Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINSHASA1412
2006-09-08 11:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kinshasa
Cable title:  

DRC ELECTIONS: PROVISIONAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4985
PP RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1412/01 2511131
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081131Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4749
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001412 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PROVISIONAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS
SHOW NO PARTY WITH MAJORITY

REF: A. KINSHASA 1386

B. KINSHASA 1102

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001412

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PROVISIONAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS
SHOW NO PARTY WITH MAJORITY

REF: A. KINSHASA 1386

B. KINSHASA 1102


1. (U) Summary: National provisional results released
September 7 by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) for
the DRC's next National Assembly show no political party or
coalition controlling a majority of the chamber's 500 seats.
According to the CEI figures, the People's Party for
Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) leads all parties with
22 percent (111 seats) of the tabulated vote. Vice President
Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo
(MLC) won a total of 13 percent (64 seats),while 63
independent candidates also won seats in the future
legislature. The announcement of the provisional results was
delayed for three days because of logistical problems and
reported attempts at falsifying vote counts. The National
Assembly is now scheduled to be installed September 22. End
summary.

-------------- --------------
PPRD TAKES PLURALITY OF SEATS, BUT NO PARTY HAS MAJORITY
-------------- --------------


2. (U) The CEI released the evening of September 7 the
provisional election results from the DRC's July 30 National
Assembly elections. The Kabila-affiliated PPRD won a total of
111 seats (22 percent),with the MLC taking 64 seats (13
percent). A total of 63 independent candidates were also
awarded seats in the future National Assembly, comprising 13
percent of the 500-seat Assembly. Antoine Gizenga's Unified
Lumumbist Party (PALU) received the third-highest vote count
with 34 seats (seven percent) overall, thanks to a strong
showing in Kinshasa and Bandundu province. In addition to the
PPRD, MLC and PALU, 66 other political parties won positions
in the national legislature; 31 of those parties claimed just
one seat. No party or coalition, however, gained a majority
of seats to control the Assembly and thus the right to
present a candidate for the position of prime minister.


3. (U) In Kinshasa's four electoral districts -- representing
nearly 12 percent of the National Assembly -- no one party
came out ahead. The 58 seats available in the capital were
spread among 25 political parties and three independent
candidates. The MLC won the plurality with eight seats,
followed by PALU with six seats. The PPRD and Vice President

Z'ahidi Ngoma's Camp de la Patrie party each won four seats
in the capital.


4. (U) Parties comprising the Alliance for the Presidential
Majority (AMP),a coalition of 31 parties which backed
President Kabila's presidential bid (including the PPRD),
have won an additional 49 seats, bringing the AMP's share to
160 seats, or 32 percent of the total. The Rally of Congolese
Nationalists (RENACO),which includes Bemba's MLC, has won 29
additional seats, raising its total to 93 seats overall, or
19 percent of the entire Assembly.


5. (U) Two other political parties hold smaller but
significant percentages of the overall totals. Minister of
Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi's Forces of Renewal party
won 26 seats (five percent),and the Social Movement for
Renewal (MSR) garnered 27 seats (five percent). Both parties
may be considered potential allies of Kabila's AMP, but
neither is as yet officially partnered with the coalition. If
both Forces of Renewal and the MSR were to join with the AMP,
the Alliance would have 213 seats (43 percent) in the
National Assembly -- still not enough to control the
legislature.

--------------
WINNERS AND LOSERS
--------------


6. (U) The latest results have shown more well-known national
politicians winning seats, although there have been some
high-profile losers as well. Among the winners in Western
Kasai province were the current governor Gilbert Tshiongo
(PPRD),former governor Andre-Claudel Lubaya (PPRD),Vice
Minister of Budget Tresor Kapuku (Rally for Congolese
Democracy, RCD),and former Kabila adviser Evariste Boshab
(PPRD). In Bandundu province, former National Assembly
President Olivier Kamitatu (Forces du Renouveau/ARC) and
Minister of Interior Theophile Mbemba (PPRD) also won in
their respective districts, although by narrow margins. Other
winners included Minister of Defense Adolphe Onusumba (RCD)

KINSHASA 00001412 002 OF 003


in Eastern Kasai, former Minister of Public Works and former
MLC member Jose Endundo (Party of Christian Democrats) in
Equateur, the current governor of Eastern Kasai Dominique
Kanku (MLC),and sports club owner and PPRD regional campaign
manager Moise Katumbi in Katanga. Minister of Foreign Affairs
Raymond Ramazani (MLC) lost his race for a seat in Orientale
province, as did the province's current governor Lola Kisanga
(RCD). The current governor of Kinshasa, Kibembe Mazunda
(PPRD) also lost in his district. Eve Bazaiba, the former
member of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social
Progress (UDPS) -- who was the only known high-profile UDPS
to run for any seat despite the party's election boycott (ref
B) -- lost her race for a seat representing her district in
Kinshasa.

