Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIEV481
2006-02-03 16:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: THIRD ELECTION ROUNDTABLE

Tags:  PGOV 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KIEV 000481 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: THIRD ELECTION ROUNDTABLE

REF: A. 05 KIEV 5137


B. 05 KIEV 4892

(U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for Internet
distribution. Please handle accordingly.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KIEV 000481

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: THIRD ELECTION ROUNDTABLE

REF: A. 05 KIEV 5137


B. 05 KIEV 4892

(U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for Internet
distribution. Please handle accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: At an Ambassador-hosted roundtable
discussion January 25, NGO representatives felt that the
recent gas and government crises could hurt ex-PM Tymoshenko
in the elections. One observer expressed doubt that a Rada
majority coalition would be formed after the March 26
elections, possibly leading to new elections. The NGO reps
opined that, while there would be no centrally organized
electoral fraud, there might be some abuse of administrative
resources by local politicians. They noted that procedural
problems stemming from recent changes to the election law
could open a route for legal challenges to the validity of
the elections. The NGO representatives observed that holding
the parliamentary and local elections at the same time would
create confusion and could potentially lead to violations of
election law. End summary.


2. (SBU) In preparation for the March 26 parliamentary and
local elections, Ambassador hosted the third in a series of
roundtable discussions with NGO representatives January 25.
Ambassador observed that the upcoming elections were every
bit as important as the 2004 Presidential election, and
stated that while they probably would not be as problematic
as in 2004, there were still many problems, particularly at
the local level. Ambassador noted that there would be
another large international observer effort this year, as
during the 2004 Presidential election.

Impact of Gas Crisis and Government Crisis
--------------


3. (SBU) Discussion started with a review of the impact of
the gas crisis and the Rada dismissal of the government on
the parliamentary election. Ilko Kucheriv of the Democratic
Initiatives Foundation summarized his organization's
predictions on post-election composition of the Rada.
Kucheriv predicted 6-7 parties would be in the Rada, with
ex-Prime Minister Yanukovych's Party of the Regions garnering
the most seats, followed by President Yushchenko's Peoples
Union Our Ukraine (OU) and the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT),
followed by the Socialists, Communists, Lytvyn's bloc, and
possibly Natalia Vitrenko's hard-left Progressive Socialist
Party. Kucheriv opined that neither Regions nor Yushchenko
and Tymoshenko combined would have a majority in the Rada,
leading to a period of instability after the elections.

Kucheriv noted that the President could dissolve the
Parliament and call new elections if a majority coalition
could not be formed.


4. (SBU) On the impact of the Rada vote to dismiss the
government, while Kucheriv did not have any polling data
since the dismissal vote, he thought Tymoshenko stood to lose
the most because her supporters might switch their support to
Yushchenko. Yuliya Tyshchenko from the Ukrainian Center for
Independent Political Research thought that the government
crisis could increase disillusionment with politics in
general and the Rada specifically. Tyshchenko thought that
Tymoshenko could lose a lot of support to Yushchenko due to
the crisis and that it brought into question whether a
reunification of the Orange team was possible. Roman Koshovy
from the Lviv branch of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine
disagreed, saying he thought Tymoshenko supporters would be
unlikely to switch their votes to Yushchenko because they
were generally more radical in their support for Tymoshenko.

Electoral Law Violations and Administrative Resources
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Ambassador commented about the importance of
monitoring violations in the electoral campaign and on
election day. Oleksandr Chernenko of the Committee of Voters
of Ukraine said that most electoral law violations and uses
of administrative resources were the initiative of local
authorities, without orders from the center. Chernenko noted
some problems in the formation of District Election
Committees (DECs),namely that some DECs were formed before
and some after the December 20 Presidential signing of
amendments to the election law, resulting in DECs formed
under different legal environments. Before December 20, an
unlimited number of party representatives could serve on the
DEC, chosen by the local council, whereas after December 20
the number was limited to 15 party representatives chosen by
a lottery.


