DRC ELECTIONS: PALU CONFIDENT ITS MEMBERS WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001668

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PALU CONFIDENT ITS MEMBERS WILL
SUPPORT KABILA

REF: A. KINSHASA 1485


B. KINSHASA 1652

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: Close advisers to Antoine Gizenga, the
Secretary General of the Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU),said

SIPDIS
they are confident the party's supporters will vote for
President Joseph Kabila in the October 29 run-off election.
They confirmed that Gizenga himself will not campaign for
Kabila, but said their party is well-organized and will
provide Kabila solid support in Bandundu and Kinshasa. They
believe the Gizenga-Kabila coalition will unify the country
and eliminate the so-called East-West divide. PALU officials
said they foresaw some possibility for election-related
violence, but such incidents would be limited and easily
controlled. End summary.


2. (U) Top officials of Antoine Gizenga's Unified Lumumbist
Party (PALU) reviewed the party's outlook on the October 29
elections in a meeting with PolCouns and PolOff at PALU's
Kinshasa headquarters October 19. Gizenga formed a coalition
in late September with Kabila and his Alliance for the
Presidential Majority (AMP) (ref A),after having finished
third in the July 30 presidential vote with 13 percent. PALU
enjoys significant support in Bandundu and in certain parts
of Kinshasa, and won 34 of the 500 seats in the National
Assembly.

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GIZENGA WILL NOT CAMPAIGN, BUT BASE IS ORGANIZED
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3. (C) PALU spokesman Godefroid Mayobo, who was elected to
the National Assembly July 30, confirmed that Gizenga did not
plan to campaign for Kabila, even in his home province of
Bandundu, which Gizenga has not visited in years. The
81-year-old leader of PALU won 80 percent of the Bandundu
vote July 30, and 22 percent of Kinshasa. Kabila fared poorly
in both regions, winning less than three percent in Bandundu
and less than 15 percent in Kinshasa.


4. (C) PALU National Secretary Adolphe Muzito claimed
Gizenga's absence from the campaign would not in fact hurt
Kabila's chances. He said that PALU's party organization and
discipline and its long-held ideals of democracy and security
would be more important in convincing its members and
sympathizers to support the alliance and vote for Kabila
October 29.

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HOW SOLID IS THE KABILA-PALU ALLIANCE?
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5. (C) Mayobo maintained that Gizenga and his top advisers
are confident PALU's supporters will vote in large numbers
for Kabila. He said the Kinshasa-based party leadership has
been in regular contact with its grass-roots membership to
assess their opinions about the alliance. He said members
have agreed to support the partnership with Kabila, but
admitted that some among the larger group of Gizenga
partisans were initially disappointed. Both Mayobo and Muzito
predicted PALU supporters would vote solidly for Kabila in
Bandundu and Kinshasa October 29.


6. (C) Others are more skeptical. PALU's political director
in Western Kasai, where there is a significant PALU presence,
told us recently he expected no more than half the Gizenga
voters there to vote for Kabila (ref B). Senior advisers to
Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba tell us they doubt Kabila
will be able to win over PALU voters in Kinshasa (septel).
MONUC political officers do not believe that all of Gizenga's
first-round supporters will vote for Kabila, particularly in
Bandundu. In their analysis, Gizenga received most of his
votes as a protest against Kabila.


7. (C) Mayobo claimed that the party's efforts to explain how
the alliance would help unify the country is what will
convince PALU supporters to vote for Kabila. He said that the
first-round results made many fear a split in the country
between Kabila voters in the East and Bemba's in the West.
Mayobo said the PALU-AMP coalition will bridge that gap. In
his telling, PALU voters will support Kabila in order to
eliminate any divisions between the country's East and West.

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SOME VIOLENCE LIKELY, BUT WILL BE LIMITED
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8. (C) Mayobo told us the party had some concerns about
election security, highlighting manipulation of students, the
unemployed and "shegues" (Congolese street gangs) by Bemba
and his allies. Mayobo claimed that Bemba partisans and
members of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress are
paying shegues to harass voters and candidates, distribute
leaflets containing rumors intended to discredit Kabila, and
create the impression of insecurity. Both Mayobo and Muzito
concurred that such incidents would be limited and easily
controlled by security forces. Muzito said Bemba's MLC party
would not be able to deploy "sufficient forces" to prevent
PALU from campaigning for Kabila.

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COMMENT: PALU SUPPORT NOT A SURE THING
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9. (C) Voting for Kabila will require a large leap of faith
for the PALU partisans who voted loyally for Gizenga July 30
and supported his cause for years. Many Gizenga voters will
not be willing to take that leap, and neither Kabila nor
Gizenga has made the personal effort to woo PALU electors
whose votes Kabila needs October 29 to cut into Bemba's
support in Bandundu and Kinshasa. End comment.

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BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES
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10. (U) Godefroid Mayobo is the spokesman for PALU and was
recently elected as a National Assembly representative
from Kinshasa. Born on September 11, 1954, he was trained as
a mechanical engineer. He taught engineering at the
University of Kinshasa and the Institute of Applied Technical
Arts in Kinshasa.


11. (U) Adolphe Muzito is PALU's National Secretary for
Finance. Muzito was a member of the DRC's transitional
parliament and is currently running for a seat in Kinshasa's
provincial assembly. Born in 1957, he is trained as an
economist and has worked as a financial inspector.
MEECE