FORMER UDPS OFFICIAL GEARING UP FOR LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001102

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: FORMER UDPS OFFICIAL GEARING UP FOR LEGISLATIVE
CAMPAIGN

REF: KINSHASA 505

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: Former UDPS member Eve Bazaiba -- the only
publicly-declared member of the opposition party running in
the DRC's elections -- has officially begun her campaign for
a seat in the National Assembly, despite threats being made
against her. Bazaiba, running as an independent, said she
remains optimistic about her chances of winning, and promised
she would continue to represent the interests of the UDPS if
elected. Bazaiba also said she did not believe the UDPS would
pose any significant threat to the electoral process, despite
the party's boycott of elections. End summary.


2. (C) Eve Bazaiba, former member of the UDPS Founders Group
and director of the party's recruitment and social programs,
has begun her election campaign for a seat representing
Kinshasa in the National Assembly. Bazaiba, running as an
independent, is the only known (publicly declared) member
from the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress
(UDPS) running in the July 30 elections. After announcing her
decision to run in March, Bazaiba was summarily expelled from
the party by its president, Etienne Tshisekedi, who denounced
her as a "traitor" for opposing his boycott of the DRC's
elections (reftel).


3. (C) PolOff met with Bazaiba July 3 to discuss her upcoming
campaign and her perceptions on the DRC's electoral process.
Bazaiba said she was "cautiously" beginning her official
campaign that week by putting up posters and banners in her
electoral district. Bazaiba explained that she was somewhat
hesitant to begin personal campaigning, as she and some of
her campaign staff have been intimidated and harassed by
people she refused to identify, but later admitted were known
to be members of the UDPS. Bazaiba said soon after she posted
her campaign materials at the beginning of the electoral
campaign June 29, they were immediately torn down. Stating
she was undaunted by this experience, Bazaiba said she was
going to conduct an informal "door-to-door" poll among
residents in her district to gauge public opinion about her
candidacy. Based on what she discovers, Bazaiba said she
would determine whether or not to make any public
appearances. At a minimum, Bazaiba said she plans on holding
two public forums a week from July 10 through the July 30
elections as a way of engaging voters and promoting her
candidacy.


4. (C) Bazaiba said she was determined to follow all the
rules of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and High
Media Authority (HAM) with regard to the conduct of her
campaign. She said she wanted hers to be a contest based on
ideas, not personalities or ethnicity. Bazaiba admitted,
however, that running as an independent candidate meant she
had limited financial resources, and thus she could not
conduct the size or kind of campaign she wanted. She noted
particularly (and with some envy) the vast number of
billboards and other campaign banners plastered throughout
the center of Kinshasa and lamented her inability to generate
such exposure. Bazaiba later wondered aloud how certain
presidential candidates (namely President Joseph Kabila and
Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba) could get away with
erecting so many campaign posters in the city, when the CEI
has regulations limiting how much campaign propaganda can be
posted in a certain area. Indirectly, Bazaiba charged the CEI
as unfairly favoring candidates with money and thus those
already in power.


5. (C) If elected, Bazaiba said she would represent the ideas
and supporters of the UDPS, since she still believes in the
principles of the party. As for Tshisekedi, however, Bazaiba
said she felt his time on the DRC political stage was over,
and there was nothing anyone could do to convince him to
participate in elections. Bazaiba said it was time for the
UDPS to accept new leadership and engage itself in the
electoral process, although she admitted that would not
likely take place until the next set of elections in five
years. Bazaiba said that if elected, she hopes she will have
a major role to play in leading the UDPS.


6. (C) As for the UDPS itself, Bazaiba said she does not
believe the party has the capability to organize any kind of
effective demonstrations which could derail the electoral
process. Bazaiba said most party supporters are "too tired"
to take to the streets and now realize that marches and
demonstrations do not accomplish any of the party's

KINSHASA 00001102 002 OF 002


objectives (namely, restarting voter registration and
delaying elections). When asked if she thought the UDPS would
try to incite violence or prevent elections from taking place
July 30 as scheduled, Bazaiba said there would certainly be
some people who will take to the streets, but overall, the
UDPS can no longer mobilize crowds as it did in the past.


7. (C) Regarding the latest round of political
"concertations" among Congolese presidential candidates and
other political actors, Bazaiba said she did not understand
the goal of such meetings and why they were necessary.
Diverging again from the UDPS's position, Bazaiba said
negotiations and dialogue were not necessary, and those who
were calling for such things were simply trying to delay
elections for their own advantage. Bazaiba said she also
thought that the meetings themselves were close to being a
"coup d'etat," as they were called on behalf of the "Espace
Presidentiel," but did not include Kabila, who is the only
person legally authorized to convene a meeting of the
"Espace." In the end, Bazaiba said she hoped the
"concertations" would at least calm tensions and appease
those who were threatening the electoral process.


8. (C) Bazaiba conveyed a definite optimism about her
campaign. She claimed that representatives of many of the
major political parties -- including Kabila's PPRD, Bemba's
MLC, Pierre Pay Pay's CODECO, and Vice President Azarias
Ruberwa's RCD -- have all sought her endorsement or offered
their support to her campaign if she allied herself with
them. Bazaiba said she has rejected all such entreaties, as
she wishes to remain independent and "remain loyal" to the
UDPS when in the National Assembly. Bazaiba said she is going
to focus her efforts on civic education in the days leading
up to the election, as many in Kinshasa are not prepared and
have little understanding of the voting process itself.
Despite the lack of voter education, Bazaiba said she
expected a much higher voter turnout rate in Kinshasa than
that during the December constitutional referendum -- perhaps
as high as 65 percent.


9. (C) Comment: It is not certain what Bazaiba's chances are
of winning, as she faces nearly 800 opponents running for 13
seats in her Kinshasa electoral district. But it is evident
that some members of the UDPS are trying to discourage her
from campaigning and gaining support by destroying her
campaign material. Bazaiba, however, is likely not the only
target of such intimidation, as many reports of political
signs and posters being torn down circulate through Kinshasa.
Nonetheless, Bazaiba's participation in the electoral process
serves as a reminder of the deep divisions within the UDPS
over Tshisekedi's decision to boycott elections -- a schism
Tshisekedi would rather not be made public. End comment.

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