DRC ELECTIONS: SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE KASAIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001206

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE KASAIS

REF: KINSHASA 1185

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: Western and Eastern Kasai provinces have long
been political flashpoints in the DRC due largely to the
influence of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress
(UDPS). Rallies and demonstrations in both provinces have in
the past often devolved into violent clashes between
political protesters and security forces. The menace posed by
the UDPS on and around elections, however, is diminished from
years past. While some UDPS supporters will most certainly
take to the streets to protest elections and intimidate
voters, other issues pose larger problems for the region's
overall security. The presence of lightly guarded weapons
stockpiles, tensions arising from political hate speech, and
the training and conduct of police forces are significant
security concerns in both provinces that will need to be
watched carefully in the elections period. End summary.

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UDPS: A DIMINISHING THREAT
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2. (C) UDPS supporters have in the past held massive
demonstrations in Mbuji Mayi and Kananga that shut down
economic activity and created significant civil unrest.
Frequently, such rallies turned violent, with UDPS militants
throwing rocks, overturning cars, breaking windows, and
burning tires -- actions for which the party's Kinshasa-based
hierarchy conveniently eschews responsibility. Protesters
often clash with police or other security forces, resulting
in many injuries and deaths. The UDPS has a history as well
of bribing "shegues" (street children and youths) to commit
acts of violence, harassment or intimidation against the
local population -- with the goal of being able to claim the
UDPS itself was not responsible for resulting disorder. These
actions create an overall sense of fear in the Kasais, as
many citizens become scared to leave their homes.
Consequently, as was seen during the country's December
constitutional referendum, voter turnout was extremely low.


3. (C) Some UDPS militants will be visible on election day
trying to prevent voters from heading to the polls.
MONUC-Mbuji Mayi Head of Office Mamady Kouyate said he
worried the UDPS would actively try to intimidate potential
voters, which could lower voter participation and thus cast
doubt on the legitimacy of the elections (at least in the
minds of Kasaians). Kouyate added, though, that he believed
such tactics would be mostly ineffective and voters would
head to the polls in larger numbers than in December's
constitutional referendum. Already some UDPS sympathizers
have been intimidating and harassing candidates; during a
recent visit to Mbuji Mayi, the motorcade of President Joseph
Kabila was stoned by UDPS supporters. UDPS officials in both
provinces predicted to PolOff during a recent visit that
there would most certainly be violence on July 30 and
afterwards because "the majority" of Kasaians believe the
elections are rigged. Members of civil society in Kananga and
Mbuji Mayi share this perception, saying there are not enough
security precautions in place to prevent the UDPS from
upsetting elections.


4. (C) Other isolated incidents and acts of intimidation or
harassment have been occurring since official electoral
campaigning began at the end of June. Officials in Mbuji Mayi
have reported that several candidates have had their cars
stoned or damaged, and campaign materials in both provinces
have been torn down. On the evening of July 26 in Mbuji Mayi,
National Assembly candidate Albert Mukeba was the target of
an apparent assassination attempt. According to sources in
Mbuji Mayi, Mukeba escaped from the unknown assailants with
serious injures, while his mother was killed. Investigations
are currently underway into the incident. It is unknown,
however, what the motivations may have been regarding the
targeting of Mukeba; it appears, though, to be an isolated
attack and not part of a wider campaign to eliminate
political candidates.


5. (C) In general, however, the threat from the UDPS is
diminishing in the Kasais. As reported reftel, the UDPS no
longer enjoys the degree of support it once did in the
Kasais. The population has grown increasingly tired of the
party's rhetoric and lack of results stemming from its
continual boycott of the electoral process. MONUC officials
in Western and Eastern Kasai said the UDPS is mostly just a
"nuisance," and officers with the Armed Forces of the DRC

KINSHASA 00001206 002 OF 003


(FARDC) claimed that they had no worries about the potential
for violence coming from UDPS supporters. The governor of
Western Kasai Tshiongo Tshibikubula said the population is
"far less afraid" of the UDPS than it was a year ago, and
there is less support for the party's cause. As Kouyate said,
whether the UDPS in the provinces attempts to incite violence
or not will largely depend on what course the party
leadership in Kinshasa decides to take with regard to the
elections.

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MANIPULATING EX-COMBATANTS?
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6. (C) Aside from concerns about the UDPS, though, there are
several other pockets of potential instability in the Kasais
which have nothing to do with the opposition party. MONUC
officials in Kananga said one of their major
elections-related security concerns is the presence of a
large number of demobilized ex-combatants in and around the
city. Officials explained that since CONADER (the Congolese
agency in charge of demobilization) closed its demobilization
sites earlier in July, these ex-combatants have no one
providing them food or otherwise caring for them.
Consequently, this group has been growing increasingly
agitated and is regarded as an easy target for manipulation.
MONUC officials also said the regional military command has a
large stockpile of collected weapons in Kananga that are
reportedly not well-guarded, again offering a temptation to
any actors who may wish to take up arms after the elections.


