Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIEV2329
2006-06-15 15:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: AT THE RADA, PARTY OF REGIONS UPBEAT

Tags:  PGOV PINR SOCI MARR UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0460
OO RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #2329/01 1661525
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 151525Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KIEV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9916
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002329 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI MARR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: AT THE RADA, PARTY OF REGIONS UPBEAT

REF: A. KIEV 2316

B. KIEV 2188

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002329

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI MARR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: AT THE RADA, PARTY OF REGIONS UPBEAT

REF: A. KIEV 2316

B. KIEV 2188

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The action at the June 15 Rada session was not at the
rostrum, but on the floor and in the hallways, where Party of
Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych shook hands, slapped backs
and assured reporters that Regions would sign a coalition
agreement on June 20 -- when the Rada reconvenes. Our
Ukraine (OU) MPs working the hallways offered a more nuanced
view, stressing that OU was "consulting" and not yet
"negotiating" with Regions; OU MP Anatoliy Matviyenko called
on the Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) to join in a grand coalition
with OU and Regions. Ukrainska Pravda reported that OU will
not move into formal negotiations with Regions until Regions
agrees to change its stance on NATO and drops its insistence
on a federalist form of government and Russian as a second
State language. Senior BYuT MPs told us that the bloc would
participate in an Orange coalition or go into opposition;
there would be no cooperation with Regions. BYuT MPs were
headed back to their constituencies to prepare local
supporters for BYuT turning up the heat on Yushchenko. For
her part, Yuliya Tymoshenko blasted the president for
"blessing" the formation of an Orange-Blue coalition, and
defiantly announced that she would never "hand Ukraine over
to the clans" by teaming up with OU and Regions; BYuT, she
stressed, was ready to "fight for Ukraine." Privately, some
BYuT MPs told us that they would be reaching out to First
Lady Kateryna Yushchenko in an effort to get her to persuade
the president to revive the Orange coalition talks. A
well-connected newspaper editor and a senior aide to
Socialist Party leader Moroz also told us that Moroz would
see Yushchenko before he departs June 16 for Kazakhstan. End
summary.

Rada Session: Little Action At The Rostrum
--------------


2. (C) The June 15 Rada session lasted about two hours, with
MPs spending most of that time discussing whether or not to
consolidate some of the Rada's committees, specifically the

committees on social policy and war veterans/persons with
disabilities. Prior to adjourning until June 20 at 10:00
a.m., MPs voted on a Communist Party proposal to amend the
Rada's agenda to include discussion of forming an ad hoc
investigatory committee into recent events in Crimea and
Dnipropetrovsk (Refs A and B); the measure, unanimously
supported by the Communists and the Party of Regions, did not
pass. (Comment: The Regions support flies in the face of
Roman Zvarych's June 14 assurance to DCM that OU would "close
its doors" if Regions backed such a measure. See septel.
The fact that the defeated measure was simply to add an item
to the Rada's agenda, rather than a vote actually to form
such a committee probably provides enough of a fig leaf,
however, to save OU's face and keep the OU-Regions
"discussion" going.)

...But A Lot On The Floor And In The Hallways
--------------


3. (SBU) The real action at Thursday's session was on the
Rada floor and in the hallways. With the media reporting
before the start of the session that an Orange-Blue coalition
between Our Ukraine (OU) and Regions was imminent, Regions
MPs were ebullient. The beaming Regions' leader, Viktor
Yanukovych, spent much of the session circulating among his
MPs, shaking hands, slapping backs, kissing cheeks and
occasionally huddling with Regions' heavyweights Borys
Kolesnikov and Yevhen Kushnaryov. (Note: Regions deputy and
financial backer Rinat Akhmetov was absent.)

Coalition Status: Regions' View...
--------------


4. (SBU) Speaking with a small group of journalists and
diplomats, Regions MPs Andriy Klyuyev and Taras Chornovil
stressed that Regions now had the initiative in the coalition
formation process. They emphasized that Regions was
negotiating, not consulting, with Our Ukraine, and noted that
MP Mykola Azarov had the lead for Regions. They declined to
predict when a coalition would be formed or who would get key
positions; Klyuyev stressed quietly and repeatedly that "all
possibilities" were being discussed. However, following the
close of today's session, Yanukovych himself told journalists
that Regions would sign a coalition agreement on June 20; in
response to a question about who would serve as prime
minister, Yanukovych -- in a reference to Regions'
first-place finish in the March parliamentary elections --

KIEV 00002329 002 OF 002


said that the "Ukrainian people had already determined" who
the new prime minister would be (i.e., him).

...The Our Ukraine Take...
--------------


5. (SBU) Our Ukraine MPs Roman Zvarych and Anatoliy
Matviyenko reiterated to us, and to the press, that Our
Ukraine was engaged in "consultations" not negotiations with
Regions (septel). Asked to explain the difference,
Matviyenko emphasized that Our Ukraine truly wanted the
Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) at the negotiating table along with
Regions. Our Ukraine was ready to proceed "bilaterally" with
Regions, but still hoped for a "best-case" broad coalition
that included OU, Regions and BYuT, Matviyenko claimed.
(Note: Ukrainska Pravda reported on June 15, citing
unidentified OU sources, that OU would only move from
"consultations" to "negotiations" with Regions if Regions
dropped its support for Federalism and making Russian a
second State language and changed its stance on NATO.
Without those concessions, according to the OU sources,
"there will be no negotiations.")

...The Tymoshenko Camp Message...
--------------


6. (SBU) Senior BYuT MP Mykola Tomenko, speaking to a crowd
of journalists and diplomats, declared that BYuT's position
had not changed: the bloc would participate in an Orange
coalition or go into opposition. He urged OU, and President
Yushchenko, to carefully review the offer made on June 14 by
Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz (Ref A) and return to
the negotiating table. BYuT and the SP were not trying to
infringe on the president's constitutional powers to appoint
oblast and rayon chiefs, but simply wanted an equitable
distribution of government posts based on the results of the
March parliamentary elections. BYuT MP and Tymoshenko
foreign policy guru Hryhoriy Nemirya told us privately that
BYuT MPs would use the next few days to return to their
constituencies and prepare people for BYuT going into
opposition and turning up the heat on Yushchenko. For her
part, Yuliya Tymoshenko blasted the president for "blessing"
the formation of an Orange-Blue coalition, and confirmed to
reporters at the Rada that she would never "hand Ukraine over
to the clans" by teaming up with OU and Regions; BYuT, she
stressed, was ready to "fight for Ukraine."

...And The Missing Man
--------------


7. (C) Privately, BYuT MP Volodymyr Polokhalo told us that
BYuT MPs would try to reach out to the president's wife,
Kateryna, in the next few days in an effort "to talk some
sense" into Yushchenko. The president was being manipulated
by OU oligarchs like Petro Poroshenko and was now simply a
figurehead, Polokhalo stressed. Separately, Vysoky Zamok
Chief Editor Nataliya Balyuk (a Tymoshenko partisan whose
husband is a BYuT MP) and longtime Moroz aide Olena Nykulyn
told us that the Socialist Party chief would see Yushchenko
prior to the president's departure on June 16 for a two-day
trip to an energy/regional security conference in Kazakhstan.
(Note: Later on June 15, the President's press service
reported Yushchenko, who "still supported" an Orange
coalition, had met with Moroz.) Balyuk, a veteran observer
of Ukrainian politics, likened the state of Team Orange to
that of a cancer patient. The patient may in the end die
prematurely of cancer, Balyuk said, "but there's always hope
for a miraculous recovery."
Taylor