UKRAINE: OUR UKRAINE MOVES INTO OPPOSITION - OR NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 003866

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: OUR UKRAINE MOVES INTO OPPOSITION - OR NOT

REF: KIEV 3862

Classified By: The Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary: After months of negotiations over whether
or not to enter the governing coalition, President
Yushchenko's Our Ukraine coalition announced October 4 that
it would not join the coalition, but would formally join the
opposition in parliament. OU's Roman Bezsmertniy told the
press that negotiations had broken down over the coalition's
refusal to include the text of the "Universal" document,
adopted and signed by Yushchenko and the heads of the
political factions in parliament (with the exception of
Yuliya Tymoshenko). Yushchenko, traveling in Germany when
the announcement was made, noted only that if the Universal
was not included in a new coalition agreement, then OU should
not join. Bezsmertniy went on to say that the OU faction
would formally call on the "orange" ministers in the
Government to resign during the October 5 Rada session.


2. (C) Comment. Even if OU formally does announce the end
of coalition talks and joins the opposition, it remains
unclear whether any of the "orange" ministers will feel the
need to resign or whether the Party of Regions-led coalition
might seek to force out these ministers in a Rada vote (only
a simple majority is needed). As of 1500 on October 5, the
OU faction leaders were in an extended meeting with
Yushchenko, with no further public decision -- or
confirmation -- of the decision not to join the coalition.
Even Tymoshenko told the press that she was ready to welcome
OU into opposition, but that she was waiting for a final
decision from Yushchenko and the party. Whether or not OU
joins the ruling coalition will have no effect on the
government; the ruling Anti-Crisis Coalition has plenty of
votes to maintain its parliamentary majority.


3. (C) Comment continued. In our conversations with OU
figures and the Prime Minister (reftel),all expressed
confidence that this was a temporary conflict that would be
resolved over the next few days. PM Yanukovych, out of Kyiv
all day on October 5, told visiting DAS Kramer that he
wouldn't be able to control his parliamentary allies if they
decided to vote on the "orange" ministers, but there was no
sense of concern about what might happen. Even FM Tarasyuk,
widely believed to be in Regions' sights as the first
ministerial head on the chopping block, was relaxed, telling
visiting DAS Kramer that even if he is voted out of his
office, he fully expected to return in an "acting" capacity
-- something that would not affect his ability to lead the
Ministry. What is still unknown is what Yushchenko will
decide to do regarding the possible move into opposition and
the status of "his" ministers in the government.
Yushchenko's extended meeting with OU's leadership implies
that Bezsmertniy's announcement was not a final decision.
Also of interest, if OU really does join the opposition, will
be the next round of consultations between Yuliya
Tymoshenko's BYuT faction and OU over the possibility of
forming a united coalition - not a done deal by any means.
End comment.

OU - Heading for Opposition?
--------------

4. (SBU) Roman Bezsmertniy appeared almost giddy with
excitement as he appeared on local television the evening of
October 4 to announce that OU was breaking off negotiations
with the Party of Regions' led Anti-Crisis Coalition and
joining the parliamentary opposition. Citing irreconcilable
differences between the blocks over including the text of the
"universal" document in new coalition agreement, Bezsmertniy
said that talks were finished and that OU would now begin
negotiations with Yuliya Tymoshenko's BYuT faction, the only
declared opposition force in the Rada. Interestingly enough,
earlier that same day, Bezsmertniy had set a deadline of 4 pm
for reaching agreement on new coalition agreement. However,
over the past weeks, deadlines had come and gone, without any
decision. The OU announcement followed an earlier decision
the same day by FM Tarasyuk's "Rukh" party, one of the six
constituent members of OU, to enter into opposition.


5. (C) The only bombshell dropped by Bezsmertniy during his
statement was that OU would call on its ministers to resign
from the Government and would call on President Yushchenko to
do the same (presumably with reference to his two nominees --
Foreign Minister Tarasyuk and Defense Minister Hrytsenko).
As always in Ukrainian politics, Bezsmertniy did offer an
"out" to the "orange ministers." They could resign from
their own parties and factions and remain in the government.
However, he concluded that they could not remain in the
government with their party and bloc allegiances intact.


6. (C) After Bezsmertniy's announcement, OU's Anatolii

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Kinakh told the press that talks with the anti-Crisis
Coalition had not been terminated, but merely "suspended."
Comments from PR's Taras Chornovil and Socialist Rada Speaker
Moroz both said that the doors of a broad coalition "remain
open," questioning Bezsmertniy's characterization of the
situation. Moroz told the press that an OU decision to
withdraw from coalition negotiations "would not lead to a
Cabinet crisis" and that this was an issue that would have to
be discussed by the President, PM and Speaker. Out on the
stump October 5 in Mykolaiv, PM Yanukovych continued to
stress the positive saying "I think that the president and I
can handle the emotions of certain politicians, finalize the
process and sign a coalition agreement with Our Ukraine in
the near future. I hope that the problem will be resolved
soon."


7. (C) Further confirmation that OU's move to the
opposition was not a done deal was the lack of action at the
Rada on October 5. The entire OU political leadership
started a closed door meeting with President Yushchenko at
1030 am Kyiv time to decide the faction's next move.
Although the meeting was common knowledge at the Rada,
Yushchenko's press service said that they could neither
confirm nor deny the meeting. However, as time passed,
politicians at the Rada began to suggest that Bezsmertniy's
announcement of an OU in opposition might have been premature.

Where in the World is Viktor Yushchenko?
--------------

8. (C) Once again during a political moment of crisis,
Yushchenko was out of the country, this time in Berlin
receiving, as one disgusted "orange" politician noted,
"another award for the Orange Revolution." Speaking in
Berlin, Yushchenko told the press that a coalition between OU
and the Anti-Crisis Coalition forces was only possible if the
new coalition agreement reflected all ten articles of the
universal. Arguing that the only reason for OU to join the
coalition was to "unite the nation," Yushchenko said that if
the decision not to include the language of the Universal was
a "mere political trick" than talks on coalition should be
discontinued. Yushchenko returned from Berlin at 3 o'clock
in the morning on October 5 to meet with the OU leadership.
He made no public comment about the issue of whether or not
his ministers would resign.

Can There Be a United Opposition?
--------------

9. (SBU) The Ukrainian politician who did appear at the
Rada on October 5 was Yuliya Tymoshenko. Speaking to the
press, Tymoshenko said that her team had spoken briefly with
OU today and that "their decision (to join the opposition) is
not yet final -- there are some doubts and possibilities to
return to (discussions) of a pro-government coalition." When
asked whether OU and BYuT discussed the formation of a single
opposition, Tymoshenko responded "the talks have not started
yet. The opposition should get a clear message from OU that
they are really ready to join the opposition and that they
are not blackmailing Party of Regions and the (Anti-Crisis)
coalition in order to come back." Tymoshenko added that if
OU decided to join the opposition, BYuT would not demand the
signing of any additional agreements. OU statements inside
the Rada Chamber and its votes will demonstrate whether OU is
in the opposition.


10. (SBU) OU MP Martynenko told us at the Rada October 5
acknowledged that it might not be easy to have a united
opposition with Tymoshenko and BYuT. He noted that "we have
much in common with BYuT and we will coordinate some of our
actions, as the two political forces have a certain history
of relations and cooperation. Unfortunately these relations
were not always positive .. we, OU and BYuT, will have to
consider all our past mistakes in order to have a normal
perspective of cooperation."


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor