Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KINGSTON1579
2006-08-14 11:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:
LIKELY ISSUES IF ELECTIONS CALLED
how-toVZCZCXYZ0001 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHKG #1579 2261134 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 141134Z AUG 06 FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3364 INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001579
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON JM
SUBJECT: LIKELY ISSUES IF ELECTIONS CALLED
REF: A. KINGSTON 1482
B. KINGSTON 1546
C. KINGSTON 1298
D. KINGSTON 1286
E. KINGSTON 418
Classified By: Ambassador Brenda Johnson for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001579
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON JM
SUBJECT: LIKELY ISSUES IF ELECTIONS CALLED
REF: A. KINGSTON 1482
B. KINGSTON 1546
C. KINGSTON 1298
D. KINGSTON 1286
E. KINGSTON 418
Classified By: Ambassador Brenda Johnson for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister, Portia Simpson Miller
(PSM),leader of the Peoples National Party (PNP),remains
silent on the timing of the next general election. If
elections are not called soon, PSM will have to wait until
after Cricket World Cup (CWC) (scheduled to begin in March
2007),due to an informal agreement among CARICOM countries
not to hold elections within six months of CWC. Regardless
of when elections are held, the following are some of the
issues that are likely to be at the heart of the debates:
crime; corruption; PetroCaribe; Venezuela; cement; CWC; and
election spending. End Summary.
2. (C) PSM, leader of the PNP, has not commented on the
timing of elections. The likelihood that elections will be
called prior to CWC diminishes with each passing day because
the GOJ informally agreed not to hold elections within six
months of the CWC, which is scheduled to begin in March 2007.
Off the record, several members of the Jamaica Labor Party
(JLP) told NAS Director that they now anticipate elections
will be held after CWC since PSM probably wants to take
advantage of the good will and pride that a successful CWC
would create.
3. (SBU) The following issues are likely to be at the center
of the debate between the PSM and Bruce Golding, leader of
the JLP: crime; corruption; PetroCaribe; Venezuela; cement;
CWC; and election spending.
4. (SBU) Crime is a constant concern and the JLP will
probably attempt to capitalize on the high crime rate by
arguing PSM,s government is inept at fighting crime. Last
May, the JLP released its crime reduction plan that largely
focused on reducing police and political corruption in an
effort to make the Jamaica Constabulary Force more effective.
5. (C) Corruption is also a constant issue in Jamaica and
will almost certainly be capitalized upon by the JLP. Since
the JLP has been out of power since the mid-80s, they have
been denied the opportunity to loot the public coffers.
Consequently, the JLP will be quick to point out PNP
improprieties such as the Whitehouse Hotel Scandal that
recently forced Dr. Vin Lawrence to resign from all of his
seats on public boards and his position as treasurer of the
PNP.
6. (C) PetroCaribe may arise in several contexts. First, the
issue of whether PetroCaribe funds are being spent
appropriately (ref C) may continue to grab headlines
throughout the election. Second, PetroCaribe is expected to
come up in the context of Jamaica's growing ties to
Venezuela. The JLP is liable to continue to argue the
dangers of PetroCaribe and Venezuela's growing influence in
Jamaica.
7. (C) Cement scandals (ref D) and the ineptitude of Minister
of Industry, Technology, Energy and Commerce, Phillip
Paulwell, who is charged with overseeing the cement industry,
continues to haunt PSM and will probably loom throughout the
election.
8. (SBU) Whenever the election is held, the JLP will likely
argue that too much money is being spent (or was spent) in
connection with the CWC (ref E) and that the spending does
nothing to advance the interests of Jamaicans. The PNP will
almost certainly try to make the most of a "successful" CWC
(regardless of whether the event is actually successful).
9. (SBU) PSM is expected to increase spending before the
election, and the JLP will no doubt argue that: it is an
attempt to buy votes; Jamaica does not have the money to
support the spending; and, perhaps, the money was spent
inappropriately.
