DRC ELECTIONS: KASAIANS HOLDING THEIR BREATH AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KINSHASA 001181

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: KASAIANS HOLDING THEIR BREATH AS
JULY 30 APPROACHES

REF: A. KINSHASA 405


B. KINSHASA 380

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: As the DRC's July 30 presidential and
legislative elections draw closer, the prevailing attitude
among Kasaians towards the electoral process is largely one
of profound mistrust. Fueled by the belief that their region
has been ignored and exploited by the central government for
years, many Kasaians believe elections will change little,
regardless of who is elected. Nonetheless, electoral
campaigning is underway in both Kasais, and the major
political parties are actively engaged in attracting
disaffected supporters of the opposition Union for Democracy
and Social Progress. Several factors will ultimately
influence voter participation in the Kasais, but many voters
appear ready to head to the polls; which party or candidate
will win, however, remains very much an open question. End
summary.


2. (U) PolOff visited Western and Eastern Kasai provinces
July 9-13 to survey the state of political campaigning and
voter attitudes in advance of the DRC's July 30 presidential
and legislative elections. PolOff met with a variety of local
actors, including various political party and civil society
representatives, Catholic Church officials, MONUC personnel
and Congolese military officers to determine how well
election and security preparations were underway. (Note:
Security concerns in the Kasais will be reported septel. End
note.) While official electoral campaigning began June 29,
such activity was just getting underway in Kananga and Mbuji
Mayi (Western and Eastern Kasai provinces, respectively),and
the amount of visible political propaganda (such as banners
and posters) was far less than in the capital of Kinshasa.

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CAMPAIGNING STARTS OFF TIMIDLY
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3. (SBU) The biggest and most visible political presence in
Kananga and Mbuji Mayi is that of incumbent President Joseph
Kabila. Billboards, posters and banners promoting Kabila
could be seen throughout both cities and were in far greater
number than most all other candidates combined. Other major
parties, however, are actively contesting the Kasais. During
the week of July 10, Vice Presidents Jean-Pierre Bemba
(Movement for the Liberation of Congo, MLC) and Azarias
Ruberwa (Rally for Congolese Democracy, RCD) made numerous
campaign stops in both Kasai provinces. On July 11, Bemba
held a rally of an estimated 4,000 people in Mbuji Mayi, and
met similarly-sized crowds in Kananga and elsewhere in the
provinces. Ruberwa even decided to kick off his nationwide
presidential campaign in Kananga July 12, a strategic
decision aimed at garnering the support of members from the
UDPS, which is officially calling for a boycott of elections.
Even less well-known presidential candidates, such as Joseph
Olenghankoy of FONUS (who held a rally in Kananga July 10),
have been campaigning in the Kasais.


4. (SBU) Despite the visits of these high-profile
presidential candidates, though, few campaign materials and
little political activity could be seen throughout the
region, particularly from candidates for the National
Assembly. In Tshikapa, the major diamond-producing center of
Western Kasai, just a handful of banners or posters could be
seen in the city, although PolOff did witness one small rally
(of about 40 people) of the Unified Lumumbist Party (PALU)
marching in the streets. In Kananga and Mbuji Mayi, more
political posters were displayed (as there are more
candidates in these cities),but most belonged to
well-financed politicians such as Eastern Kasai Governor
Dominique Kanku, a member of Bemba's MLC. Apart from these
few examples, however, nearly two weeks into official
campaigning the Kasais remained a political dead zone.


5. (C) The major political parties, however, have begun
mobilizing, albeit slowly, in the Kasais, largely in an
effort to attract those voters who may be disenchanted with
the UDPS. In fact, many political parties are trying to
present themselves as having the same objectives and message
as the long-time opposition party. Donatien Mulamba of the
RCD in Kananga said his party was out preparing for elections
and educating voters every day. Mulamba, with some pride,
said the RCD in the Kasais was the true "interlocutor" for
the UDPS and represented the same ideals as the opposition

KINSHASA 00001181 002 OF 004


party. Unlike his UDPS counterparts, however, Mulamba said
his party would respect election results, so long as the
elections were "transparent." Jean Beya, the PPRD coordinator
in Kananga, expressed confidence in his party's chances,
particularly in legislative elections, since his party's
candidates "best understood" the needs of Kasaians. Beya's
homologue in Mbuji Mayi, Prophete Kazadi, said the PPRD had
put into place an extensive structure to campaign in each
electoral district throughout Eastern Kasai. Kazadi also said
Kasaians would surely vote for Kabila because they know him
to be a "true Congolese" who fought to defend the Kasais
during the country's civil war in the late 1990s. During his
campaign appearances in the Kasais, Vice President Bemba
continually noted potential problems in the electoral
process, but promised to fight for transparency and if
elected, to reverse the years of neglect towards the two
Kasais.

