DRC'S BEMBA FORMS NEW ALLIANCE TO COUNTER KABILA

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001505

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC'S BEMBA FORMS NEW ALLIANCE TO COUNTER KABILA

REF: A. KINSHASA 1487


B. KINSHASA 1485

C. KINSHASA 1471

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (SBU) Summary: DR Congo Vice President Bemba announced
September 23 the creation of a new political alliance, the
Union for the Nation (UN). It appears unlikely to bolster
significantly his electoral prospects in the October 29
presidential vote. End summary.


2. (U) Congolese Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba announced
September 23 the formation of a new alliance, the Union for
the Nation (UN). UN brings together many of the same 25
parties making up the Rally of Congolese Nationalists
(RENACO) that supported Bemba during the first round of
elections. It also includes a number of minor former
presidential candidates, many drawn from the so-called "Group
of 19" that had demanded "political dialogue" in advance of
the July 30 vote.


3. (U) In announcing UN's formation, Bemba condemned talk of
dividing the country along regional or ethnic lines, and
outlined his vision for the new coalition and the DRC. He
called the East-West division fictitious. He said UN aims
to be non-exclusive and to put forward leaders capable of
restoring the dignity of the Congolese people. He appealed
to voters who abstained from the July 30 elections to vote in
the October 29 runoff.


4. (U) Nine candidates who totaled less than four percent of
the first-round vote were among those who signed on with the
new alliance: Joseph Olenghankoy, Catherine Nzuzi, Roger
Lumbala, Justine Kasavubu, Wivine Nlandu, Pierre Matusila,
Gerard Kamanda wa Kamanda, and Raphael Mbuyi. Bemba's
first-round vote was 20 percent, Kabila's 45 percent.


5. (SBU) According to one report, high-ranking members of
both the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) (ref
A) and Oscar Kashala's Union for the Reconstruction of the
Congo (UREC) also signed a document supporting Bemba's
candidacy (septel). Some were seen in the audience at the
announcement of the new alliance in Kinshasa. A UDPS
statement signed September 25 by Secretary General Remy
Masamba and National Committee President Valentin Mubake
stated clearly that the party supported neither Bemba nor
Kabila. A subsequent declaration in support of Bemba was
issued on September 26 by some UDPS members, suggesting a
split in the party (septel). A spokesman for Kashala was
quoted in the Kinshasa press as saying his party had not
joined UN either.


6. (C) Comment: UN is clearly aimed at countering the
growing strength of the Kabila-affiliated Alliance for the
Presidential Majority (AMP) (ref C),but those who are
joining Bemba bring little electoral clout with them, and
promise little to improve his chances. For all Bemba's talk
of a unified Congo, most of the new candidates and parties
joining with RENACO to create UN are based in Western Congo.
The new alliance clearly aspires to be an "Anyone but Kabila"
coalition, but without Antoine Gizenga's PALU (ref B) and
Nzanga Mobutu's UDEMO, it looks less like a coherent
political force than a collection of sore losers. End
comment.
MEECE