential race, and the RCD is aligned
with neither the AMP nor the UN coalition. The RCD won seven
and eight seats respectively in Western and Eastern Kasai
provinces, where no party or coalition can yet claim a
majority. It can control the balance of power in these two
provinces. The RCD also won three seats in Bandundu province,
where again there is no clear majority coalition.


4. (SBU) Based on current alliances, the pro-Kabila AMP
coalition has won majorities in at least five provinces, all
in eastern DRC: North Kivu, South Kivu, Orientale, Maniema
and Katanga. It has pluralities in Eastern Kasai and
Bandundu. It is currently even with the UN coalition in
Western Kasai.


5. (SBU) Bemba's UN alliance has won majorities in two
provinces, Kinshasa and Bas-Congo, both in western DRC. It
will also likely claim a majority in Bemba's home province of
Equateur, where the UN has claimed 49 of the assembly's 100
seats.


6. (U) Several parties aligned with Kabila's AMP fared well
in provincial races. Minister of Regional Cooperation Mbusa
Nyamwisi's Forces for Renewal coalition won 33 seats
nationwide, mostly in the eastern provinces of Maniema, North
Kivu and Orientale. Former Public Works Minister Jose
Endundu's Christian Democrat Party (PDC) won 19 seats
overall, 16 of which came in Bemba's home province of
Equateur. Another AMP coalition party, Pierre Lumbi's
Movement for Social Renewal, won 40 seats, primarily in
Orientale.


7. (SBU) Other big winners in the July 30 legislative
elections did not fare as well in provincial assembly voting.
Antoine Gizenga's Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU) won 34
National Assembly seats, mostly in Bandundu and Kinshasa
provinces, but won just 12 provincial seats, eight in
Bandundu. Nzanga Mobutu came in fourth in the first-round
presidential vote and his Union of Mobutuist Democrats
(UDEMO) took nine seats in the National Assembly, but it won
just five in the provincial contests.


8. (SBU) The eleven provincial assemblies are scheduled to
convene December 18. An additional 58 provincial deputies
will be added to the ranks of the 632 elected representatives
following the installation of the assemblies. These new
members will be self-selected from among the DRC's estimated
5,600 traditional chiefs ("chefs coutumiers") and will be
proportionally distributed based on the number of registered
voters per province. The addition of the "chefs coutumiers,"
scheduled to take place by the end of December, is mandated
by the DRC's electoral law to provide a representational
voice to the country's traditional community leaders. They
could determine the governing majority in provinces with no
current majorities.


9. (U) Once the traditional chiefs are included, the
assemblies will indirectly elect Senators, governors and vice
governors. Elections for the 108 national Senators is
scheduled for January 7; those for the 11 governors and 11
vice governors for January 16.


KINSHASA 00001827 002 OF 003



10. (SBU) The following is a breakdown of provincial assembly
results:

--------------
BANDUNDU
--------------

Bandundu's provincial assembly does not have a clear majority
coalition based on known political alliances. Kabila's AMP
has won at least 31 of the province's 77 seats, and Bemba's
UN has won at least 27. The RCD has won three seats, and the
remaining 16 have gone to unaffiliated parties or independent
candidates. Gizenga's PALU won just eight seats in its home
province; the party had won 25 seats from Bandundu in the
National Assembly elections July 30. The MLC won 12 seats to
the PPRD's eleven.

--------------
BAS-CONGO
--------------

The UN won a majority in Bas-Congo, taking 15 of 27 seats.
The MLC won just five seats, but was helped through its
alliance with smaller regional parties. The PPRD won four
seats.

--------------
EASTERN KASAI
--------------

The AMP won a plurality in Eastern Kasai with 27 of the
assembly's 61 seats. The UN won at least 16 seats, and the
RCD eight. It is likely the AMP will have the majority since
the UN coalition would need all ten unaffiliated seats, plus
the RCD, to control the assembly. The PPRD won eleven seats
to the MLC's six.

--------------
EQUATEUR
--------------

Equateur, Bemba's home province, was expected to be a clear
victory for the UN coalition, but it won just 49 of the
assembly's 100 seats, based on existing alliances. The PPRD
won a total of eleven seats, and was helped by its
partnership with former Public Works Minister Jose Endundu's
Christian Democrat Party (PDC),which won 16. It is likely
Equateur's provincial assembly will ultimately be controlled
by the UN coalition.

--------------
KATANGA
--------------

The AMP had a clear majority in Katanga's provincial
assembly, winning 56 of the 93 seats available. The UN took
just nine seats, while 15 independents, the most of any
province, were elected. The PPRD won 33 seats to the MLC's
three.

--------------
KINSHASA
--------------

Kinshasa's provincial assembly will be controlled by Bemba's
UN alliance, which won 27 of 44 seats. The MLC won half of
the province's seats with 22, while the PPRD took eight. PALU
won just two seats in Kinshasa, where it had won six seats in
the National Assembly elections.

--------------
MANIEMA
--------------

The AMP has the majority in Maniema, controlling 15 of 22
seats, while the PPRD will have six. Bemba's UN alliance won
just one seat in Maniema; none were won by the MLC.

--------------
NORTH KIVU
--------------

North Kivu's provincial assembly will also be controlled by
the AMP, which won 25 of 38 seats. As expected, Bemba's UN
did not fare well, winning just two seats. The PPRD has nine

KINSHASA 00001827 003 OF 003


seats to one for the MLC.

--------------
ORIENTALE
--------------

The AMP has a majority in Orientale province, where it
captured 51 of 88 seats. The PPRD won 21 seats and was helped
through its alliance with Mbusa's Forces of Renewal party,
which won eleven seats, and Lumbi's MSR, which won 12. The
MLC took seven seats; the UN 14.

--------------
SOUTH KIVU
--------------

South Kivu's assembly will have an AMP-led majority. The
pro-Kabila alliance won 28 of 33 seats, while Bemba's UN did
not win even one.

--------------
WESTERN KASAI
--------------

There is no apparent majority in Western Kasai. The AMP and
the UN coalitions have each won 17 of the 49 seats, and the
RCD seven. Either coalition would therefore have to win over
the remaining eight seats controlled by unaffiliated parties
or independent candidates to claim a majority. The MLC won
eleven seats to the PPRD's ten.
MEECE