DRC ELECTIONS: LAST-MINUTE ANNOUNCEMENTS ADDING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001153

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: LAST-MINUTE ANNOUNCEMENTS ADDING TO
VOTERS' CONFUSION


Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (SBU) Summary: The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI)
announced July 15 that it has been able to verify some 24.4
million legitimately registered voters in the DRC, a number
slightly below the original figure of 25.7 million. The CEI
has estimated, however, that those 1.27 million "missing"
voters have fallen off voters lists because of technical
problems with registration equipment. As such, those
"omitted" voters will still be allowed to vote in the July 30
elections. The CEI, meanwhile, continues to respond to
allegations that it is trying to commit electoral fraud by
printing five million "extra" presidential ballots. While
reasonable explanations exist for these and other concerns
about the electoral process, the Electoral Commission has not
responded in an adequate or timely fashion, thereby allowing
rumors to establish themselves as presumed facts in the
political discourse. End summary.

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THE CASE OF THE "MISSING" VOTERS
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2. (U) The CEI July 15 announced the publication of the DRC's
voter lists after a months-long compilation and review of all
registered voters for cases of fraud or double registration.
The CEI reported it has been able to verify 24,440,410
legitimately registered voters throughout the country.
Previously, the CEI announced that following the end of voter
registration earlier this year, 25,712,552 Congolese had
registered as voters. (Note: It was this larger number on
which the Parliament decided to base the distribution of the
500 National Assembly seats. End note). CEI officials
explained the difference in figures (1.27 million voters,
roughly five percent of the original total) resulted from
technical problems with some of the compact discs on which
voter registration information was stored. Consequently, the
CEI has estimated that 877,673 voters (who registered at
1,029 centers) are presumed to be missing from voter lists
because some registration information was unreadable from the
CDs. In addition, the CEI reported that 394,469 voters (who
enrolled at 142 centers) are not on the voter lists because
the CDs from those centers could not be accessed.


3. (SBU) The CEI also announced it had identified 292,353
cases of potential fraud among the previous number of
registered voters. CEI officials have not provided figures as
to how many among this number are cases of double
registration or are otherwise fraudulent. (Note: The CEI has
identified cases of military personnel and foreigners having
registered to vote, both of which are prohibited under
Congolese law, but the exact number is yet unknown. End
note.) For reasons unknown, however, the CEI has not
officially reduced the total number of registered voters to
reflect the existence of these "irregular" voters. Officials
with MONUC's Electoral Division similarly could not explain
why the CEI included the 292,353 voters in its new total of
24.4 million.


4. (C) To deal with the 1.27 million voters whose names will
not appear on voter lists, the CEI has authorized the
creation of "listes des omis" (lists of the omitted) or
special voting lists on voting day. These lists, which are
now being printed, will be sent only to those voting stations
where voter registration data was missing or incomplete. In a
special process, these "missing" voters can present their
voter identification cards and cast ballots on election day.
Poll workers will have to cross-check the information on the
voter ID cards with that on the specially-generated lists to
allow such electors to vote. It is not known where the
majority of sites will be that will use the special voters
lists, but CEI officials have privately said most cases will
be in the provinces of Equateur and Bandundu, which
experienced significant delays and logistical problems during
the voter registration period. In any case, the CEI will
treat all ballots cast as equal and legitimate, and all those
with voter ID cards will be allowed to vote, regardless of
whether a voter appeared on the original voters list or
"liste des omis."

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THE MYSTERIOUS "EXTRA" BALLOTS
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5. (U) Another issue which has been the cause of considerable
misunderstanding and debate among voters and the political

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class is that of five million "extra" presidential ballots
printed by the CEI. CEI President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu
explained during the course of a June meeting between the CEI
and many of the 33 presidential candidates that the CEI had
printed 30 million ballots. Understanding that the number of
registered voters is around 25 million, some candidates and
other political parties charged the CEI with attempting to
commit fraud by printing five million extra ballots that
could be used later to favor another candidate (namely,
President Kabila). Malu Malu has explained -- often
repeatedly, without much success in achieving understanding
-- that there are not five million extra ballots, and that
the existence of supplemental ballots conforms to
international election norms. (Note: A point substantiated by
the Carter Center in a recent announcement. End note.)


