JAMAICA: OPPOSITION PARTY'S ORIENTATION ON KEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 002150

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RANDALL BUDDEN, BRIAN NICHOLS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: PREL ECON EFIN EINV PGOV PINR PTER SOCI CPAS
KCOR, JM, XL, XK
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: OPPOSITION PARTY'S ORIENTATION ON KEY
ISSUES; EARLY NATIONAL ELECTIONS?

REF: KINGSTON 2020

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary and Conclusion
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1.(C) Across a broad spectrum of issues - from Venezuela
and Cuba to trade liberalization, market-driven development,
anti-corruption efforts, and Iraq - the orientation of the
Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) remains more consonant
with U.S. policies than that of the ruling People's National
Party (PNP). The JLP's popular appeal may soon be put to the
test: its Leader Bruce Golding says he expects Prime Minister
Portia Simpson Miller to call national elections before
Christmas.
End Summary and Conclusion.

Venezuela and CARICOM
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2.(C) Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) and Poloff met
privately on the morning of Oct. 30 with Leader of the
Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Bruce Golding, Party
Chairman Karl Samuda, and Leader of Opposition Business
Senator Anthony Johnson. Golding began by inquiring about
the ongoing contest between Venezuela and Guatemala for a
seat on the UNSC, and asked whether a compromise candidate
might emerge to break the deadlock. DCM observed that, while
the U.S. was not overtly attempting to engineer any
particular outcome, it was no secret that Washington opposed
Venezuela's gaining a seat. Golding then stated flatly that
he had disagreed with the position taken by the Government of
Jamaica (GoJ) from the beginning; instead of backing
Venezuela, CARICOM should have looked for a compromise
candidate. He would prefer that CARICOM "distance ourselves"
from the anti-U.S. position of Chavez. While Jamaica and
Venezuela historically had enjoyed close relations, Chavez
was a different matter; he was "not convinced" that CARICOM's
close relations with Chavez would not have a "negative
impact" on relations with the U.S. DCM observed that, in
light of the serious issues with which the UNSC would be
dealing--from nuclear proliferation to international
terrorism and Darfur--CARICOM's position was a
disappointment. If Venezuela were to gain a seat on the
UNSC, while it would not have veto power, it nevertheless
could disrupt business and prevent formation of consensus in
the deliberations of important committees.

Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI)
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3.(SBU) Golding then pointed out that, in some quarters, the
USG's recent requirement that U.S. citizens visiting the
Caribbean hold valid passports had been interpreted as a
result of the region's "dalliance with Chavez." DCM assured
him that the eleventh-hour exemption granted by Congress to
facilitate travel across U.S. land borders and on cruise
ships had had nothing to do with Venezuela. In response to
Golding's and Samuda's assertions that the U.S. passport
requirement would cause serious damage to Caribbean tourism,
DCM noted that:

-- the most recent GoJ study had found that approx. 90
percent of current U.S. visitors to Jamaica held valid
passports (post will provide a copy to Golding and Samuda);

-- overall U.S. passport issuances had accelerated
significantly in recent years, and passports were valid for a
full ten years;

-- by requiring travelers to have passports, the U.S. was
merely bringing itself into line with accepted international
practice;

-- post-9/11, aviation security was on the cutting edge of
the global counter-terrorism effort, and any reprieve from
the passport requirement for international air travelers
would be only temporary--the requirement definitely would
take effect.

Golding then derided the GoJ's efforts to prepare for the new

passport requirement as "dilatory": there had been no program
to ready the tourism industry.

Counter-terrorism, APIS, and Security
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4.(SBU) Samuda then asked how the U.S. viewed the threat of
terrorism in the Caribbean. DCM confirmed that Washington
was very much aware of the threat, and noted that Secretary
Chertoff recently had signed the Advance Passenger
Information System (APIS) Agreement with CARICOM countries in
Port-of-Spain. The U.S. and Jamaica would continue their
traditional close cooperation in law enforcement, security,
and counter-narcotics.

International Trade
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5.(U) Turning to international trade, Samuda expressed deep
pessimism over the Doha Round, and claimed that U.S. and EU
agricultural subsidies were "holding us back." DCM noted
that the respective positions of the U.S. and EU differed
substantially: Washington's most recent proposals for mutual
reductions of agricultural subsidies had been quite
reasonable, but unfortunately the EU had been unwilling to
accept them. Reductions must be equitable to overcome
resistance from domestic agricultural lobbies. In response
to Samuda's inquiry regarding the status of FTAA, DCM
acknowledged that, for the moment, progress was "on hold";
nevertheless, the U.S. continued to pursue liberalization at
the global, regional, and bilateral levels.

Millennium Challenge Account (MCA)
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6.(U) Golding and Samuda said that Jamaica and the
Caribbean had "suffered" because of Washington,s "shift of
emphasis" toward other regions since the 1980s. DCM replied
that the shift had not been away from the Caribbean, but
rather toward assistance in which recipient countries took
more direct responsibility for setting and achieving concrete
socio-economic results. Under the Millennium Challenge
Account (MCA) program, recipient countries had to meet
specific criteria. Jamaica currently was under consideration
as an MCA threshold country; more progress was needed in
anti-corruption, law enforcement, and immunization efforts.
The Embassy would continue to work closely with Jamaica in
these areas; DCM offered to provide more information
concerning MCC.

Remittances, U.S. Immigration, and Iraq
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7.(U) Johnson then observed that, in recent years,
remittances from North America and Europe had become a major
factor in Jamaica,s economy, but that they were being used
primarily to pay for consumption of imported goods. The
country enjoyed unprecedented reserves of foreign exchange,
but they were not being used productively; a future JLP
Government would explore ways to use remittances to enhance
productivity. He asked for information on projects or
programs in other regional countries in this regard; DCM said
we would pass this request on to Washington. Samuda then
inquired concerning plans for construction of a wall along
the U.S.-Mexican border. DCM noted that at several points
along the border barriers already were in place;
consideration of an additional barrier was simply part of a
larger ongoing national debate over immigration reform.
Golding then asked whether Iraq had become "an albatross" for
the U.S. and U.K.: how much legitimacy did the current Iraqi
Government enjoy? DCM replied: "more than any previous Iraqi
Government, since it had been freely elected by a 60%
margin;" the situation in Iraq was extremely difficult, but
not hopeless. (Comment: Golding and Samuda left the
distinct impression of genuine sympathy with coalition forces
in Iraq; theirs were voices of concern, rather than
criticism. End Comment.)

Early National Elections?
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8.(SBU) Golding concluded by observing that Prime Minister
Portia Simpson Miller's intentions with respect to the timing
of national elections (which must be held before October,
2007) were difficult to read: "on again, off again, now
apparently on again." ((Note: at a JLP rally the evening
before, he had enjoined the Party faithful: "Do not allow
yourselves to be deceived or deluded into believing that,
because of Trafigura (Reftel) the elections will be put off
until sometime next year....I confidently expect that when I
deliver my Christmas message this year I will be doing so
from Jamaica House as Prime Minister of Jamaica." End
Note.)) Golding did not elaborate as to why he now believed
that elections were imminent.
Johnson