Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINSHASA1670
2006-10-28 13:35:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Kinshasa
Cable title:
DRC ELECTIONS SITREP 10/28, 1200
how-toVZCZCXRO3084 PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN DE RUEHKI #1670/01 3011335 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 281335Z OCT 06 FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5062 INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001670
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS SITREP 10/28, 1200
REF: KINSHASA 1664
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001670
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS SITREP 10/28, 1200
REF: KINSHASA 1664
1. (U) Summary: The Democratic Republic of Congo remains calm
on the eve of the October 29 presidential and provincial
elections. Official campaigning ended at midnight October 27
and there have been no reports since of serious incidents in
Kinshasa or elsewhere. Voting will begin at 0600 local time
October 29 and end at 1700, at which time poll workers will
immediately begin hand-counting ballots. The Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) plans to announce provisional
results of the presidential race no later than November 19.
Provisional results for the provincial assemblies are not
expected until December 5. End summary.
2. (U) The October 29 DRC presidential contest is a run-off
between President Joseph Kabila and Vice President
Jean-Pierre Bemba, who won 44.8 percent and 20 percent,
respectively, in the July 30 first round. Voters will also
choose from among 14,637 candidates to fill 632 seats in the
DRC's 11 new provincial assemblies.
3. (U) Nearly 18 million voters participated in the July 30
elections out of the 25.4 million registered voters. Many
observers expect turnout to be slightly higher for the second
round, although weather conditions could have an impact. Some
two-thirds of the country is now in the rainy reason, unlike
during the July vote. Heavy rains in many parts of the
country could lower turnout and make roads impassable,
creating significant delays in the collection and counting of
ballots.
4. (U) Kabila and Bemba each gave interviews to the national
and international press during the last days of the campaign
that laid out their post-election priorities. Kabila said
that after the elections he would focus on five main areas:
employment, infrastructure, water and electricity, education,
and health. He promised that after October 29 he would meet
with Bemba to urge the population to remain peaceful as
results are announced. Kabila said a "government of national
unity" would be ineffective, but stated he would extend his
hand to the opposition, including Bemba's Movement for the
Liberation of Congo (MLC) party to help bring the country
together.
5. (U) Bemba spoke October 26 with Radio France International
to outline his vision of an MLC-led government. He said his
first priorities would be to re-establish security throughout
the country and to guarantee equitable distribution of the
country's resources and wealth. Bemba promised that, if
elected, he would ensure Kabila's personal security and
invite his party to participate in governing. Bemba said if
he were to lose he would accept the results and join the
opposition so long as the elections were judged fair and
transparent.
6. (U) The International Committee to Accompany the
Transition (CIAT) released a statement October 27
congratulating the Congolese people for having chosen a
peaceful path despite the difficulties of the transitional
period. The CIAT ambassadors said the following days were the
most important for the nation and emphasized that no one will
accept a return to violence and destruction. The declaration
called on all candidates, particularly Kabila and Bemba, to
place the destiny of their country before personal or
partisan interests.
7. (U) The leaders of the DRC's largest religious groups also
called on Congolese to remain peaceful in the coming weeks.
Cheik Abdallah Mangala of the Congolese Islamic community
urged voters to turn out in large numbers to choose their
future leaders wisely. Mangala said the DRC's religious
communities will be deploying some 50,000 observers to
monitor the elections.
--------------
UPDATE ON PROVINCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
--------------
8. (U) Bandundu province has not witnessed any major violence
during the campaign period. The region voted heavily for its
native son, Antoine Gizenga of the Unified Lumumbist Party
(PALU) July 30, giving him 80 percent. Bemba won nearly 10
percent of the Bandundu vote, Kabila won less than three
percent. Gizenga and PALU formed an alliance with Kabila and
his Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) for the
second round. Bandundu has 2.9 million registered voters, 69
percent of which turned out in the first round.
KINSHASA 00001670 002 OF 002
9. (U) Bas-Congo has also remained peaceful. Bemba won a
first-round plurality of votes there with 36 percent. Kabila
won nearly 14 percent. Justine Kasa-Vubu and Oscar Kashala,
both of whom won approximately 7 percent, have joined Bemba's
Union for the Nation alliance. Turnout was slightly higher
than the national average with 76 percent.
10. (U) Eastern Kasai, a stronghold of the Union for
Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS),had the lowest turnout
in the country, at 39 percent. Kabila won a plurality with 36
percent. Bemba won just 15 percent, Kashala won 18 percent,
and Joseph Olenghankoy, another new Bemba ally, slightly more
than nine percent. Several voting stations in Mbuji-Mayi and
Mwene Ditu were destroyed the day before the July 30
election, although the situation since has been calm. In
Lodja to the north, several clashes have occurred between
Bemba and Kabila supporters, and tensions are high in the
city.
