BEMBA FOCUSING ON POLITICAL FUTURE IN OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001743

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO AADP CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: BEMBA FOCUSING ON POLITICAL FUTURE IN OPPOSITION

REF: KINSHASA 1740

Classified By: PolCouns DBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary. Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba has
effectively recognized he has lost the October 29 DRC
elections, but is laying the groundwork for claiming
electoral fraud. Nonetheless, he increasingly is focusing on
his political future. He told the Ambassador he and his
troops plan to move to a military camp on the outskirts of
Kinshasa temporarily so that their presence will not be a
pretext for violence when the electoral commission announces
provisional results. He called on the international
community not to ignore the opposition and remain engaged in
constructing the DRC's new democracy. He described working
"correctly" with President Joseph Kabila and senior
government security officials to defuse the November 11
violence. He acknowledged that both he and Kabila have
"crazies" in their camps who need to be contained. Bemba
would not commit, however, to a forthcoming statement urging
calm concurrent with CEI publication of election results.
Bemba appeared relaxed, and the atmosphere around his
residence did not suggest a state of alert. End summary.


2. (SBU) The Ambassador met with Vice President Jean-Pierre
Bemba November 12 for an exchange of views on the DRC
electoral process and the November 11 confrontation between
Bemba supporters and police (reftel); PolCouns sat in as
notetaker. The meeting took place at Bemba's private
residence on the riverside. Atmospherics were positive.


3. (C) Bemba said he did not know when the Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) planned to announce its nationwide
provisional vote count, but said the CEI had promised to give
him advance notice. He noted he had sent four letters to the
CEI alleging fraud and had not yet received any response, but
did not press the point in subsequent conversation. He
clearly laid the groundwork, however, for later claims of
election fraud. The Ambassador pointed out that Bemba has
some allies in his coalition who are extremists and capable
of provoking unrest. Bemba acknowledged that both camps have
their "crazies" who need to be contained, and asserted firmly
that he had passed the message to his men to respect the
democratic process. He said he wanted to be sure that he and
his camp are not the source of problems when election results
are announced.


4. (C) Bemba provided additional details on an accord to
garrison the greater part of his troops which the CIAT
learned of the afternoon of November 12. He said he would
move his forces, with the exception of a small number of
troops and their families, from his official and private
residences to an existing military camp at Maluku, just
outside of Kinshasa, prior to announcement of election
results. MONUC and EUFOR would cooperate to ensure security.
Bemba said he would move temporarily to the camp as well to
eliminate any pretext for renewed violence in the Gombe area
of Kinshasa. He said MONUC had agreed to take responsibility
for security outside his official residence downtown.


5. (C) Although Bemba did not specifically acknowledge that
he had lost the election, he spoke at length on the
importance of an opposition as a check on government and as a
means of preparing to govern in the future. He said that
African governments usually seek to rid themselves of
opposition. He called this "short-term" thinking and
expressed concern that Kabila's AMP alliance is moving in
that direction. He specifically asked that the international
community respect the position of the opposition as well as
the government in order to sustain the creation of a new
democracy.


6. (C) The Ambassador emphasized that the United States
intends to remain engaged. He said we would continue to
insist on the importance of a viable opposition and a
functioning democracy. He noted that a monopoly on power by
any party is dangerous and unstable, and that all should
participate openly and responsibly in the political process.
Bemba agreed with all points. Preliminary totals released by
the CEI confirm his strong base of support in the western,
Lingala-speaking half of the country. The Ambassador noted
that his party could win control of four or five of the new
provincial governments.


7. (C) Bemba's description of the November 11 violence
(reftel) stands in contrast to the confusion that contributed

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to the violence of August 20-22. It was evident he sees his
intervention as crucial to resolving it. He said he called
President Kabila immediately after learning of the initial
shootings. He asserted that he persuaded Interior Minister
Denis Kalume to order police forces to halt firing into the
air, which had alarmed Bemba's troops. He also claimed to
have convinced Congolese army chief General Gabriel Amisi not
to deploy troops to areas of the firefight. He similarly
said he convinced General Dieudonne Banza not to call out the
Presidential Guard. He indicated he was satisfied with the
contacts among the parties to end the violence,
characterizing his coordination with the various officials as
"correct."


8. (C) Bemba also essentially confirmed several agreements
brokered by MONUC. He said he had reached agreement for
joint patrols by his forces, the FARDC 7th Integrated Brigade
and the guards of Air Force General John Numbi of the
cemetery across the road from his downtown residence. Numbi
lives nearby and his guards participated in the November 11
fight. The cemetery has been a constant site of tension
among armed forces present in the area and was a focus of the
Saturday shooting.


9. (C) The Ambassador said that all parties should work
together to ensure that the current situation did not
deteriorate. Bemba repeatedly stated that his side would not
be the source of problems. The Ambassador emphasized that we
need to continue working together to ensure that people are
aware that a new era has begun.


10. (C) The Ambassador encouraged Bemba to make a public
statement at the same time of the CEI's announcement of
election results, reiterating a call for calm, and
potentially signaling his intent to continue to participate
politically in the DRC. Bemba demurred, vaguely stating the
content of any such announcement would depend on what kind of
response he got from the CEI regarding the election process.
He did assert again that he would do everything necessary to
ensure that MLC forces are not responsible for any new
violence, but would not commit to the kind of statement the
Ambassador was proposing.


11. (C) Comment. Bemba appeared relaxed and in good humor
and expressed none of the aggressive rhetoric we have seen
from some of his allies in recent days. While the usual
assortment of guards and hangers-on were around his house,
the atmosphere around the compound did not suggest a state of
alert. It is clear he can read the numbers and is focusing
on his political future. Moving his troops out of central
Kinshasa for the anticipated announcement of election results
will significantly reduce the prospects of armed clashes. In
addition, it promises to win him points with the same
international players whose support he will need to create a
viable opposition force to an expected Kabila government. End
comment.
MEECE