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OSCAR WHO?
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6. (C) Interestingly, one candidate who has claimed to have a
wide base of support in the Kasais was seemingly unknown.
Oscar Kashala, the American-educated oncologist and now
presidential candidate, has often boasted of his rapport with
the UDPS and with Kasaians in general. However, not a single
political actor or other official PolOff met with in either
Kasai province knew much -- if anything -- about Kashala.
UDPS officials in Kananga and Mbuji Mayi claimed they had
never met Kashala nor knew he was a candidate. Monsignor
Marcel in Kananga said Kashala probably received some support
from the intellectual and business classes, but outside of
those sectors, he was not well-known at all. Even the
governor of Western Kasai, who was born and has lived in the
province most of his life, had never heard of Kashala. MONUC
officials said they had seen very little campaign activity
from Kashala's party, the Union for the Reconstruction of
Congo (UREC); PolOff, in fact, saw just one Kashala poster in
all of the Kasais.

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WHY THE SLOW START?
--------------


7. (SBU) Several factors can explain the relative lack of
political activity (or hostility to it) in the Kasais. First,
many of the parties at the provincial and local levels --
including the PPRD, MLC and RCD -- do not have the financial
means to engage in widespread campaigning. Finances are
generally controlled by party leaders in Kinshasa, and those
funds have not yet made their way to the provinces, largely
because party efforts are focused on the presidential race,
not legislative elections. In addition, many of the parties
have weak structures and leadership, resulting in poor
management of already scare resources. Provincial party
leaders therefore do not have the money to print banners, buy
hats and t-shirts or conduct any other kind of campaigning.
Thus, electioneering in areas such as the Kasais has
materialized very slowly.

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PROFOUND MISTRUST...
--------------


8. (C) The dominant attitude among many Kasaians --
particularly members of the UDPS -- tends to be one of
profound mistrust of the electoral process, leading to lower
than average voter participation rates and general antipathy
towards political activity. This sentiment is based in part
on Kasaian tendencies not to accept "outsiders," as well as a
history of having their interests overlooked. As no "true"
Kasaian is managing the government or the Electoral
Commission, the population maintains its suspicions about the
credibility of elections. In addition, the Kasais have for
years been exploited and marginalized by the central
government, with little of the wealth generated by the
diamond industry returning to the provinces. Kasaians tend to
believe government officials in Kinshasa deliberately
marginalize their region, especially noting that the
Inga-Shaba power line (a major electricity source from the
Congo River into the interior provinces) completely bypasses
both provinces.


9. (C) UDPS President Etienne Tshisekedi has used the above
factors to enforce his call to not take part in the DRC's

KINSHASA 00001181 003 OF 004


democratic process. Less than one-third of registered Kasaian
voters participated in the December 2005 constitutional
referendum. (Note: The low level of participation, however,
was limited largely to the main cities of Kananga, Mbuji
Mayi, Tshikapa and Lodja. Other locations throughout the
provinces had much higher levels of participation. End note.)
Monsignor Marcel Maduila of the Catholic Church in Kananga
said many Kasaians believe the international community has
already chosen Kabila as its candidate, and that the
President will win regardless of how the Congolese actually
vote. Marcel added that Kasaians in particular will never
accept that Kabila won legitimately because they believe he
controls the Electoral Commission and thus the voting
process. Representatives of the PPRD and RCD in Mbuji Mayi
said they, too, had fears about the credibility and
transparency of the electoral process, particularly the CEI's
ability to guarantee a free election.

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... BUT HOPES FOR HIGHER PARTICIPATION
--------------


10. (C) Despite these attitudes many Kasaians said they want
to vote and will go to the polls July 30. CEI coordinator
Kapambu said people are ready to participate in elections and
are tired of all the delays being called for by political
actors. Kapambu said he believed participation rates will be
higher for the general elections than the referendum because
the candidates running for office have a vested interest in
mobilizing voters -- an element which did not exist during
the referendum. Tshiongo Tshibikubula, the governor of
Western Kasai (and a PPRD member),said he was confident that
people want elections and realize this could be their last
opportunity to change their country. Tshibikubula added that
despite UDPS claims to the contrary, many Kasaians did
register to vote, but have been quiet about it because they
did not want to cross party leaders. Mamady Kouyate, the
MONUC Head of Office in Mbuji Mayi, agreed with
Tshibikubula's assessment, saying that Kasaians, particularly

SIPDIS
those outside the major cities, did register in larger
numbers, and have expressed a strong desire to vote in
elections. Kouyate added, though, that he worried whether
participation would be very strong due to UDPS influence or
intimidation. Kouyate said low participation rates could add
to the perception that the elections were not credible, but
he predicted that in Mbuji Mayi, participation rates would be
around 40 percent, slightly higher than the referendum.