11. (U) Equateur, Bemba's home province, has seen several
campaign-related acts of violence. Scattered clashes between
Bemba and Kabila partisans took place during October in the
provincial capital of Mbandaka. Kabila ally Nzanga Mobutu was
trapped in a firefight in Gbadolite October 26 (reftel).
Bemba won the majority of Equateur votes with 64 percent,
while Nzanga won nearly 31 percent. Kabila won less than two
percent. Turnout in Equateur was also relatively high at 74
percent.
12. (U) Katanga is one of Kabila's eastern strongholds. He
won nearly 78 of the vote there, which had a 72 percent
first-round turnout. Sporadic violence has taken place in the
capital of Lubumbashi during the past two weeks. Bemba
posters have been torn down and his supporters stoned by
pro-Kabila crowds. Bemba won less than four percent of the
Katanga vote in the last round.
13. (U) Maniema has seen few acts of politically-related
violence during the campaign; no major problems have been
reported. The province overwhelmingly voted for Kabila in the
first round, giving him 90 percent of the vote. Turnout was
also high at 85 percent. Bemba received less than one-half of
one percent of the province's vote.
14. (U) North Kivu, another eastern province, has been
generally calm, but many there remain worried about renegade
General Laurent Nkunda, whose actions are a constant source
of rumor and speculation. Turnout was well above the national
average, with 81 percent voting in the first round. Kabila
won the province with 78 percent of the vote. Bemba fared
poorly in the province, winning less than one percent of the
vote, but is now supported by Nkunda.
15. (U) Orientale province in the northeast, where turnout
was nearly 78 percent, strongly supported Kabila in the first
round. He won 70 percent of the vote to Bemba's five percent.
Nzanga Mobutu won five percent primarily from districts in
the western part of the province bordering Equateur. Ituri
District in the eastern part of the province has been
generally calm, although several militia groups there have
yet to disarm after signing a cease-fire accord in July.
16. (U) South Kivu is another Kabila stronghold; he won
nearly 95 percent of the votes there. Participation was the
highest in the DRC at more than 90 percent. Bemba won less
than one percent. The security situation has remained
relatively calm, if tense due to the continued presence of
the FDLR and undisciplined Congolese army troops. The region
did not experience any security problems in the last round of
elections.
17. (U) Western Kasai has been largely peaceful except for
isolated acts of vandalism and political intolerance in
Mweka, where several voting centers had been burned during
the first-round voting. The UDPS, which has boycotted
elections, is popular in the province, which had only a 45
percent turnout on July 30. Bemba won a plurality of Western
Kasai votes with 32 percent, new ally Kashala won nearly 18
percent. Kabila won approximately 11 percent of the vote,
while Gizenga won 15 percent.
MEECE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS SITREP 10/28, 1200
REF: KINSHASA 1664
1. (U) Summary: The Democratic Republic of Congo remains calm
on the eve of the October 29 presidential and provincial
elections. Official campaigning ended at midnight October 27
and there have been no reports since of serious incidents in
Kinshasa or elsewhere. Voting will begin at 0600 local time
October 29 and end at 1700, at which time poll workers will
immediately begin hand-counting ballots. The Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) plans to announce provisional
results of the presidential race no later than November 19.
Provisional results for the provincial assemblies are not
expected until December 5. End summary.
2. (U) The October 29 DRC presidential contest is a run-off
between President Joseph Kabila and Vice President
Jean-Pierre Bemba, who won 44.8 percent and 20 percent,
respectively, in the July 30 first round. Voters will also
choose from among 14,637 candidates to fill 632 seats in the
DRC's 11 new provincial assemblies.
3. (U) Nearly 18 million voters participated in the July 30
elections out of the 25.4 million registered voters. Many
observers expect turnout to be slightly higher for the second
round, although weather conditions could have an impact. Some
two-thirds of the country is now in the rainy reason, unlike
during the July vote. Heavy rains in many parts of the
country could lower turnout and make roads impassable,
creating significant delays in the collection and counting of
ballots.
4. (U) Kabila and Bemba each gave interviews to the national
and international press during the last days of the campaign
that laid out their post-election priorities. Kabila said
that after the elections he would focus on five main areas:
employment, infrastructure, water and electricity, education,
and health. He promised that after October 29 he would meet
with Bemba to urge the population to remain peaceful as
results are announced. Kabila said a "government of national
unity" would be ineffective, but stated he would extend his
hand to the opposition, including Bemba's Movement for the
Liberation of Congo (MLC) party to help bring the country
together.
5. (U) Bemba spoke October 26 with Radio France International
to outline his vision of an MLC-led government. He said his
first priorities would be to re-establish security throughout
the country and to guarantee equitable distribution of the
country's resources and wealth. Bemba promised that, if
elected, he would ensure Kabila's personal security and
invite his party to participate in governing. Bemba said if
he were to lose he would accept the results and join the
opposition so long as the elections were judged fair and
transparent.