6. (U) Malu Malu said the number of ballots printed was based
on the number of planned voting sites and the average number
of voters expected at each site. Throughout the DRC, there
will be a total of 49,746 voting sites -- 8,518 of which will
be in Kinshasa, with the remaining 41,228 located in the rest
of the country. In addition, each voting site in Kinshasa is
expected to accommodate 370 voters; those elsewhere in the
DRC will have 600 voters per site. Thus, with these figures
-- multiplying the number of voting sites by the number of
voters expected (taking account of the differences between
Kinshasa and the rest of the country) -- the CEI calculated
that 27.9 million ballots were required. The CEI then ordered
50 additional ballots for each of the 49,746 voting sites in
case some ballots were not delivered, were destroyed, or were
otherwise found unusable. Adding these additional ballots --
which have already been delivered to voting stations
throughout the country -- to the previous total, the CEI
ultimately printed 30.4 million ballots.

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MISTAKES WERE MADE
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7. (C) Incorrectly printed ballots have similarly raised
unfounded criticisms and questions among Congolese political
actors. Due to a variety of errors -- including the placing
of certain legislative candidates on the wrong party lists --
the CEI has had to reprint nearly 782,000 legislative ballots
in the provinces of Orientale, Bandundu, Western Kasai, and
North Kivu. In addition, ballots in three of Kinshasa's four
electoral districts had to be reprinted because they
contained some material errors. While the CEI has not
provided figures for the number of Kinshasa ballots needing
to be reprinted, it is believed the number comes to around
2.2 million. Many critics have charged the CEI will keep
these erroneous ballots in reserve to alter election results.
The CEI, however, has announced that some ballots will be
publicly destroyed in an effort to demonstrate transparency.
The first such public destruction is planned to take place in
Beni (North Kivu) on July 18.

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COMMENT: REASONABLE EXPLANATIONS, BUT ARE THEY TOO LATE?
-------------- --------------


8. (C) While reasonable explanations exist for issues such as
"extra" ballots and the need for special voting lists, the
CEI has not communicated them in a clear, efficient or timely
manner. Often, official CEI declarations attempting to
clarify issues or popular concerns arrive well after the
public's imagination has seized a particular question and
rumors have been accepted as facts. Moreover, the CEI has
proven itself largely ineffective in providing the public --
which lacks reliable, unbiased news sources -- simple answers
concerning the political process; the CEI's answers more
often than not make matters more complicated.


9. (C) Nonetheless, the CEI has provided answers for the
majority of issues facing the electoral process. With regard
to the problem of "missing" voters, the CEI has legitimately
explained that nearly 900,000 such voters are the result of
unforeseen technical errors, and enough data exists to
justify the decision to allow them to vote. More problematic
is the decision to grant the remaining 400,000 "missing"
electors the right to vote, since there is no way to verify
whether they are legitimately enrolled. Permitting these
cases to vote, however, will not greatly affect election
results, as they represent less than two percent of the
overall electorate.


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10. (C) When the CEI does respond to legitimate questions
about the electoral process, the message is too late,
ignored, or not believed at all. For example, had the CEI in
May clearly explained the reason why "extra" ballots had to
be ordered, weeks of political distraction and rumors could
have been avoided. Instead, the issue now dominates political
debate, crowding out legitimate issues. The DRC's electoral
process is immensely complicated, and the logistical aspects
are equally daunting for the CEI. If the country's elections
and the electoral process are going to be deemed credible by
the Congolese themselves, however, the CEI needs to take a
much more proactive role in disseminating information early
and often. Absent such efforts, though, there will exist an
information void which electoral spoilers will race to fill.
In any case, the CEI's leadership has demonstrated it is
aware of the Commission's shortcomings, and is taking to
heart lessons learned from the first round of elections in
advance of the second round and for the elections in another
five years. End comment.
MEECE