UKRAINE: AT THE RADA, SIGNS OF AN ORANGE-BLUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002316

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI MARR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: AT THE RADA, SIGNS OF AN ORANGE-BLUE
COALITION

REF: A. KIEV 2281

B. KIEV 2279

C. KIEV 2190

D. KIEV 2296

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) At the June 14 parliament (Rada) session, Socialist
Party leader Oleksandr Moroz attempted to revive talks to
form an Orange coalition by dropping his demand to become
Rada Speaker. In return, he asked Our Ukraine (OU) to divide
all government posts, down to district chiefs, among the
Orange partners in accordance with the March 26 parliamentary
election results -- a demand that President Yushchenko's
spokeswoman rejected later on June 14. Our Ukraine's point
man in the coalition formation effort, Roman Bezsmertny,
called on OU's potential partners to compromise and form a
strong government capable of implementing serious economic
and political reforms. Senior Party of Regions MP Mykola
Azarov, looking straight at the OU Rada contingent, argued
for the creation of a "broad coalition," stressing that
Regions was professional and committed to democracy and
Euro-integration. Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) leader Yuliya
Tymoshenko blamed OU, and President Yushchenko personally,
for failing to create an Orange coalition; BYuT, she said,
would never join an Orange-Blue coalition, which she likened
to "vinaigrette." Regions and OU MPs voted together to veto
a measure on the number of committees in the Rada, prompting
Communist MP Martynyuk, who chaired today's session, to
remark -- to the cheers of Regions MPs -- that "maybe
tomorrow a new coalition will be formed." The Rada will
reconvene at 10:00 a.m. on June 15. Moderate Regions MP
Volodymyr Makeyenko told us privately that an Orange-Blue
deal could be done as early as the morning of June 15. He
also warned that the Rada may vote tomorrow to authorize an
inquiry into Sea Breeze and the events in Feodosiya;
Makeyenko said he would likely chair the inquiry to keep it
out of the hands of hotheaded Regions MPs who had disgraced
themselves in Crimea. End summary.

Rada Reconvenes: Olive Branch From Moroz...
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2. (SBU) At the June 14 Rada session, which opened not with
fisticuffs but with a hearty bipartisan cheer for Ukraine's
World Cup team, Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz
unexpectedly attempted to revive the Orange coalition talks
by dropping his controversial demand to be made Rada Speaker
(Ref A). In exchange, he called on Our Ukraine (OU) to agree
to divide among Orange coalition partners all government
positions, down to the district chief level, in accordance
with the results of the March 26 parliamentary elections.

...Criticism From Bezsmertny...
--------------


3. (SBU) Foreshadowing the rejection of Moroz's offer that
would come later on June 14 from President Yushchenko's
spokeswoman, OU's point man in the coalition talks, Roman
Bezsmertny, spoke eloquently about what he called the
"difficult work" of a "genuine" democracy. Coalition
formation in the Kuchma era had been simple, achieved with
orders and threats. He called on all of OU's potential
partners to "compromise" and form a coalition that would not
be "weak" but instead capable of implementing serious
economic and political reforms -- reforms that Bezsmertny
said Moroz opposed. (Note: Moroz' counter-offer infringes on
the president's constitutional power to name the leaders of
the four "power ministries" -- the Ministries of Defense and
Interior, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Prosecutor
General's Office -- as well as appoint oblast and rayon
chiefs.)

...A Plea For A Broad Coalition From Regions...
-------------- --


4. (SBU) