ON CAMPAIGN EVE: INCONCLUSIVE ROUND 2 MEETING OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ON CAMPAIGN EVE: INCONCLUSIVE ROUND 2 MEETING OF
TRANSITION LEADERS

REF: KINSHASA 976

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Roger Meece. Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Key officials of the DRC Transition,
including Vice Presidents, members of the International
Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT),the Independent
Election Commission (CEI) President, and others gathered the
afternoon of June 28 to continue last June 21's session
(reftel) to discuss the way forward. In a marathon meeting
lasting from 3:00 - 11:00 p.m., nothing was decided. Vice
President Ruberwa doggedly pushed for a general political
"consultation" meeting starting Thursday, June 29, involving
Sun City signatories and others to discuss "June 30," a
formula which would de facto call into question the existing
electoral plan and calendar. Ruberwa was essentially
supported by VPs Bemba and Z'Ahidi, with others opposed.
Alternate suggestions, for example limiting the agenda to
election security and transparency, or obliging participants
to commit to the July 30 election date, were rejected by
Ruberwa, who insisted on a broad agenda and participant list.
The meeting broke up with no agreement, and contrary to
normal practice, no statement to the press. In the meantime,
the CEI and CIAT are proceeding with a previously-agreed-upon
plan to hold a meeting of the 33 Presidential candidates
Thursday afternoon to discuss campaign and election issues, a
meeting now potentially in jeopardy. It is unclear how
things will evolve, but Ruberwa's continued intransigence
could create new risks and dangers over coming days. End
summary.

Gathering Again the Institutions
--------------


2. (C) An "Inter-institutional Meeting" was convened
Wednesday afternoon, June 28, at the Palais de la Nation, to
follow last's week similar session (reftel) to discuss how to
proceed in coming weeks. President Kabila is traveling in
the east, and Vice President Yerodia presided in his stead.
All Vice Presidents, the Presidents of the National Asssembly
and Senate, Interior Minister Mbemba, four of the five heads
of the "citien" commissions (dealing with elections, media,
uman rights, and "truth and reconciliation") were ll
present, along with all Ambassadors or Charge composing the
International Committee to Accompany the Transition (CIAT).
The agenda consisted oftwo items: first, follow-on questions
to Indepenent Election Commission (CEI) President Malu Malu
arising from his briefing provided last week; and second,
proposals for a "consultation" session or process to examine
aspects of election planningand other issues.


3. (C) Getting underway at 3:0 p.m., the meeting began with
Vice Presidents Rberwa and Z'Ahidi posing numerous questions
to Mlu Malu regarding specifics of election preparation.
Several of these covered ground reasonably wel-known,
prompting the French Ambassador to ask i the Vice Presidents
were not getting any informtion from their own
representatives in the CEI. There was spirited discussion,
however, of existig arrangements for "floating" party
observers atpolling stations, and the resulting need for a
semingly excess number of surplus ballots needed topermit
such observers to vote at any place in th country where they
might choose to be. All present agreed that the issue, and
some unresolved issues centered on media access during the
campaign and candidate and voter registration, merited
further discussion and rapid resolution.

Moving to Deep Waters
--------------


4. (C) The discussion morphed into the second agenda item,
and the heart of the discussion, regarding the desirability,
form, and terms of reference for a "consultation" centered on
the election process. Ruberwa laid out a proposal calling
for a relatively large meeting including all Sun City Accord
signatories, other civil society members, presidential
candidates, and representatives of all Transition
institutions to convene the next day, Thursday, June 29. The
proposed agenda would include candidate and voter security,
media access, the new code of good conduct, and election
transparency (note: to include the excess ballot and other
issues). He added, however, that the situation (French
"sort") of those not involved in the process must also be
considered (note: essentially a reference to the opposition
UDPS, who have consistently opposed the election process.

KINSHASA 00001032 002 OF 003


End note). Ruberwa suggested that the meeting could be
concluded the same afternoon, or if necessary extend into the
June 30 holiday, but last no longer than a day and a half.
It could be chaired by President Kabila, or co-chaired by the
Vice Presidents. Ruberwa also noted that the idea of
involving Republic of Congo President Sassou, Gabonese
President Bongo, or others had been brought up in recent
discussions he had in Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon.


5. (C) Vice President Z'Ahidi essentially endorsed the
Ruberwa proposal, but a variety of other speakers expressed
reserves or opposition. Interior Minister Mbemba and Senate
President Marini questioned whether such a session could be
concluded quickly. A number of other Congolese and some CIAT
members expressed concerns over the wisdom of opening the
agenda to include those basically opposed to the election
process. The Angolan Ambassador (who is Dean of the
Diplomatic Corps) asked what methodology was to be utilized
to get to specific results. The discussion turned into an
extended discussion of what the proposed consultation should
attempt to cover.

Miasma
--------------


6. (C) Under Yerodia's ineffectual chairmanship, the
discussion wandered and became increasingly contentious.
Ruberwa focused on the necessity of discussing June 30, the
original final Transition deadline date under the Sun City
Accords, and the necessity of convening parties to discuss
how to proceed beyond that date. He implicitly accepted the
already-agreed consensus that the July 30 first-round
election date should be sacrosanct. He failed to reconcile
that,however, with an open discussion of the validity of
continuing the Transition government beyond June 30 which
would in and of itself call into question the existing
election process and calendar. His argument basically came
down to asserting that the majority in the room would be part
of the Transition institutions and therefore would clearly
opt to move forward to July 30. The Truth and Reconciliation
Committee President stated that there seemed to be two
groups, one seeking how to move most effectively toward July
30 elections, and one seeking to "revalidate" the election
process (i.e. the UDPS supporters). Ruberwa would not accept
the distinction, asserting that all groups must be involved
in the consultation discussion.