6. (SBU) Roman Koshovy of the Lviv CVU said this trend was
also present in Lviv, with one DEC having 22 members and no
intention of disbanding and re-forming in conformity with the
revised election law. According to Chernenko, this disparity
provided a vehicle for legal challenges to the validity of
the vote. Chernenko noted that many people implicated in
electoral violations in the past had been appearing on
electoral commissions for the Parliamentary election,
offering the example of an alleged vote-rigger who was
appointed to a DEC in Uman, but was ultimately forced to
resign when the CVU publicized her record. (Note: DECs are
the election comissions to which polling station commissions
(PSCs) report in the parliamentary election, the role filled
by Territorial Election Commissions (TECs) in the 2004
Presidential elections. In the March 26 elections, TECs will
be separate organizations with a supervisory role over
polling station commissions for the local elections.)

Party List Transparency
--------------


7. (SBU) On the subject of party lists, Tetyana Boyko of
Pora! (i.e., Black Pora, the NGO, not the Yellow Pora
political party) indicated that some parties were trying to
keep from publicizing their party lists, particularly at the
local level, because allegedly corrupt individuals appeared
on their lists. Boyko stated that a lot of former SDPU(o)
and Lytvyn bloc members were showing up on the OU list in
Lviv and Lviv Oblast, including many who had put pressure on
Pora! during the 2004 Presidential campaign and Orange
Revolution. Roman Koshovy from the Lviv CVU cited instances
of regional "splittism," where erstwhile coalition partners
split and ran independently on the local level due to
disputes over the composition of their electoral list.

Media Environment
--------------


8. (SBU) Oleksandr Chekmyshev of the Common Space
Association/Equal Access Committee noted that the main
television channels were much more balanced in their
reportage than during the 2004 Presidential campaign.
Chekmyshev noted that NTN and Ukraina still showed some
Yanukovych sympathies, while TV1, 1 1 and Inter lean toward
OU. Regionally, Chekmyshev noted that media in the Donbas
region were still vulnerable to administrative resources use
by Regions. Chekmyshev said that the state-controlled media
in Donbas tended to support Yanukovych because they were
bankrolled by local politicians and business interests that
supported Yanukovych. Chekmyshev noted the increasing volume
of negative advertising, particularly aimed at the Orange
camp. When queried by Ambassador about whether this was an
issue of journalists being forced to say things or a case of
partisan mudslinging, Chekmyshev confirmed that it was not
administrative resources, just dirty politics.

Training of Election Commissions
--------------


9. (SBU) Chernenko from the CVU reported that CVU training
projects for election commission members were proceeding
apace, with 100 trainings already conducted and 100 more
planned. Chernenko noted that, while the trainees were
enthusiastic, the quality of the election commission members
could be better. Chernenko also noted that the government
was not effective in coordinating the training of election
commission members, sometimes not allocating rooms for
training, and not budgeting enough money for training
expenses. Chernenko estimated that 70-80 percent of election
commission members would have received training by election
day. Tyshchenko from the Ukrainian Center for Independent
Political Research indicated that they were holding 144
seminars in four regions of the country. Tyshchenko said her
organization had experienced some isolated problems,
particularly with Regions not wanting to send its Donetsk and
Luhansk commission members for training.

Holding Local and Parliamentary Elections Simultaneously
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Lviv CVU representative Koshovy said that CVU
lawyers had conducted an analysis of the Local and
Parliamentary election laws and determined that the result
would be "unpredictable" elections. According to Koshovy,
polling stations would have to count the parliamentary
election votes first, then package up the ballots and send
them to the DEC. The only way to maintain the integrity of
this process would be to have a second ballot box for the
local election, but this would cause confusion and might be
technically illegal, according to Koshovy. Chernenko from
the CVU indicated that Yushchenko would likely sign
amendments to both the local and parliamentary election laws
extending both their voting hours from 7 am to 10 pm. (Note:
Yushchenko signed these amendments January 31.)


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
HERBST