Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINSHASA1300
2006-08-17 14:58:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kinshasa
Cable title:  

DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA LEAD SLIPPING BELOW 50

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3360
PP RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1300 2291458
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171458Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4619
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS KINSHASA 001300 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA LEAD SLIPPING BELOW 50
PERCENT

REF: KINSHASA 1293 (NOTAL)

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001300

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KABILA LEAD SLIPPING BELOW 50
PERCENT

REF: KINSHASA 1293 (NOTAL)


1. (SBU) As of August 17, initial voting results from
approximately 63 percent of the DRC's electoral districts
show incumbent President Joseph Kabila's lead narrowing over
Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba. According to the results
posted from 107 of the 169 districts, Kabila leads Bemba 48.5
to 16.2 percent. This is the first time Kabila's preliminary
vote total has dropped below 50 percent since results have
been made known, making the possibility of a second round
runoff election more likely. If no candidate wins an absolute
majority from the July 30 election, the top two vote
recipients will stand for a second round of elections
scheduled for October 29.


2. (U) One of Kinshasa's four electoral districts posted its
results August 17, providing the first glimpse of voter
preferences in the capital. Voter participation in this
district -- which is dominated by the opposition party UDPS,
which boycotted the elections -- was 70 percent, considerably
higher than the citywide average of 47 percent during the
December constitutional referendum. Bemba won the district
with 50 percent of the vote (213,485 of 429,485 valid votes
cast); Gizenga came in second with 21 percent (91,544 votes),
while Kabila was in third with 14 percent (61,406 votes) of
the ballots cast.


3. (U) The initial results of those districts reporting thus
far also show Antoine Gizenga gaining in the overall
percentage of votes. Gizenga now has 11.3 percent of the
reported results, up from his previous total of eight percent
on August 16. Nzanga Mobutu is in fourth place with 5.4
percent of the vote, and Oscar Kashala is in fifth place with
just under three percent.


4. (U) A total of 9,212,755 valid votes have thus far been
counted. According to Independent Electoral Commission (CEI)
figures, voter turnout continues to be around 73 percent in
the 107 districts having reported results. Of those districts
reporting, 53 are from the eastern part of the country, 44
are from western DRC, and the remaining ten are located in
the central region of the country.


5. (U) Preliminary results continue to show Kabila doing well
in the east and Bemba leading in the west. Of the 51
districts won by Kabila, 48 of them come from the eastern
provinces of Orientale, North and South Kivu, Maniema, and
Katanga. Bemba has won 23 districts thus far, with 20 of
those located in the western areas of Equateur, Bandundu,
Bas-Congo, and Kinshasa. All eight of the provinces won by
Gizenga are in his native Bandundu.
MEECE