DRC ELECTIONS: UDPS A WANING THREAT IN THE KASAIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001185

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: UDPS A WANING THREAT IN THE KASAIS

REF: A. KINSHASA 405


B. KINSHASA 380

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: The opposition Union for Democracy and Social
Progress (UDPS) -- which continues to boycott the DRC's July
30 elections -- remains a dominant presence in its
traditional strongholds of Western and Eastern Kasai
provinces. UDPS support and influence, however, are slowly
declining in the Kasais, as many potential voters consider
the party more a nuisance than a constructive critic of the
electoral process. Moreover, many observers say they believe
the UDPS no longer poses a significant threat in terms of its
ability to generate civil unrest, as the party cannot
mobilize the number of protesters it once could.
Consequently, voter participation in the Kasais for the DRC's
general elections is expected to be higher than it was during
the December constitutional referendum, despite UDPS threats
attempting to prevent candidates from campaigning and to
intimidate voters against heading to the polls. End summary.

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MISINFORMATION STRATEGY
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2. (C) Throughout the last months of the DRC's transitional
government, the UDPS's strategy towards elections has focused
primarily on attempts to spread misinformation and to
discredit the electoral process -- all with the goal of
sowing doubt and mistrust among potential voters. UDPS
rhetoric is largely based on the party's ardent belief that
its president, Etienne Tshisekedi, has been "excluded" from
taking part in elections. Consequently, without UDPS
participation, so the party's argument goes, elections cannot
be considered fair or valid. UDPS officials both in Kinshasa
and the Kasais have repeatedly warned that if elections take
place without the UDPS, there will certainly be violence
throughout the country after July 30. Brandard Tshimbombo,
the provincial UDPS president in Western Kasai, said if the
UDPS is not brought into the process, the DRC will inevitably
become "another Iraq" and descend into violence and chaos.
Tshimbombo said the only way to avoid that outcome is to

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renegotiate the entire transitional government structure and
restart the voter registration process. (Comment: Either
suggestion, if followed, would result in indefinite delays of
elections themselves. End comment.)


3. (C) Targets of the UDPS's jeremiads have included the
transitional government, the Independent Electoral Commission
(CEI),and the international community -- all of which, in
the view of the party, have conspired to keep the UDPS
outside the electoral process and the Congolese from electing
the leaders they want. The arguments often raised by the UDPS
against the electoral process, though, are more often
distractions than legitimate criticisms. For example,
Tshimbombo said the transitional government has poorly

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organized the elections and has rigged the vote in advance to
ensure President Kabila is elected. Tshimbombo said the fact
the CEI printed five million "extra" ballots clearly proves
the Commission is trying to commit electoral fraud. The UDPS
provincial leader added that the international community is
complicit with the CEI's machinations, as it is trying to
"impose choices" on Congolese voters and has "already chosen"
its candidate for president (i.e., Kabila). For each example,
however, neither Tshimbombo nor any other provincial UDPS
official could offer any proof. In addition, UDPS members
simply chose to ignore the explanations given by Independent
Electoral President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu. The UDPS (as
well as its allies) is thus laying the groundwork for
challenging the outcome of the elections, essentially
pre-judging results before they are even known. Even before
elections take place, UDPS officials in Mbuji Mayi said the
party will boycott the new DRC government, regardless of who
is elected.

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POISONED ATMOSPHERE
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4. (C) In the Kasais, the continuing opposition stance of the
UDPS has effectively created a poisoned atmosphere and a
great amount of distrust concerning the electoral process.
Already in Western and Eastern Kasai there is a great deal of
sympathy for Tshisekedi and the opposition party; the
criticisms of the government and the CEI merely serve to
reinforce that existing mentality. Many Kasaians PolOff spoke

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to during a recent trip to both provinces demonstrated the
depth of those sentiments. Monsignor Marcel Maduila, the
bishop of the Catholic Church in Kananga, said the
international community and "Kinshasa" (i.e., the
transitional government) was trying to "impose democracy" in
the Kasais against the wishes of the population. Maduila said
he believed the electoral "game" has been played by the
international community, and Kabila has already been chosen
as the winner. Members of civil society in Tshikapa said the
electoral process is not inclusive since the UDPS is not
taking part, and therefore elections cannot be considered
legitimate.

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THREATS AND INTIMIDATION
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5. (C) The UDPS has, however, backed up its anti-elections
rhetoric with tactics of intimidation and harassment in both
Kasais. Citizens in both provinces largely stayed home June
30 out of fear of reprisals from UDPS militants, who had
called for a "ville morte" to protest against the "illegal"
continuation of the transitional government. MONUC officials
said in addition to some UDPS supporters tearing down
campaign banners, some legislative candidates have been
physically harassed in Mbuji Mayi and Kananga during the past
two weeks. On July 1 in Kananga, UDPS officials posted a
message outside their headquarters announcing that the
electoral campaign had been canceled and anyone engaging in
political activity would "face consequences." Kananga civil
society coordinator Alex Mukanya said some of his colleagues
engaged in voter education campaigns have been harassed and
threatened by UDPS supporters. More commonly, particularly in
Mbuji Mayi, the UDPS has called for a "ville morte" nearly
every day since June 30, bringing economic activity in many
sectors of the city to a halt.