6. (U) The International Committee to Accompany the
Transition (CIAT) released a statement October 27
congratulating the Congolese people for having chosen a
peaceful path despite the difficulties of the transitional
period. The CIAT ambassadors said the following days were the
most important for the nation and emphasized that no one will
accept a return to violence and destruction. The declaration
called on all candidates, particularly Kabila and Bemba, to
place the destiny of their country before personal or
partisan interests.
7. (U) The leaders of the DRC's largest religious groups also
called on Congolese to remain peaceful in the coming weeks.
Cheik Abdallah Mangala of the Congolese Islamic community
urged voters to turn out in large numbers to choose their
future leaders wisely. Mangala said the DRC's religious
communities will be deploying some 50,000 observers to
monitor the elections.
--------------
UPDATE ON PROVINCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
--------------
8. (U) Bandundu province has not witnessed any major violence
during the campaign period. The region voted heavily for its
native son, Antoine Gizenga of the Unified Lumumbist Party
(PALU) July 30, giving him 80 percent. Bemba won nearly 10
percent of the Bandundu vote, Kabila won less than three
percent. Gizenga and PALU formed an alliance with Kabila and
his Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) for the
second round. Bandundu has 2.9 million registered voters, 69
percent of which turned out in the first round.
KINSHASA 00001670 002 OF 002
9. (U) Bas-Congo has also remained peaceful. Bemba won a
first-round plurality of votes there with 36 percent. Kabila
won nearly 14 percent. Justine Kasa-Vubu and Oscar Kashala,
both of whom won approximately 7 percent, have joined Bemba's
Union for the Nation alliance. Turnout was slightly higher
than the national average with 76 percent.
10. (U) Eastern Kasai, a stronghold of the Union for
Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS),had the lowest turnout
in the country, at 39 percent. Kabila won a plurality with 36
percent. Bemba won just 15 percent, Kashala won 18 percent,
and Joseph Olenghankoy, another new Bemba ally, slightly more
than nine percent. Several voting stations in Mbuji-Mayi and
Mwene Ditu were destroyed the day before the July 30
election, although the situation since has been calm. In
Lodja to the north, several clashes have occurred between
Bemba and Kabila supporters, and tensions are high in the
city.
11. (U) Equateur, Bemba's home province, has seen several
campaign-related acts of violence. Scattered clashes between
Bemba and Kabila partisans took place during October in the
provincial capital of Mbandaka. Kabila ally Nzanga Mobutu was
trapped in a firefight in Gbadolite October 26 (reftel).
Bemba won the majority of Equateur votes with 64 percent,
while Nzanga won nearly 31 percent. Kabila won less than two
percent. Turnout in Equateur was also relatively high at 74
percent.
12. (U) Katanga is one of Kabila's eastern strongholds. He
won nearly 78 of the vote there, which had a 72 percent
first-round turnout. Sporadic violence has taken place in the
capital of Lubumbashi during the past two weeks. Bemba
posters have been torn down and his supporters stoned by
pro-Kabila crowds. Bemba won less than four percent of the
Katanga vote in the last round.
13. (U) Maniema has seen few acts of politically-related
violence during the campaign; no major problems have been
reported. The province overwhelmingly voted for Kabila in the
first round, giving him 90 percent of the vote. Turnout was
also high at 85 percent. Bemba received less than one-half of
one percent of the province's vote.
14. (U) North Kivu, another eastern province, has been
generally calm, but many there remain worried about renegade
General Laurent Nkunda, whose actions are a constant source
of rumor and speculation. Turnout was well above the national
average, with 81 percent voting in the first round. Kabila
won the province with 78 percent of the vote. Bemba fared
poorly in the province, winning less than one percent of the
vote, but is now supported by Nkunda.
15. (U) Orientale province in the northeast, where turnout
was nearly 78 percent, strongly supported Kabila in the first
round. He won 70 percent of the vote to Bemba's five percent.
Nzanga Mobutu won five percent primarily from districts in
the western part of the province bordering Equateur. Ituri
District in the eastern part of the province has been
generally calm, although several militia groups there have
yet to disarm after signing a cease-fire accord in July.
16. (U) South Kivu is another Kabila stronghold; he won
nearly 95 percent of the votes there. Participation was the
highest in the DRC at more than 90 percent. Bemba won less
than one percent. The security situation has remained
relatively calm, if tense due to the continued presence of
the FDLR and undisciplined Congolese army troops. The region
did not experience any security problems in the last round of
elections.
17. (U) Western Kasai has been largely peaceful except for
isolated acts of vandalism and political intolerance in
Mweka, where several voting centers had been burned during
the first-round voting. The UDPS, which has boycotted
elections, is popular in the province, which had only a 45
percent turnout on July 30. Bemba won a plurality of Western
Kasai votes with 32 percent, new ally Kashala won nearly 18
percent. Kabila won approximately 11 percent of the vote,
while Gizenga won 15 percent.
MEECE