10. (C) COMMENT. With PSM's popularity on the wane, she is
certainly pondering whether waiting until after CWC, when
Jamaicans likely will be proud and jubilant after hosting the
event, would increase her chances of election. With CWC
likely to dominate the headlines next spring, perhaps people
will lose focus on the PNP,s shortcomings, thus undermining
the JLP's main message which is, "at least we are not the
PNP." End Comment.
JOHNSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON JM
SUBJECT: LIKELY ISSUES IF ELECTIONS CALLED
REF: A. KINGSTON 1482
B. KINGSTON 1546
C. KINGSTON 1298
D. KINGSTON 1286
E. KINGSTON 418
Classified By: Ambassador Brenda Johnson for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister, Portia Simpson Miller
(PSM),leader of the Peoples National Party (PNP),remains
silent on the timing of the next general election. If
elections are not called soon, PSM will have to wait until
after Cricket World Cup (CWC) (scheduled to begin in March
2007),due to an informal agreement among CARICOM countries
not to hold elections within six months of CWC. Regardless
of when elections are held, the following are some of the
issues that are likely to be at the heart of the debates:
crime; corruption; PetroCaribe; Venezuela; cement; CWC; and
election spending. End Summary.
2. (C) PSM, leader of the PNP, has not commented on the
timing of elections. The likelihood that elections will be
called prior to CWC diminishes with each passing day because
the GOJ informally agreed not to hold elections within six
months of the CWC, which is scheduled to begin in March 2007.
Off the record, several members of the Jamaica Labor Party
(JLP) told NAS Director that they now anticipate elections
will be held after CWC since PSM probably wants to take
advantage of the good will and pride that a successful CWC
would create.
3. (SBU) The following issues are likely to be at the center
of the debate between the PSM and Bruce Golding, leader of
the JLP: crime; corruption; PetroCaribe; Venezuela; cement;
CWC; and election spending.
4. (SBU) Crime is a constant concern and the JLP will
probably attempt to capitalize on the high crime rate by
arguing PSM,s government is inept at fighting crime. Last
May, the JLP released its crime reduction plan that largely
focused on reducing police and political corruption in an
effort to make the Jamaica Constabulary Force more effective.
5. (C) Corruption is also a constant issue in Jamaica and
will almost certainly be capitalized upon by the JLP. Since
the JLP has been out of power since the mid-80s, they have
been denied the opportunity to loot the public coffers.
Consequently, the JLP will be quick to point out PNP
improprieties such as the Whitehouse Hotel Scandal that
recently forced Dr. Vin Lawrence to resign from all of his
seats on public boards and his position as treasurer of the
PNP.
6. (C) PetroCaribe may arise in several contexts. First, the
issue of whether PetroCaribe funds are being spent
appropriately (ref C) may continue to grab headlines
throughout the election. Second, PetroCaribe is expected to
come up in the context of Jamaica's growing ties to
Venezuela. The JLP is liable to continue to argue the
dangers of PetroCaribe and Venezuela's growing influence in
Jamaica.
7. (C) Cement scandals (ref D) and the ineptitude of Minister
of Industry, Technology, Energy and Commerce, Phillip
Paulwell, who is charged with overseeing the cement industry,
continues to haunt PSM and will probably loom throughout the
election.
8. (SBU) Whenever the election is held, the JLP will likely
argue that too much money is being spent (or was spent) in
connection with the CWC (ref E) and that the spending does
nothing to advance the interests of Jamaicans. The PNP will
almost certainly try to make the most of a "successful" CWC
(regardless of whether the event is actually successful).
9. (SBU) PSM is expected to increase spending before the
election, and the JLP will no doubt argue that: it is an
attempt to buy votes; Jamaica does not have the money to
support the spending; and, perhaps, the money was spent
inappropriately.
10. (C) COMMENT. With PSM's popularity on the wane, she is
certainly pondering whether waiting until after CWC, when
Jamaicans likely will be proud and jubilant after hosting the
event, would increase her chances of election. With CWC
likely to dominate the headlines next spring, perhaps people
will lose focus on the PNP,s shortcomings, thus undermining
the JLP's main message which is, "at least we are not the
PNP." End Comment.
JOHNSON