JAMAICA: WINDOW TO CALL ELECTIONS CLOSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001662

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE WHA FOR (BUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV JM
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: WINDOW TO CALL ELECTIONS CLOSING

REF: A. KINGSTON 1482


B. KINGSTON 1546

C. KINGSTON 1579

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson for reasons 1.5 (b) a
nd (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller's
(PSM) window to call general elections is quickly closing.
Under an informal agreement with CARICOM countries not to
hold elections within six months of Cricket World Cup (CWC),
PSM must hold elections before October 11 or wait until after
CWC in 2007. There must be at least three weeks between the
date that elections are called and the date that elections
are held. Consequently, PSM must call elections by
mid-September to beat the October 11 deadline. Some
speculate that PSM will use the Peoples National Party (PNP)
Annual Conference, scheduled for September 21-24, to launch
her campaign. However, a recent poll commissioned by the
Gleaner Newspaper shows PSM's approval rating is down 14%
since March, thus making it somewhat less likely she will
call elections before CWC. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller's (PSM) window
to call general elections is quickly closing. Due to an
informal agreement with CARICOM countries not to hold
elections within six months of Cricket World Cup (CWC),PSM
needs to call elections within the next few weeks or wait
until after CWC in 2007. Elections before CWC seem less and
less likely with each passing day; however, some speculate
that PSM will use the Peoples National Party Annual
Conference, scheduled for September 21-24, to launch her
campaign.


3. (SBU) A recent poll commissioned by the Gleaner Newspaper
shows PSM's approval rating is down 14% since March, making
it somewhat less likely she will call elections before CWC.


4. (U) According to the Gleaner opinion poll, 38% of persons
asked would vote for the PSM led PNP, but only 26% would vote
for the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) headed by Bruce Golding.
While the PNP maintains a 12 point lead over the JLP, PNP
support is down from 52% in March to 38% in July.


5. (SBU) Most observers agree that PNP popularity is down for
a number of reasons: (1) the PNP seems divided, particularly
in light of the rift that has formed between PSM and Peter
Phillips, Minister of National Security, who was her number
one opponent for the position of leader of the PNP; (2) the
cement scandal (ref c); (3) corruption scandals involving the
PNP, particularly the Whitehouse scandal (ref c); and (4) a
feeling by some that PSM has been ineffective as Prime
Minister.


6. (SBU) It has been reported by the local press that in
order to reunify her party and make amends with Phillips, PSM
may offer him the position of Deputy Prime Minister at the
PNP Annual Conference. Interestingly, a Prime Minister may
designate a permanent Deputy Prime Minister but is not
required to do so. For example, former Prime Minister P.J.
Patterson did not designate a permanent Deputy Prime
Minister, rather he had a designate each time he traveled out
of the country.


7. (C) COMMENT: Despite the fact that PSM remains ahead of
Golding in the polls, her lead is shrinking and she may
decide to postpone elections until after CWC when Jamaicans
will (if things go well) be proud and exuberant after hosting
the event. However, PSM still has a few weeks before the
October 11 cut off and, since the CARICOM agreement is an
informal one, PSM may be inclined to call elections at the
PNP annual conference and let elections slip a little past
the deadline. END COMMENT.
JOHNSON