6. (C) In recent days, UDPS supporters have engaged in
slightly more violent activity. President Kabila made his
first campaign visit to Mbuji Mayi July 23 and was reportedly
not well-received in the city. As the president and his
motorcade were traveling from the airport into the city,
onlookers threw rocks at the passing cars of the president's
security detail; a similar incident took place the following
day. This response, however, was more a rejection of Kabila
himself than the electoral process. Several other
presidential candidates -- including Vice Presidents
Jean-Pierre Bemba and Azarias Ruberwa, Joseph Olenghankoy,
and Eugene Diomi -- have all campaigned in the Kasais, and
none were stoned by the local population.

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RHETORIC TAKING ITS TOLL
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7. (C) These constant refrains of opposition and criticism,
however, are beginning to take their toll on average
Kasaians. The population can clearly see the electoral
campaign is underway, even without the UDPS taking part. Many
Congolese PolOff spoke to in the Kasais said they are just
now realizing the UDPS leadership made a significant mistake
in boycotting elections, and the party's strategy has been of
no benefit to Kasaians. As members of Mbuji Mayi's civil
society said, the realization is slowly sinking in that
elections will take place, and the UDPS has squandered an
opportunity to be elected into power to help improve life in
the Kasais. Moreover, the economic impact of the UDPS's
"ville morte" strategy is beginning to have negative
consequences. MONUC officials explained that many citizens
have been unable to go to the market to buy basic necessities
because the UDPS has effectively shut down business in some
parts of the city. MONUC-Mbuji Mayi Head of Office Mamady
Kouyate said the political motivations and arguments of the
UDPS are now far less a concern for the average citizen than
fulfilling the needs of everyday life.


8. (C) Most observers in the Kasais said they believe the
UDPS's support is slowly waning in the region. Jean Beya of
the PPRD in Kananga said the population has grown tired of
the UDPS being in "permanent opposition," and that the party
itself is only accustomed to saying "no" to everything.
Kouyate of MONUC-Mbuji Mayi added that the UDPS is little
more than a "nuisance" than a menace to the elections,
despite its threats and rhetoric. A Congolese woman who was
participating in an IFES-sponsored voter education seminar in
Mbuji Mayi said it is now the UDPS that is keeping the
Congolese from establishing a democracy, not anyone else. As

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reported septel, while election campaigning has been slow to
start in the Kasais, the major political parties are
nonetheless actively contesting the two provinces. Moreover,
despite UDPS appeals for a boycott of the vote, many Kasaians
PolOff spoke to privately admitted that while they
sympathized with the UDPS position, they nonetheless wanted
to vote and planned on doing so July 30.

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SUSPICIONS REMAIN
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9. (C) Still, many in the Kasais fear what the UDPS might try
to do to upset elections or the immediate post-electoral
period. The UDPS has had a history in the region of inciting
civil unrest. Of particular concern is the UDPS practice of
paying "shegues" (street children and youths) to instigate
violence, burn cars, break shop windows, and harass the
population. Western Kasai Governor Tshiongo Tshibikubula said
he was especially concerned that UDPS officials will try to
use the shegues to intimidate voters on election day in an
effort to keep participation low.


10. (C) MONUC officials in Kananga expressed similar concerns
about the potential for UDPS-instigated violence, but added
that such possibilities are far less likely, as the party
does not enjoy the support it once did. Officials with MONUC
and civil society said the UDPS has been largely unable to
mobilize a significant number of protesters into the streets
to demonstrate against elections, and could barely manage to
assemble 1,000 people for a rally on June 30. Congolese
military officers in Kananga and Mbuji Mayi said as well they
did not consider the UDPS to be a major security concern for
the elections. General Obedi Rwibasira, commander of the 4th
Military Region in Mbuji Mayi, said the population was truly
"tired" of the delays and rhetoric of the UDPS, and thus was
not generally inclined to take to the streets to support the
party in its boycott of elections. Obedi added that more than
anything, the UDPS represents the "specter" of violence, but
does not have the means or support to cause widespread
unrest. Governor Tshibikubula noted that compared even to
last year, there is far less fear of what the UDPS can do to
create disorder.

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COMMENT: NOT THE FORCE IT ONCE WAS
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11. (C) UDPS influence in the Kasais is still considerable,
but the depth and breath of its support is noticeably
diminishing in the region. While the party still enjoys some
support in certain sectors, more and more Kasaians are
beginning the realize Tshisekedi's errors. Consequently,
while the UDPS will try to enforce an electoral boycott, the
party will not be successful in keeping all voters away from
the polls. Voter participation in the Kasais will no doubt be
lower than the rest of the country (save Kinshasa) due to
UDPS influence and propaganda, but turnout is nonetheless
expected to be slightly higher than the December
constitutional referendum (41 percent in Western Kasai and 33
percent in Eastern Kasai) -- a sign that Kasaians want to
participate in the democratic process. The UDPS's capacity to
create widespread turmoil in the Kasais has been
overestimated. There will almost certainly be security
incidents in Mbuji Mayi and Kananga on and around July 30,
but such events will be isolated affairs largely confined to
the cities themselves. But as many observers have noted, a
general fatigue with the UDPS approach is setting in, and it
remains questionable whether the party can mobilize the
thousands of people into the street it once could. More and
more, as the elections become inevitable and the party
continues its opposition, the UDPS is increasingly
marginalized as a political force nationwide and in the
Kasais. End comment.
MEECE