7. (C) Several individuals attempted to identify some common
ground, or suggest at least some concrete way forward. CEI
President Malu Malu observed that there seemed to be two
groups of concerns, one set focused on election procedures
and candidates, and the other dealing with broader topics.
Why not at least convene a meeting of candidates to deal with
the former, even if immediate agreement could not be reached
regarding the second group of issues? Yerodia failed to
push such proposals to conclusion, and they tended to get
lost in the muddle of varied interventions. The British
Ambassador suggested that participants in any consultation
meeting be preconditioned on their commitment to the July 30
first-round election date, as that had already been agreed
upon by the group as sacrosanct. Ruberwa explicitly rejected
the idea, asserting such a general consultation had to be
left open to those holding other views, apparently including
those opposed to the entire process. Even as the hour was
approaching 10:00 p.m., Ruberwa continued to insist that a
general consultation meeting could and must be convened on
Thursday, June 29, covering a broad agenda. Both Z'Ahidi and
Bemba eventually endorsed the idea; most everyone else in the
room was opposed.

Inconclusive Conclusion
--------------


8. (C) Eventually it became increasingly clear that, for
Ruberwa, the issue of the June 30 anniversary date and the
situation of those outside the process (i.e., the UDPS) were
the central issues of the proposal. As the hours wore or,
CEI President Malu Malu observed that participants were
increasingly simply restating their positions, with no
progress toward a common position apparent. He suggested
that if President Kabila and the four Vice Presidents could
agree on a formula, they should organize a consultation
meeting under their authority as the "Espace Presidentiel,"
inviting representatives of the other institutions as desired
(comment: a proposal that would shift the onus for failure or

KINSHASA 00001032 003 OF 003


stalemate of such a meeting squarely on the shoulders of the
President and four Vice Presidents, instead of more widely
shared by all those in the room. End comment). Not
surprisingly, Ruberwa, Bemba, and Z'Ahidi did not pick up on
the idea. At around 11:00 p.m., Z'Ahidi said the meeting
should agree that consultations are urgently needed, and
charge the Espace Presidentiel with working out the
"modalities" for the session. Without the opportunity for
further debate or discussion, Yerodia at that point said that
he and others were tired and hungry and closed the meeting.
As weary participants filed from the room, neither CIAT
members nor others were sure of what, if anything, had been
concluded.


9. (C) Contrary to normal practice, neither SRSG Swing, nor
other participants spoke to the press waiting at the front of
the building. The government's Secretary General told the
press simply that a statement would be released the next day.

Candidate Meeting Goes Forward
--------------


10. (C) Concurrent with the inter-institutional session and
per a previous agreement by the CEI and CIAT, invitations
were issued June 28 to all 33 Presidential candidates for a
June 29 meeting. The purpose of this session is to review
campaign rules and guidelines, and provide the candidates an
opportunity to express concerns regarding campaign and
elections procedures. That meeting is scheduled for Thursday
afternoon at 4:00 p.m. It is not clear whether the
"consultation" discussion now places the candidate meeting in
jeopardy.

Comment: Election Message Further Diluted
--------------


11. (C) Polls and anecdotal evidence suggest that a majority
of Congolese are still not convinced that elections will be
held on July 30. Unfortunately, the inconclusive discussions
regarding a proposed "consultation" adds to the ambiguity of
the current environment, and will tend to reinforce those
doubts. It is unclear how, or even if, Ruberwa really would
expect a one-or two-day meeting to resolve fundamental
questions regarding the integrity of the election process,
much less the UDPS' consistent refusal to take part. Indeed,
Ruberwa has made a public statement that he could accept a
further delay to the election calendar, suggesting that his
real agenda is other than that put forward in the
inter-institutional meeting. It is no coincidence that the
three Vice Presidents supporting the broad consultation
proposal. Ruberwa, Bemba, and Z'Ahidi find themselves in
weak electoral positions. While we view Bemba as seeking to
preserve all options, privately encouraging UDPS claims even
while he continues to campaign, Ruberwa has few election
options available, and Z'Ahidi has virtually no broad
organization or popular base at all, in both cases rendering
their future actions somewhat unpredictable. Given the murk
emanating from the June 28 meeting, it is not
clear what if anything will happen June 29. It is all but
impossible that Kabila would agree to a broad consultation
meeting as outlined by Ruberwa, a session that would strongly
imply opening the basic tenets of the election process to new
negotiations. Our best guess is by inertia, the candidate
meeting will take place Thursday, albeit with an uncertain
number of candidates showing up, and the consultation meeting
will not.


12. (C) The other immediate pending question is what the UDPS
will be able to do to mobilize crowds on the streets on
Friday, June 30 as party leader Tshisekedi would clearly like
to do. At this point, it appears unlikely that the party,
even if given implicit or explicit support by others, will be
able to generate mass numbers. All information to Embassy
forces suggests that Congolese security forces appear
confident about their ability to manage what is expected to
be relatively modest protest numbers June 30. There is,
however, clearly a great deal left to write in the chapter on
DRC elections before we get to July 30. End comment.
MEECE