ANALYST BRIEFS WORLD BANK PROGRAM ON FDLR

UNCLAS KIGALI 000984

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
// C O R R E C T E D C O P Y -- MARKINGS PARA SEVEN //


DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C





E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MCAP PREL KPKO MONUC CG RW
SUBJECT: ANALYST BRIEFS WORLD BANK PROGRAM ON FDLR


1. (SBU) Summary. On 6 October World Bank consultant Hans
Romkema briefed diplomats and Bank employees on the
Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). He
described the FDLR, estimated at 8,000 ) 10,000, as deeply
entrenched in North and South Kivu. Romkema described FDLR
leadership as organized and active in dictating local
economic and political conditions and said they continue to
be committed to the "Hutu Power" philosophy, but are
realistic about the low chances of seeing their political
objectives successful in Rwanda. End summary.


2. (SBU) Romkema, a Dutch citizen, has worked in the region
since 1996. He is currently an employee of Netherlands-based
Conflict and Transition Consultancies, contracted by the
World Bank's Multi-Country Demobilization and Reintegration
Program (MDRP) to study Armed Groups (AG) in the eastern DRC.
Romkema's study is due to be completed in early December, as



such, he did not want to release a draft but he was willing
to brief some of his preliminary findings to the attendees of
the MDRP Joint Partner Implementation Support Mission held in
Kigali 4-6 October. A summary of the MDRP's Partner's
Mission will be reported septel.


3. (SBU) Romkema's research included extensive time in the
Kivus meeting with GDRC and MONUC officials, regular citizens
and members of the FDLR. He reported that the FDLR
effectively controls over 50 of North and South Kivu, mainly
in areas with a relatively low population and no DRC Armed
Forces (FARDC) presence. Income generating activities
include agriculture, mining, trade, looting and tax
collection. Romkema noted that, unlike the Congolese who
often focus exclusively on mining or other mineral
exploitation, the Rwandans usually maintain their
agricultural activities in addition to exploiting mineral
resources, thus, they are generally better off economically
than the local Congolese.


4. (SBU) According to Romkema, the situation is generally



stable for the FDLR in the Kivus, the only change coming when
FARDC or MONUC mount offensive operations (which has been not
been a regular occurrance). FDLR members maintain regularity
in their daily activities, the command structure is in tact
and discipline is maintained. For example, troops must file
leave requests and receive authorization to leave the
immediate area. Minor actions continue, such as setting up
road blocks to control an area and collect taxes, however, no
large scale offensive operations are currently planned.


5. (SBU) While daily life is generally a settled routine,
there is uncertainty about the future. Romkema reported that
the majority of the combatants recognize that the FDLR's
political objectives will not be achieved and lines of
command and communication are gradually weakening, especially
in South Kivu. However, there is still recruitment and
training- probably enough to counter the losses of
ex-combatants who return to Rwanda. Current recruitment
efforts include women and children who are then trained in
defensive militia tactics. Trainers have used "Hutu power"
rhetoric including "we are still Interahamwe" and "there is



still a job to do" but the majority of the FDLR troops and
dependants do not agree with this attitude- a potential
problem for the hard-liners. (Note. MONUC reports about 500
FDLR officers, most of whom are ex-FAR or Interahamwe, who
must maintain control of the majority. As these hard-liners
would be tried as genocidaires in Rwanda, they have no
motivation to deviate from the political agenda and will
likely continue to exert maximum influence on the younger
members. End note.)


6. (SBU) Romkema confirmed earlier reports that reports that
the FDLR provided assistance to the presidential election
including manpower and logistical support (transportation)
and may have campaigned/threatened on behalf of Kabila.


7. (SBU) Comment. Romkema plans to continue his research and
will write a thorough report detailing his findings by year's
end- post will continue to monitor his progress. His
preliminary findings are consistent with Embassy's assessment
of the FDLR, that is, a well organized force of 8-10 thousand
combatants posing a minimal military threat to Rwanda but



continuing to operate independently and unlawfully in eastern
Congo, thus, destabilizing the region. High level GOR
officials, including President Kagame, have recently
acknowledged that the FDLR is no longer the threat to the
Rwandan government it once was, however, as long as it exists
it will continue to be the primary focus of the Rwandan
Defense Forces and a key issue in the normalization of
relations between Rwanda and DRC. End comment.


THURSTON