DRC ELECTIONS: PPRD HOLDS SLIM PLURALITY IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001370

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PPRD HOLDS SLIM PLURALITY IN
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY VOTING

REF: KINSHASA 1231


1. (U) With approximately half of the DRC's electoral
districts reporting, initial election results for the
National Assembly show the Kabila-affiliated People's Party
for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) currently leading
all other political parties. No results, however, have yet
been posted for Kinshasa, which will represent some ten
percent of the total National Assembly seats, and will
presumably favor other parties. As of August 29, the
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) has finished counting
the votes for 86 of the 169 electoral districts, representing
192 seats in the 500-member National Assembly. According to
the preliminary results, the PPRD has won 51 seats (26
percent) thus far, 33 independent candidates have won
National Assembly seats (nearly 17 percent of the total
allocated),and Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement
for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) party has garnered 21
seats, making the MLC the third-largest group with 11 percent
of total votes cast. A total of 36 parties (not including
independent candidates) have won seats thus far, none of
which can currently claim a majority in the Assembly. The
future prime minister (who will serve as the head of
government) is, according to the DRC's constitution, named
from the majority party/coalition in the National Assembly by
the newly-elected president.

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PARLIAMENTARY RESULTS TRICKLING IN
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2. (U) The PPRD and the MLC are the primary parties in two
larger political alliances, both formed with the intention of
gaining a majority of seats in the National Assembly. Other
parties allied with the presidential campaign under the
umbrella Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) have
won thus far another 16 seats, providing a total of 67 seats,
or 35 percent of the total awarded thus far -- assuming the
AMP alliance holds in the new National Assembly. The MLC
leads the Rally of Congolese Nationalists (RENACO),which has
won 24 seats (12 percent total) of the 192 for which results
are known. (Again, this total includes the 33 MLC seats.) The
RENACO alliance thus far has a smaller percentage of seats in
the future National Assembly than all independents put
together. Independent candidates, however, are only loosely
affiliated and will likely not represent a uniform voting
bloc in the future National Assembly.


3. (U) The PPRD-AMP group has won seats in all of the 10
provinces reporting results. The alliance, as expected, is
strongest in the eastern provinces, having won 12 of 19 seats
thus far in South Kivu (which has 32 total),five of eight
seats in Maniema (12 total),and 19 of 34 seats in Katanga
(69 total). The MLC-RENACO alliance is stronger in western
provinces, but not overwhelmingly so. At present, the group
has won six of 16 seats in Equateur (which has 58 total) and
four of eight seats in Western Kasai (40 total). Independent
candidates have proved particularly popular in Katanga,
winning ten of the 34 seats awarded there thus far, and in
Eastern Kasai, taking six of the 19 seats (of a total of 39)
in that province.


4. (U) Through August 29, a total of 6,792,923 valid ballots
had been counted from the 86 districts reporting. Nearly
two-thirds of the seats decided thus far (118 of 192) come
from the eastern provinces of North and South Kivu, Maniema,
Orientale, and Katanga. The CEI is expected to announce
provisional national legislative results by September 4.
Based on these figures, the next National Assembly is
scheduled to be installed September 19.


5. (U) Several well-known political figures, including
government ministers and high-ranking political party
officials, were elected in their respective districts.
Minister of Budget Francois Mwamba, secretary general of the
MLC, was elected to a seat in Eastern Kasai province, and
PPRD Secretary General Vital Kamerhe was elected in South
Kivu. Former Minister of Budget Alexis Thambwe also won his
district in Maniema. Thambwe left the MLC earlier this year
to run as an independent candidate, and allied himself with
the AMP. Two other prominent PPRD officials won seats in
their races as well: Kikaya bin Karubi, Kabila's personal
secretary, was elected in Maniema, while Katangan Vice

SIPDIS
Governor Chikez Diemu won a seat in his province. In
addition, two candidates who ran in the presidential race won

KINSHASA 00001370 002 OF 002


seats in their home provinces. Roger Lumbala, president of
RCDN, won a seat in Eastern Kasai, and Pierre Pay Pay of
CODECO won a seat representing the city of Butembo in North
Kivu province. (Note: The DRC's electoral law does not
prohibit candidates from running simultaneously for different
offices. The only prohibition is that candidates cannot run
in multiple electoral districts at the same level -- i.e.,
legislative or provincial elections. End note.)

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JUDGING PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS
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6. (U) On August 29, the Supreme Court began deliberations on
challenges levied against the provisional presidential
results announced by the CEI August 20. According to CEI
officials, a total of eight cases were brought before the
Court, including one by Vice President Azarias Ruberwa's
Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD). As reported reftel,
Ruberwa has claimed the July 30 elections were "marred by
massive irregularities." The Court has seven days to review
and issue rulings on the challenges. The Court is expected to
announce its decisions by September 5, allowing the CEI to
declare final first-round presidential results by September

6. (Note: The original CEI calendar projected final
provisional results by August 31. Because of the violence in
Kinshasa August 20-22, however, the CEI and the Court decided
to extend the period for bringing forward electoral
challenges, thereby pushing back the date for a final
announcement. End note.)

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PREPS FOR THE NEXT ROUND
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7. (U) The CEI, meanwhile, has begun preparing material for
the next round of elections on October 29, which will include
the presidential run-off election as well as balloting for
provincial assemblies. CEI officials said August 29 that the
designs for provincial assembly ballots have been sent to
printers in South Africa, and will start to be delivered
throughout the DRC by the end of September. The ballot for
the second-round presidential election has been designed as
well. The CEI is waiting until a final ruling from the
Supreme Court concerning first-round results before sending
that mock-up to the printers.

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COMMENT: POWER OF THE INDEPENDENTS
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8. (SBU) The strong showing thus far of independent
candidates highlights the importance and power this group
could yield in the future National Assembly. As no party or
coalition to this point has an absolute majority of seats,
both the AMP and RENACO will be strongly courting
independents -- an effort that effectively has already begun
-- to control the legislature. Certain nominal leaders of the
group of independents -- such as Alexis Thambwe and Martin
Fayulu -- allied themselves in the campaign with Kabila's AMP
and are attempting to persuade others to join the coalition.
As noted, though, the independents do not speak with one
voice, and future allegiances will be determined more often
on personalities than on politics. The high percentage of
independent candidates elected also shows the comparative
weakness of the existing political parties, indicating that
political choices -- at least on a more local level -- are
being made based on the individual and not the party.
Whatever the causes, governing by consensus in the next
National Assembly is likely to be a complicated affair of
juggling the interests of a myriad of factions. End comment.
MEECE