UKRAINE: ORANGE-BLUE COALITION TALKS ALLEGEDLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002359

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI MARR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ORANGE-BLUE COALITION TALKS ALLEGEDLY
MOVING QUICKLY

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) A coalition agreement between the Party of Regions and
Our Ukraine (OU) could be reached tonight (June 16),
according to Regions MP and de facto shadow foreign minister
Leonid Kozhara. In a conversation with DCM, Kozhara
dismissed OU's public distinction between "consultations" and
"negotiations" as semantics; the two sides were at the
bargaining table and "had more in common than differences."
Kozhara dismissed press speculation about key Orange-Blue
coalition government positions having already been filled;
once a coalition deal was sealed, the two sides would agree
on Rada committee structure, and then Regions leader
Yanukovych would work out the top job assignments with
President Yushchenko. Kozhara said the coalition agreement
text addressed Ukrainian cooperation with NATO and referred
to the status of the Russian language in terms of the
Ukrainian constitution. Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) MP Hryhoriy
Nemirya told us separately Yushchenko and Tymoshenko met the
afternoon of June 16 following a meeting that morning where
BYuT and the Socialists rejected OU's offer to join a grand
coalition. Earlier, Yuliya Tymoshenko and her MPs had voted
June 15 on next steps; the "overwhelming majority" wanted to
continue efforts to form an Orange coalition until June 24
(when the president was empowered to call new elections if he
chose to),and only then go into opposition. Citing an
unpublished NGO Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF) poll,
Nemirya claimed the majority of respondents still wanted an
Orange coalition. The DIF's director, though, told us the
poll only showed that public support for Yushchenko was
weakening in western Ukraine -- which would help BYuT if new
elections were called. As of 1800, OU's political council
was meeting; OU's point man in the coalition formation
effort, Roman Bezsmertny, pledged to call DCM with a readout.
In a conversation with Ambassador on the evening of June 16,
Foreign Minister Tarasyuk said he expected a coalition
decision on Monday, June 19. End summary.

Regions: Coalition Agreement Maybe Tonight...
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2. (C) Party of Regions MP Leonid Kozhara, who serves as the
party's de facto shadow foreign minister, told us on the
afternoon of June 16 that Regions could finish a coalition
agreement with Our Ukraine (OU) by as early as tonight (June
16). Kozhara dismissed OU's distinction between
"consultations" and "negotiations" as semantics (reftel); the
two sides were at the bargaining table and "had more in
common than differences." Kozhara, who left the talks to
take our call, predicted that once the two sides finished the
coalition agreement, they would quickly move on to discuss
Rada committees and filling key government positions. (Note:
In a conversation with Ambassador on the evening of June 16,
Foreign Minister Tarasyuk said he expected a coalition
decision on Monday, June 19. Tarasyuk emphasized that OU was
negotiating with its Orange partners as well as with Regions;
neither option had been closed off.)

...The Viktors Alone Will Make Key Assignments...
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3. (C) Responding to a question about a June 16 Ukrainska
Pravda article that, quoting "sources," went into great
detail about who would do what in an Orange-Blue coalition
government, Kozhara attributed the article to leaks from
working-level MPs who were holding preliminary personnel
discussions. Kozhara emphasized that key position
assignments would be worked out "at the top": directly
between Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych and President
Yushchenko.

...And NATO Membership Decided Via Referendum
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4. (C) Pressed for details on the contents of the coalition
agreement, Kozhara said that the language on NATO was
concise: Ukraine would develop "productive, cooperative
relations" with NATO, and membership in the alliance would be
decided via a referendum. Kozhara refused to be drawn out on
the question of Russian being made the second State language,
simply noting that, on this issue, the coalition agreement
text was "in line with the Constitution" and contained no
formula for granting "official status" for Russian.

Tymoshenko Bloc: Still Doing CPR On Team Orange...
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5. (C) Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) MP and Tymoshenko foreign

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policy guru Hryhoriy Nemirya told us June 16 that Yushchenko
and Tymoshenko met in the late afternoon of June 16. In the
morning of the same day, the Orange troika had met at the
Rada, with Tymoshenko and Oleksandr Turchynov representing
BYuT, Oleksandr Moroz and Yosef Vinsky representing the
Socialist Party (SP),and Roman Bezsmertny and Prime Minister
Yuriy Yekhanurov from OU. The talks, Nemirya said, went
nowhere; Bezsmertny and Yekhanurov had urged BYuT and the SP
to join OU and Regions in a grand coalition, a proposition
that Tymoshenko immediately rejected and Moroz rejected after
consulting with the Socialist Party's political council. The
troika agreed, though, to meet again on June 17. Nemirya
said OU and Regions were, in fact, at the negotiating table;
OU was being led by oligarch Petro Poroshenko, and Regions by
MPs Mykola Azarov and Raisa Bohatyrova.

...BYuT Troops Solidly With Yuliya..
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6. (C) Nemirya related that BYuT gathered its 129 MPs on June
15 to vote on what to do next. The BYuT troops were offered
three options by Tymoshenko: join a grand coalition with OU
and Regions, immediately go into opposition, or continue
talks about forming an Orange coalition until June 24 (when
the president will have the constitutional authority can call
new elections but is not required to do so) and then, if need
be, go into opposition. According to Nemirya, there were
"zero" votes for joining a grand coalition, 36 votes for
going into opposition, and an "overwhelming majority" for
continuing to find a way to make an Orange coalition happen.


7. (SBU) Nemirya, citing an unpublished poll by the respected
NGO Democratic Initiatives Foundation (DIF),claimed that the
majority of the Ukrainian people still wanted an Orange
coalition. However, we spoke with DIF Director Ilko
Kucheriv, a trusted Embassy interlocutor, who told us that
the poll Nemirya apparently referred to did not contain any
questions about an Orange coalition. It did ask people how
they would vote if new parliamentary elections were held; the
poll indicated that the results would be roughly the same,
although media speculation about an OU-Regions coalition was
eating into support for Yushchenko in Lviv and
Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts -- good news for BYuT, Kucheriv said.

...And OU: We'll Call You
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8. (SBU) As of 1800, OU's political council was meeting;
Bezsmertny pledged to call DCM with a readout when the
leadership huddle ended. Separately, Bezsmertny's longtime
aide confirmed to us that MPs Petro Poroshenko and Roman
Zvarych were representing OU in the talks with Regions.
Bezsmertny and Yekhanurov were the designated
Tymoshenko-Moroz interlocutors for OU.

Comment: Possible Curtain Calls to This Drama
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9. (C) Comment: The June 24 deadline that Nemirya referred to
in paragraph 6 only gives the president the constitutional
authority to call new elections. Yushchenko is not required
to dismiss the Rada, and has said publicly that he will not
call new elections. The bottom line: the twists and turns in
this saga could continue beyond June 24.
Taylor