--------------
WHY THE DELAY?
--------------


7. (U) The CEI had previously planned to announce provisional
nationwide National Assembly results September 4. The
announcement was pushed back to September 7 because of
logistical delays and other difficulties. CEI officials said
on September 4 ten CEI agents at the Kinshasa compilation
center were caught trying to falsify results in favor of a
candidate for the RCD party. While the attempted fraud was
detected and no results were altered, the CEI withheld
publishing the figures for three of Kinshasa's four electoral
districts in order to re-examine the results. CEI officials
said this re-verification process required a few extra days
of work, since there were 45 seats at stake involving more
than 2,400 candidates. In addition, results from 25 districts
in the interior of the country had yet to be transmitted to
CEI headquarters in Kinshasa for final confirmation. CEI
President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu said the delay in
releasing the provisional legislative results will have no
impact on the date for the second round of elections
scheduled for October 29. Instead, the installation of the
next National Assembly has been subsequently pushed back to
September 22 from its previous date of September 19. (Note:
The DRC's electoral law stipulates the National Assembly is
to be seated 15 days after the announcement of the
provisional results. End note.)

--------------
NEXT STEPS
--------------


8. (U) According to the DRC's electoral law, challenges to
the provisional legislative results must be brought before
the Supreme Court within the three days following the
announcement of results. The Court will then have two months
to deliberate on all challenges and issue its rulings.
Consequently, the validation of final National Assembly
results will not be made until November 12.


9. (U) In the meantime, as mentioned above, the National
Assembly will be seated based on the provisional results
September 22. According to Article 114 of the DRC
constitution, the provisional Assembly will be led by the
oldest elected member of the institution and assisted by its
two youngest elected members. (Note: As of September 8, the
oldest and youngest members of the Assembly have not yet been
identified. End note.) The provisional bureau will, by the
powers granted in the constitution, validate the office's
powers, elect and install the members of the permanent
executive office, and determine the internal rules of the
Assembly.


10. (U) As no political party or coalition won a majority of
seats, the two weeks leading up to the installation of the
National Assembly will undoubtedly be filled with
horse-trading and coalition-building. Among the 63
independent candidates elected, it is unknown how many will
ally themselves with the AMP or RENACO, or otherwise choose
to remain unaligned; nor is it certain which of the smaller
parties will declare the allegiances. Since the future prime
minister will be selected by the next President from the
ranks of the Assembly's majority party/coalition, each side
has a vested interest in gathering the required 251 votes to
claim a majority. Absent such a majority, however, the DRC
constitution stipulates that the President can nominate an
individual to undertake a mission of 30 days (renewable once)
to "identify a coalition" to lead the Assembly.


KINSHASA 00001412 003 OF 003


--------------
COMMENT: PREVIEWING SECOND-ROUND ELECTIONS
--------------


11. (SBU) The National Assembly results -- perhaps not
surprisingly -- are nearly identical to the first-round
presidential election figures. The Kabila-allied AMP
(including Forces du Renouveau and the MSR) won 43 percent
and the Bemba-allied RENACO won 19 percent, compared to
Kabila's 45 percent and Bemba's 20 percent in the July 30
presidential voting. The deals to be struck in the coming
days to form a parliamentary majority will definitely be made
with the outcome of the October 29 presidential runoff
election in mind. The composition of any potential majority
alliance, though, is unclear. Coalition-building will be
difficult for the Kabila and Bemba camps, particularly in
light of the August 20-22 violence in Kinshasa that likely
diminished the goodwill toward both candidates (although at
more cost for Kabila than for Bemba). In any case, the
creation of the National Assembly majority is worth close
examination, as it will likely give a good indication of the
results the Kabila-Bemba faceoff.
MEECE