DRC ELECTIONS: SECOND-ROUND PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001578

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: SECOND-ROUND PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
KICKS OFF AT MIDNIGHT OCTOBER 13

REF: KINSHASA 1521

Classified By: Poloff C. Brown. Reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (U) Campaigning for the DRC's second-round presidential
race officially begins at midnight local time October 13.
President Joseph Kabila and Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba,
the top two finishers among the 32 contenders in the first
round on July 30, will have just fifteen days for their
campaign. During this period, the two candidates and their
respective political parties and alliances will be allowed to
post campaign material, run radio and television ads, hold
rallies, and campaign throughout the country; no such
activities are permitted once the campaign ends at midnight
on October 27. The runoff election will be held October 29,
and the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) has said the
provisional results of the presidential contest will be
announced by November 19. Final presidential results are
expected by November 30.


2. (U) The campaign for provincial assembly candidates began
September 28 (reftel) and will also close on October 27.
Provisional results from these elections will not be
announced by the CEI until December 5.


3. (C) The tenor of the presidential campaign is likely to be
highly charged and negative. The Bemba camp is reportedly
again planning to use the theme of ethnicity, questioning
whether Kabila is truly "Congolese." The High Media
Authority (HAM),however, has warned that media outlets
broadcasting messages based on appeals to ethnic or tribal
divisions risk being sanctioned. For its part, the Kabila
campaign will attempt to focus attention on Bemba's past as a
warlord. Some Kabila supporters have begun a whisper campaign
portraying Bemba as a would-be dictator and a "second
Mobutu." (Note: Ironically, Kabila has formed an alliance
with Nzanga Mobutu, the late ruler's son and head of the
Union of Mobutuist Democrats, who finished in fourth place in
the first presidential round. End note.)


4. (C) Per SRSG Swing at a CIAT meeting the afternoon of
October 13, Bemba's MLC has signed a code of conduct for the
electoral period, as well as a post-electoral agreement (with
some modifications from the original version). As of midday
October 13, however, Kabila's representatives had still not
signed on to either agreement.


5. (C) Bemba has indicated on several occasions that unless
he received a helicopter to replace the one destroyed on
August 21 during fighting between the Presidential Guard and
his security forces, he would be unfairly disadvantaged and
might therefore not participate in the elections. At the
October 13 CIAT meeting, the SRSG said the U.N. was prepared
to offer both candidates the use of a helicopter and crew for
the duration of the campaign. This would effectively
eliminate any pretext for Bemba not to take part.


6. (C) Comment: Though the campaign is likely to be nasty, it
will at least be mercifully short. And while it can not do
much to raise the level of political discourse, the CEI
appears set to pull off a reasonably smooth second round of
elections at the more than 50,000 polling stations where the
Congolese will cast their votes on October 29. End comment.
DOUGHERTY