DRC ELECTIONS: KASHALA SEES HIMSELF AS CONGO'S NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001251

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KASHALA SEES HIMSELF AS CONGO'S NEW
"POWER BROKER"

REF: A. KINSHASA 1231

B. KINSHASA 972

C. KINSHASA 927

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: Oscar Kashala is declaring himself an
"emerging leader" and "power broker" capable of deciding the
eventual winner of the Congo's presidency. Basing his claims
on an apparently strong showing in the Kasai provinces and in
Kinshasa, Kashala said he will come in third behind President
Joseph Kabila and Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba. Should a
second round of presidential balloting come down to these two
candidates, Kashala predicted there will be "serious
problems" and violence between the two sides. Kashala said he
is waiting to see the final results, but warned that "grave
issues" and "irregularities" marked voting operations. End
summary.


2. (C) Oscar Kashala, one of the DRC's 33 presidential
candidates in the July 30 elections, met August 4 with Rep-D.
Payne and poloff to discuss the post-election atmosphere and
his thoughts on the outcome of the vote. Kashala, absent any
official results from the Independent Electoral Commission
(CEI),claimed he was running a strong third nationwide in
presidential voting behind President Kabila and Vice
President Bemba. Kashala said he had won both Kasai provinces
by "heavy margins," was coming in second in Lubumbashi, and
was running third in Kinshasa. Kashala claimed his campaign's
internal numbers even showed that while he was trailing
President Kabila overall, he was winning nearly as many votes
as Vice President Bemba. Kashala said voting trends showed
that no candidate would win an outright majority in the first
round of balloting, and that Kabila and Bemba were likely to
face off in a second round. Given what he claimed is his
strong showing throughout the country, Kashala said he was
going to be the Congo's "power broker" in the next round of
voting.


3. (C) Kashala explained that his campaign had started off
with many problems and difficulties, including the detention
and expulsion of some of his security consultants and legal
advisers (refs B and C). As a result, Kashala said he was
unable to deploy campaign staff throughout the country,
ultimately limiting his operations. Nonetheless, he claimed
his political alliance -- the Union for the Reconstruction of
the Congo (UREC) -- fielded the second largest number of
legislative candidates behind Kabila's Alliance for the
Presidential Majority (AMP). Kashala said he eventually
mounted what he considered a "very good campaign," and that
voters responded positively to his message that "the Congo
belongs to the Congolese."


4. (C) Declaring himself to be an "emerging leader" in the
DRC, Kashala claimed his campaign has been approached by
representatives for both Kabila and Bemba regarding
post-election alliances. Kashala said he has made no
commitments yet as to who he might support in a second round
of voting since there is no final vote count. Kashala added
that he is "looking forward to the results" and will not make
any decisions until after the CEI announces final vote
tallies. (Note: The CEI will announce provisional
presidential results no later than August 20. End note.)


5. (C) Kashala warned, however, that a contest between Kabila
and Bemba would be "difficult," as both men are antagonistic
towards each other. Kashala said neither side will be willing
to accept the fact that the other won the election.
Consequently, even though widespread violence did not take
place before the July 30 elections, Kashala said there is
"much more potential" for it afterwards, particularly since
both Bemba and Kabila maintain private militias. Kashala
pointedly referred to several pre-election incidents between
Kabila's and Vice President Azarias Ruberwa's security forces
in Kinshasa, in addition to the violence perpetrated by Bemba
supporters July 27 in the capital, as evidence that "serious
problems" could occur.


6. (C) Kashala pointed as well to what he considered to be
many cases of likely "fraud" in the July 30 elections.
Kashala said he agreed with Vice President Ruberwa's "clear"
allegations (ref A) that voting operations were marred by
"irregularities" that may have had an adverse impact on the
election. Kashala said he had evidence of "grave issues"
concerning the vote, including pictures he had been shown of
ballots marked in his favor being found on the street, and

KINSHASA 00001251 002 OF 002


the television broadcast of used ballots allegedly being
burned. Kashala further claimed he had evidence of police
officers and soldiers voting in certain Kinshasa polling
stations. (Note: The DRC's electoral law prohibits active
military and police officers from voting. End note.) Kashala
also said some members of the government had effectively
"embezzled" funds to use in their political campaigns.


7. (C) Kashala promised he would be staying in the DRC now
that he is involved in the country's political affairs.
(Note: Kashala has lived in the U.S. since 1987. End note.)
Kashala said he "looks forward to playing a role" in the
development and reconstruction of the Congo, and is
especially interested in reducing the country's child
mortality rate and in increasing the availability of potable
water. Kashala said he wants to change people's perception of
the government, which has not provided anything for them in
the last five years. He added that the USG has not been
deeply involved in the DRC and needs to be more engaged if
the country is to succeed.


8. (C) Comment: Kashala is a political player to watch in the
weeks ahead. While no official election results are not yet
known, initial indications suggest that he won a significant
amount of votes in the Kasais and may have come in third in
Kinshasa. If there is a second round, the two candidates will
certainly want his endorsement. Kashala has made it clear he
is waiting to see who is left standing when the dust settles
after the first round; whoever he allies with later may just
be a question of who can offer him the best deal--again,
assuming there is a second round. In any case, Kashala has
told others he is already planning for the next presidential
election in 2011, and hopes to exert influence until then
through UREC's anticipated seats in the National Assembly.
End comment.


9. (U) CODEL Payne did not have an opportunity to clear on
this cable before departing the DRC.
MEECE