DRC ELECTIONS: KASAIAN VOTES WILL BE KEY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001652

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KASAIAN VOTES WILL BE KEY FOR
PRESIDENTIAL WINNER

REF: A. KINSHASA 1642


B. KINSHASA 1644

C. KINSHASA 1591

D. KINSHASA 1540

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: Western and Eastern Kasai provinces are a key
battleground in the October 29 presidential election. The
over two million voters who abstained in the July 30 first
round could be crucial to victory for President Joseph Kabila
or Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba. Neither obtained a
majority of votes in either province during the July 30
balloting. Kabila won some support in rural regions in the
Kasais, but fared poorly in the cities. Bemba was strong in
Kasaian cities, but needs first-round turnout there to
significantly improve in order to make up a large nationwide
deficit. End summary.

--------------
NEITHER CANDIDATE A CLEAR FAVORITE
--------------


2. (U) The majority of voters in Eastern and Western Kasai
provinces are up for grabs in the October 29 DRC elections.
Neither Kabila nor Bemba won a majority in either province in
the July 30 first round, and turnout was below the national
average. The estimated 2.3 million voters in both provinces
who abstained in the first round represent over half the
margin that separated Kabila and Bemba in the final tally.
Bemba scored a 32 percent plurality in Western Kasai and
Kabila a 36 percent plurality in Eastern Kasai.


3. (U) Participation is expected to increase this time (ref
A),and these votes will be critical for both candidates.
Kabila has maxed out his voter turnout and support in eastern
DRC. Bemba's new ally Oscar Kashala (ref B) can not assure
Bemba a majority, even if the 18 percent Kashala won in both
provinces fall into line this time. Neither candidate was
endorsed by the dominant Kasaian political party, the Union
for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS).

-------------- --------------
BEMBA LEADS IN THE CITIES, KABILA IN THE INTERIOR
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Most Kasaian observers told us earlier this month they
expect the presidential race to be close in both provinces.
They expect Bemba to win in urban areas, particularly the
provincial capitals of Kananga and Mbuji-Mayi. Voters there
are largely hostile to Kabila, blaming him for their economic
and social woes. Kananga's Catholic Vicar-General Monsignor
Lufuta Mujanyi told us many Kasaians view Kabila as a liar
for not having fulfilled promises to bring water and
electricity to the city, and will vote Bemba to punish
Kabila. Similarly, Eastern Kasai's former vice-governor
Patrick Baluba (a member of the RCD party) said voters in
Mbuji-Mayi are more likely to cast their ballots to hurt
Kabila rather than out of loyalty to Bemba.


5. (SBU) These same observers expect Kabila to carry the
rural vote. In the July 30 contest, Kabila won most of his
Eastern Kasai votes in the rural areas of Kabinda and
Sankuru. MONUC-Kananga Head of Office Jean-Victor Nkolo told
us October 1 that Kabila supporters in Western Kasai have
more money to spend than their opponents and have established
a broad-based campaign structure to target rural voters.
Kabila did poorly in Western Kasai in the first round, but
Nkolo said his supporters had organized a much better
campaign this time.

--------------
KEY FACTORS: PARTICIPATION AND PERSONALITIES
--------------


6. (SBU) Two key factors in this urban-rural dynamic are
voter participation and the force of personalities. More
people live in cities such as Kananga, Tshikapa, Mbuji-Mayi,
and Mwene Ditu, but turnout rates there were much lower than
the sparsely populated rural areas. Mbuji-Mayi, with some
525,000 registered voters, saw a participation rate of just
17 percent, while in the northern city of Lodja, with about
170,000 registered voters, the rate was nearly 75 percent.
Kabila won Lodja with nearly 82 percent of the vote.


7. (C) As is the case throughout the country, personalities

KINSHASA 00001652 002 OF 002


remain important to the Kasaian political equation. In
Western Kasai, Kabila enjoys the support of several popular
local figures, including former provincial governors
Claudel-Andre Lubaya and Tshiongo Tshibikubula. Lubaya and
Tshiongo both have strong networks throughout the province

SIPDIS
and are helping direct Kabila's campaign. Bemba's chances in
Eastern Kasai are bolstered by the support of province's
popular current governor, Dominique Kanku, who turned down a
National Assembly seat to remain governor (ref C). Kashala's
last-minute endorsement may benefit the Vice President
somewhat (ref D),but MONUC-Mbuji-Mayi Head of Office Mamady
Kouyate said Kashala won in the city in the first round
simply because he was the last candidate to campaign there.

--------------
HURDLES TO OVERCOME
--------------


8. (C) Both candidates face significant hurdles in the
Kasais. Kabila engenders strong animosity among those who
believe he has ignored development in the region and favored
the east. In Western Kasai, where he won just 11 percent July
30, he has no guarantee of picking up the nearly 18 percent
that went to Antoine Gizenga of the Unified Lumumbist Party
(PALU),with whom Kabila now has an alliance. PALU's
political director for Western Kasai, Serge Mwata, told us
October 2 that he expected no more than half of PALU voters
in the province to vote for Kabila in the second round.


9. (C) Bemba has logistical and financial problems. His party
is based in urban centers and has little capacity to campaign
elsewhere. MONUC's Nkolo told us members of Bemba's Movement
for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) party are reluctant to
provide funds for his campaign. The MLC's provincial
executive secretary Albert Usotshika admitted that it lacks
sufficient personnel to campaign in rural areas.

--------------
COMMENT: WILL FIRST-ROUND PATTERNS HOLD?
--------------


10. (C) Bemba must win both provinces to counter the strong
support in Kabila's eastern base, and he hopes to rally most
of the first-round abstainers in both Western and Eastern
Kasai in order make up his current deficit. By contrast,
Kabila could almost assure himself of victory nationwide
simply by denying Bemba votes in the Kasais. He could
theoretically take both provinces if first-round turnout
holds and he won the rural vote there. However, prospects of
increased voter participation in Kananga and Mbuji-Mayi have
enhanced Bemba's chances, and could complicate any Kabila
hope of carrying at least one of these provinces. There are
no indications, though, that the 2.3 million Kasaians who
abstained the last time, particularly in the cities, will
mobilize in sufficient numbers to counter the higher turnout
in rural areas. End comment.
MEECE