DRC ELECTIONS: THE NATIONWIDE STATISTICS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001757

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: THE NATIONWIDE STATISTICS


1. (U) The DRC's Independent Electoral Commission (CEI)
announced provisional presidential election results November
15, giving President Kabila victory over Vice President
Jean-Pierre Bemba by 58.05 to 41.95 percent. A total of 16.2
million valid votes were cast, with a nationwide
participation rate of slightly more than 65 percent. More
than 2.6 million votes separated the two candidates.


2. (U) Kabila dominated in the DRC's eastern provinces, as
expected. He won 92 percent of the votes in the provinces of
Katanga, Orientale, Maniema, and North and South Kivu, an
increase of nearly 13 percent from the July 30 first round.
He also won significant portions of the vote in key western
regions. In Bandundu, the stronghold of his ally Antoine
Gizenga, Kabila won 39 percent of the vote; in Kinshasa,
where Gizenga is also popular, he won 32 percent. Kabila had
won just three percent in Bandundu and 15 percent in Kinshasa
in the last round.


3. (U) Bemba was similarly dominant in western and central
regions. He won slightly more than 78 percent of the combined
vote in Bandundu, Bas-Congo, Equateur, and Kinshasa
provinces. In the central Kasai provinces, he won nearly 73
percent of the vote.


4. (U) The average turnout rate of 65 percent is down almost
six percent from the July 30 vote. Participation fell
approximately ten percent in western provinces and nearly
five percent in eastern provinces. Turnout increased nearly
five percent in Eastern and Western Kasai provinces.


5. (U) The following is a breakdown by province of
participation rates and each candidate's percentages:

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BANDUNDU
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Bemba won Bandundu with nearly 61 percent; he had received
ten percent July 30. While Kabila won just 39 percent, this
is a 15-fold increase from the first round, when Gizenga
carried the province with 80 percent. Turnout was 50.63
percent, down approximately 18 percent from the first round
and nearly 13 percent from the December 2005 constitutional
referendum.

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BAS-CONGO
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Bemba won Bas-Congo by 74 to 26 percent. He won a plurality
here July 30 with 36 percent, compared to 14 percent for
Kabila. Participation was again much lower than the national
average and fell the most of any province from July 30
levels. Turnout was 51.59 percent, down more than 24 percent
compared to the first round and more than 10 percent from the
referendum.

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EASTERN KASAI
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Bemba took the central province of Eastern Kasai with more
than 67 percent. Kabila's overall share dropped 3.5 percent
compared to his first round total; he had won a plurality
then with 36 percent. Participation increased by slightly
more than three percent to 43 percent, helped primarily by
significant increases of 30 and 25 percent, respectively, in
Mbuji-Mayi and Miabi. In more than half the province's
districts participation was down nearly 18 percent.

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EQUATEUR
--------------

Bemba had his strongest showing in his home province of
Equateur, where he outpolled Kabila 97 to three percent. He
won this province in the last round with nearly 64 percent of
the vote; Kabila won two percent. Equateur had the highest
turnout rate of the DRC's eleven provinces with 84.45
percent, an increase of ten percent.

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KATANGA
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Kabila won Katanga with 94 percent of the vote, an increase

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of 16 percent from the first round. Bemba doubled his
percentage in the province, but from only three percent to
six percent. Turnout increased in Katanga to 75 percent, up
four points from the first round.

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KINSHASA
--------------

Bemba retained his majority in Kinshasa with 68 percent. Both
candidates improved their scores compared to the July 30
vote. Kabila went from just under 15 percent to 32 percent.
In districts dominated by his ally Gizenga, Kabila won up to
40 percent of the vote. Turnout decreased considerably, down
to 58 percent from the July 30 rate of 70 percent.

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MANIEMA
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Kabila easily won Maniema with just over 98 percent. He had
won the province in the first round with 90 percent. Bemba
took less than two percent. Turnout was 80 percent, down
nearly five percent from July 30 levels.

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NORTH KIVU
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Kabila also won in North Kivu with nearly 96 percent, up from
his first round total of 78 percent. Bemba improved from less
than one percent to 3.5 percent. Participation in the
province was about 77 percent, down nearly four percent.

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ORIENTALE
--------------

Kabila took the northeastern province of Orientale, but not
by as wide a margin as other eastern regions. He won more
than 79 percent here, up from his first-round total of 70
percent. Bemba had received five percent in the first round,
and increased this to 20 percent, carrying districts mostly
in western areas near Equateur. Orientale was the only
province where Kabila votes decreased in total number.
Turnout was down 14 points to 64 percent.

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SOUTH KIVU
--------------

Kabila captured his home province of South Kivu with more
than 98 percent. He had won here with nearly 95 percent in
the last round. Turnout decreased approximately six points to
84 percent, still well above the national average.

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WESTERN KASAI
--------------

Bemba won the central province of Western Kasai with nearly
77 percent. He had won a plurality here in the last round
with nearly 32 percent. Kabila, who took about 11 percent
previously, increased his share to 23 percent. Turnout also
went up in Western Kasai to more than 51 percent, an increase
of more than six points from the first round. Participation
was notably greater in western areas near Tshikapa, where
there is a large base of support for Gizenga, and where
Kabila realized some of his best scores in the province.
MEECE