7. (C) General Kasereka Sindani, the commander of the FARDC's
4th Military Region in Kananga, said the ex-combatants and
arms stockpile were no reason for concern. Kasereka said the
FARDC is "supervising" the ex-combatants and providing them
with some support until they can finish the demobilization
process. (Comment: It is unlikely the FARDC can provide such
assistance, as it can barely meet the needs of its own
troops. End comment.) Kasereka admitted there was a growing
restlessness among the ex-combatants because they have not
been paid. Kasereka said he worried this group may engage in
acts of banditry and illegal taxation, and perhaps some
isolated targeted assassinations of traders or local
businessmen for economic gains. Kasereka hastened to add,
however, that these ex-combatants would not likely take up
arms themselves to try to reverse election results, noting
that not many of them were really the "fighting types." The
general also provided reassurances that the weapons cache was
adequately protected at the FARDC base in Kananga, and said
it would be impossible for any outside forces to seize those
arms. (Note: PolOff did not have the opportunity to inspect
the weapons depot to verify Kasereka's claim. End note.)

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POLICE RESPONSE AND TRAINING
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8. (C) In Mbuji Mayi, the main stronghold of the UDPS,
officials said they were worried about the conduct and
training of police forces charged with providing security at
polling stations. Kouyate said the police have not been
well-trained, are not paid, and lack sufficient materiel such
as riot gear and radios. In addition, the ranks of the police
have been largely infiltrated by the UDPS, creating a force
that is sympathetic to the UDPS cause. If the security
situation deteriorates in Mbuji Mayi, many police officers
may not be inclined to intervene. Conversely, Kouyate said
because of the lack of training, the police often respond
disproportionately to security situations and are easily
provoked by demonstrators. The FARDC 5th Regional Military
Commander General Obedi Rwibasirsa agreed with this
assessment, saying he believed police forces posed the
largest security threat in Mbuji Mayi. Political party and
civil society representatives expressed their fears that the
police will be provoked by the UDPS into reacting violently
during demonstrations, further adding to civil unrest.


9. (C) On July 27, sources in Mbuji Mayi reported that
tension was rising between the police and the UDPS. At the
city's UDPS headquarters, police were reportedly barricading
the offices and not permitting party supporters to enter the
compound. Officials with the provincial governor's office
said they were aware of the confrontation and were issuing
orders to police commanders to bring the incident under
control.

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KINSHASA 00001206 003 OF 003


HATE SPEECH IN LODJA FANNING FLAMES
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10. (C) In the northern region of Eastern Kasai, the city of
Lodja is a political flashpoint with the potential to erupt.
Political campaigning in Lodja has been particularly
unsavory, with several candidates (or their representatives)
engaging in ethnically-based hate speech against their
opponents. The High Media Authority (HAM),charged with
overseeing the conduct and content of political campaign
messages, earlier this month sanctioned and suspended three
local radio stations -- which were affiliated with
legislative candidates -- for broadcasting hate messages,
which is prohibited by the DRC's electoral law. The political
atmosphere in Lodja has become increasingly tense, due
largely to ethnic factors. As political observers in the
Kasais explained, voters in Lodja are distrustful of
politicians not born in the city itself, and many have said
they will only accept those candidates who are "true"
Lodjans. The reaction to some candidates running in Lodja for
the National Assembly -- including current Minister of
Defense Adolphe Onusumba and Eastern Kasai Vice Governor
Brigitte Oyumba (neither of whom are from Lodja proper) --
has been hostile. The situation in Lodja is so volatile, in
fact, that MONUC military observers there have been
physically assaulted and humanitarian organizations have
suspended activities in the region.

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WEAPONS STOCKPILES A TEMPTATION
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11. (C) Adding to concerns about Lodja in the pre- and
post-electoral period is the presence of another stockpile of
weapons from demobilized soldiers. MONUC political officer
David Foncho said the FARDC has a lightly-guarded arms cache
in Lodja, and the military has been unable to transport the
weapons to Mbuji Mayi because the roads are "too dangerous"
to travel. Foncho added that MONUC, too, has been
unsuccessful in trying to secure a special flight to Lodja to
help transfer the arms. General Obedi confirmed the stockpile
was being guarded by just 12 FARDC soldiers, but added that
he has appealed to FARDC commanders in Kinshasa for an
additional company of troops to provide security in Lodja.
Obedi said because of the ethnic tensions prevalent in Lodja,
there are "great temptations" for some to try and seize those
weapons after the elections. MONUC officials in Mbuji Mayi
were equally worried about the possibility for violence in
Lodja, particularly if the FARDC weapons stockpile was not
adequately secured.

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NO WORRIES ABOUT THE FARDC
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12. (C) By contrast, no officials in either of the Kasais
expressed concerns about the FARDC itself. MONUC and regional
political officials all said that for the most part, the
FARDC in Eastern and Western Kasai did not pose a security
threat for the elections. Generals Kasereka and Obedi both
promised that their troops would be kept in their barracks
during the elections, and would only be used if called upon
by their respective governors to provide security. Kasereka
said his forces were well aware they could not take part in
elections and had been warned to maintain their neutrality,
particularly after elections.

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COMMENT: KASAIS LESS OF A SECURITY CONCERN
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13. (C) The fact that the UDPS is no longer the force it once
was goes a long way toward calming people's fears and in
diminishing security threats. Certainly UDPS militants will
provoke incidents in Kananga and Mbuji Mayi (which often
become exaggerated for propaganda purposes) in an attempt to
intimidate voters. Some pockets of potential instability do
exist and security officials are well aware them. The conduct
and training of police forces, though, particularly in Mbuji
Mayi, remains worrisome. End comment.
MEECE