Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINGSTON402
2006-02-27 20:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:  

PORTIA SIMPSON MILLER WINS PNP RACE TO SUCCEED

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR SOCI JM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0402/01 0582057
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 272057Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2330
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM J7 MIAMI FL
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM J6 MIAMI FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000402 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA A/S SHANNON AND WHA/CAR (BENT)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/27/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI JM
SUBJECT: PORTIA SIMPSON MILLER WINS PNP RACE TO SUCCEED
PRIME MINISTER PATTERSON

REF: A. KINGSTON 0230


B. KINGSTON 2642

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas C. Tighe. Reasons 1.4(b) and (
d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000402

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA A/S SHANNON AND WHA/CAR (BENT)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/27/16
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI JM
SUBJECT: PORTIA SIMPSON MILLER WINS PNP RACE TO SUCCEED
PRIME MINISTER PATTERSON

REF: A. KINGSTON 0230


B. KINGSTON 2642

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas C. Tighe. Reasons 1.4(b) and (
d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) On February 25 Peoples National Party (PNP) delegates
elected Portia Simpson Miller to succeed P.J. Patterson as
party president and Prime Minister (the latter subject to the
expected confirmation by the PNP parliamentary majority,
followed by ratification by the Governor General).
Patterson, who is to step down by April 1, announced the
results to raucous PNP crowd on the evening of February 25.
Simpson Miller outpolled National Security Minister Peter
Phillips with 1,775 votes to his 1,538, and both easily
outdistanced Finance Minister Omar Davies (283),and former
Water and Housing Minister Karl Blythe (204). The losing
candidates publicly accepted the results, but it remains to
be seen which, if any, will be offered seats in her Cabinet.
Post has long enjoyed good relations with Simpson Miller, who
has never held a front-line ministry in her long political
career. We do have some concerns about some well-placed
officials in her campaign, however, and will report further
on these issues septel. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
Portia Simpson Miller: Presumptive Next Prime Minister
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Portia Simpson Miller won the February 25 vote among
nearly 4000 voting delegates of the governing Peoples
National Party (PNP),becoming only the fourth president of
the PNP in its 68-year history, and the first female to head
the party. More importantly, Simpson Miller, currently the
Minister of Local Government, Community and Sport, now
becomes the presumptive next prime minister, subject to
confirmation by the PNP majority in Parliament and by the
Governor General, when Prime Minister P.J. Patterson steps
down as expected by April 1. As expected, it turned out to
be a contest between Simpson Miller and Phillips. Both camps

exuded confidence heading into Saturday, but Simpson Miller,
her backers, a highly respected veteran Jamaican pollster,
and numerous talk-show pundits and columnists had all
predicted that she would prevail, absent skulduggery. For
his part, Phillips appeared to be somewhat shell-shocked when
he conceded the election.


3. (U) Patterson announced the results in the early evening,
and Simpson Miller's three rivals - National Security
Minister Peter Phillips, Finance Minister Omar Davies, and
former Housing and Water Minister Karl Blythe - all publicly
accepted the results. Of the 3890 delegates on the list,
3808 cast ballots (of which, 8 were reported "spoiled", or
invalid). Simpson Miller tallied 1,775 votes (46.7 percent),
followed by Phillips with 1,538 (40.5 percent),Davies with
283 votes (7.4 percent),and Blythe with 204 votes (5.4
percent). The day's voting, which took place at Phillips'
alma mater, Kingston College, went smoothly, although there
were reports of a few delegates complaining that they were
wrongly blocked from voting. Minor turmoil erupted when a
local radio station announced during the day that Blythe had
agreed to throw his support to Simpson Miller; an agitated
Blythe strongly denied the reports.


4. (U) Danville Walker, the respected head of the
non-partisan Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ),which oversaw
the PNP election, pronounced that the election had been fair,
with only a few minor glitches. Opposition Leader Bruce
Golding publicly offered his "heartiest congratulations,"
adding that he looked forward to engaging Simpson Miller on
policy matters. Charge telephoned Simpson Miller on February
27 to congratulate her on her victory and to state that we
look forward to working with her.


5. (U) The popular and populist Simpson Miller's decision to
skip the only planned debate between the candidates (Ref A)
did not hurt her in the end. Though her campaign vigorously
denied that she was dodging her opponents out of fear of
being shown up on television/radio, many observers still
remember her less-than-stellar debate performance against
P.J. Patterson when she challenged him unsuccessfully for the
top job in 1992. In a country of 2.6 million, Saturday's
voting pool was a small one, although Simpson Miller is

almost universally acknowledged to be the most popular
politician of either party in Jamaica. The sole contestant
in the race from humble origins (and the only one lacking an
advanced degree in a country where many rate titles above
competence),she enjoys a genuine rapport with many Jamaicans
from the poorer strata.


6. (U) The just-concluded campaign highlighted unfortunate
aspects of Jamaica's class and color biases - one prominent
local columnist who has long and vigorously backed Simpson
Miller recently wrote that one prominent PNP member had
described Simpson Miller as only being fit to be his maid.
Prickly Foreign Minister K.D. Knight, a respected lawyer who
served as Phillips' campaign manager and who has repeatedly
questioned Simpson Miller's intellect and ability, was
rebuked by Patterson, who was anxious that the contest not
lead to irreparable damage to the party before the next
general election. In airing his views, Knight was obviously
attempting to discredit Simpson Miller's candidacy. Although
he had voiced the types of criticisms of Simpson Miller
frequently expressed privately by many middle- and
upper-class Jamaicans, however, he may unwittingly have
damaged Phillips' efforts to attract support among the
island's poorer majority who resented his comments.

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (C) Simpson Miller has a long history in the PNP, and has
been a Member of Parliament since 1976. She has always made
herself available to current and former U.S. ambassadors and
emboffs, towards whom she has been unfailingly courteous.
That said, while Simpson Miller has held a number of
ministerial portfolios since she entered Parliament, she has
never run a "front-line ministry" such as Foreign Affairs and
Foreign Trade, Finance, or National Security, and she has
avoided expressing specific views on many policy issues of
interest to the USG. Knight and other critics contend that
she lacks the sophistication to handle such material. Only
time will tell, and much will depend on whom Simpson Miller
appoints to her Cabinet and to senior advisorory positions.
As noted reftel, however, of more immediate concern are some
of the individuals behind Simpson Miller's candidacy with
known or suspected criminal backgrounds and/or associations.
Septel will address those issues in greater detail.
TIGHE