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UNKNOWN FACTORS: INDEPENDENTS AND BOYCOTTING
--------------


11. (C) Complicating any predictions on the outcome of the
elections -- particularly at the legislative level in the
Kasais -- is the potential support to independent candidates.
MONUC officials and others in the two provinces said many
former UDPS members quietly registered as independent
candidates, but the number who actually did so is not known.
Between the two Kasais, there are 77 independent candidates
for the National Assembly among a total of 1362 overall
(running for 79 seats). Governor Tshibikubula claimed some
UDPS supporters, realizing they could not be elected by
staying with the party, switched allegiances and registered
as candidates with other parties. If true, voters will be
more likely to vote for individuals based on their supposed
UDPS backgrounds, rather than on current party affiliations.


12. (C) Another factor affecting election results will be
voter turnout. Whether the UDPS can convince the majority of
Kasaians to stay home and not vote on July 30 remains
debatable, as signs of waning UDPS influence have begun to
appear. (Note: UDPS support and influence in the Kasais in
the pre-election period will be reported septel. End note.)
The PPRD in particular has been actively working to motivate
its existing base of party members to head to the polls so as
to maximize its chances of winning, particularly if
disgruntled UDPS voters stay home. PPRD officials in both
Kananga and Mbuji Mayi outlined well-organized campaign
strategies and were the most visible campaigners in either
province. The MLC and the RCD, meanwhile, have also been
campaigning hard, but the depth of support in both provinces
appeared much shallower than that of the PPRD. If the UDPS is
successful in engineering a Kasaian boycott, though, the
effect will most likely aid the prospects of the PPRD and
Kabila, who invariably will have the most motivated
supporters and the means to get people out to the polls.

KINSHASA 00001181 004 OF 004


Higher turnout rates, by contrast, will boost support for
other parties such as the RCD and MLC (and possibly Antoine
Gizenga from PALU),at the expense of the PPRD, as UDPS
sympathizers who do vote will most likely choose anyone other
than Kabila. (Note: This dynamic explains in part why the
PPRD has not been active in dissuading the UDPS from
boycotting the vote. End note.)

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LOGISTICS AND CIVIC EDUCATION
--------------


13. (SBU) The CEI, meanwhile, is fully engaged in the last
stages of logistical preparations for the vote. CEI
coordinator Kapambu said as of early July, all election
material -- including ballot boxes, voting booths and ballots
themselves -- had been delivered to major distribution points
in both provinces. Kapambu said his biggest concern was the
final phase of deployment to the more than 3,700 voting
stations in Western Kasai alone, as the CEI did not have
enough working vehicles to transport election kits to all
parts of the province. Kapambu said he also worried about the
reliability of some poll workers, many of whom have not yet
been paid for their efforts during the December referendum.
CEI national spokesman Dieudonne Mirimo, who just finished
his own tour of the Kasais, said the CEI was making
arrangements to provide alternate transport in the region,
and had secured the services of private contractors to store
and transport material. Despite these logistical hiccups,
however, Kapambu said he was confident the CEI would be ready
to hold elections as scheduled.


14. (C) As in many other regions of the country, the Kasais
suffer from a general lack of civic education regarding the
electoral process. CEI coordinator Kapambu said the
Commission was launching a more focused education campaign in
the last weeks before the elections. But members of civil
society in both Kasais said many voters still do not have a
good understanding of such things as how to mark the ballot,
how votes will be counted, and how winners are declared. Many
actors, however, are actively engaged in educating the
population, including the Catholic Church, civil society, and
international donors. In Mbuji Mayi, for example, the
National Democratic Institute and IFES (with funding provided
by USAID) have trained several thousand people on the
electoral process through its Democracy Resource Center. IFES
has also partnered with several universities in the region to
educate professors and students on the basics of the
democratic process. MONUC officials in both provinces,
however, said due to poor management by the CEI and the
generally low literacy rates and education levels, many
Kasaians will have little understanding of the electoral
process if and when they head to the polls July 30.

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COMMENT: ATTITUDES CHANGING, BUT PEOPLE STILL WARY
-------------- --------------


15. (C) The absence of the UDPS from the July 30 ballot will
provide other political parties the opportunity to make
inroads in the region, and perhaps further marginalize the
influence of the opposition party and its followers. In
discussions with various sectors of Kasaian society, it
appears that many of those who are registered to vote want to
head to the polls. Many Kasaians, however, are still
suspicious of the entire electoral process. That distrust --
coupled with a profound misunderstanding of the process --
remains the dominant theme of Kasaian political discourse.
Overcoming that mentality and convincing Kasaians to respect
election results (especially at the presidential level) will
be a difficult task for all political actors. Nonetheless, a
definite political shift is underway in the Kasais, as
political leaders realize that voters in this region are
effectively up for grabs. Kasaians themselves, meanwhile,
appear to be holding their breath and waiting for the storm
of July 30 pass without incident. End comment.
MEECE