DRC ELECTIONS: BEMBA CLAIMING VICTORY ABSENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001223

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: BEMBA CLAIMING VICTORY ABSENT
OFFICIAL RESULTS



1. (U) Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba has already begun
claiming victory in the DRC's July 30 presidential elections,
broadcasting purported results via television and radio
stations he owns. Before polls even closed, the Bemba-owned
station CCTV began reporting "results" from polling sites
throughout the country indicating that Bemba was winning by a
wide margin over incumbent President Joseph Kabila. In some
instances, Bemba's stations declared the Vice President had
received more than 50 percent of the vote. The Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) -- which is the only organization
authorized to release election figures -- has not yet
announced any results, as ballot counting and compilation are
in progress. Any numbers being shown are, at best, partial
and not representative of the overall electoral picture.


2. (SBU) In addition to spurious media reports, a flier has
been circulating in Kinshasa which presents presumably "real"
presidential election results, indicating an overwhelming
Bemba victory in seven of the DRC's eleven provinces. The
"results" in the flier are clearly fabricated.


3. (U) In response to the CCTV and other broadcasts, the CEI
and the High Media Authority (HAM) issued a joint communique
August 1 condemning the "flagrant violation" of the DRC's
electoral law by publishing results. The communique states
that the HAM and the CEI are worried about the conduct of the
media, noting that the only figures that can currently be
published are those posted at the different polling sites
themselves. The joint statement also states that prematurely
proclaiming results risks disturbing the electoral process
and creating a dangerous climate of tension. The CEI and HAM
called on media authorities to behave responsibly. Finally,
the communique noted that in the case of future violations,
legal measures may be taken to sanction television and radio
outlets that break the law, including shutting down their
operations entirely, to preserve peace and national unity.


4. (U) The International Committee to Accompany the
Transition (CIAT) also issued a communique August 1 following
a special meeting to discuss post-election activities. The
communique noted as well the "abusive exploitation" by
certain media and political actors of partial and incomplete
election results. The CIAT statement said such acts cause
trouble and could undermine public order. The CIAT
underscored as well that the CEI has sole authority to issue
election results, and it encouraged the Commission to inform
the public regularly about the progress of vote counting and
the electoral process.


5. (U) DigitalCongo, a private television station associated
with President Kabila, has also been announcing selected
polling results. Not surprisingly, DigitalCongo's broadcasts
have reported Kabila winning significantly, mostly in the
country's eastern provinces, over Bemba and all other
opponents. DigitalCongo has not, however, declared Kabila to
be the outright winner of the election in the first round of
voting.


6. (U) Meanwhile, MONUC-run Radio Okapi on August 2 announced
partial polling results from various locations across the
country. Radio Okapi journalists, however, made a point of
stating that such results were not reflective of overall
numbers, noting that it is the CEI's responsibility to
publish provisional voting figures. Based on these selected
and very preliminary results, Kabila was winning by heavy
margins in eastern cities, Bemba was ahead in Kinshasa,
Mbandaka (Equateur province) and Matadi (Bas Congo province),
and Antoine Gizenga of the Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU) was
winning in Bandundu, his province of origin. While Radio
Okapi's results are more trustworthy -- and present a more
realistic electoral picture -- they are nonetheless
unofficial.


7. (SBU) Comment: There is a deliberate disinformation
campaign underway to influence public opinion about the
election results. With a significant information void and
most Congolese unaware of the next steps in the electoral
process, Bemba is calculating that he can create the
perception that he is the winner. It is unfortunate that some
Western media outlets have already carried stories reporting
that Bemba is leading.


8. (SBU) Comment, continued: The CEI is the only organization
which has the authority and the capacity to declare results,
and the Commission is expected to release provisional vote

KINSHASA 00001223 002 OF 002


tallies no later than August 20. Until that time, rumors and
misleading statements from candidates and their supporters
will only muddy the political waters, sow confusion, and
possibly lead to a rejection (by some) of the official
results. End comment.
MEECE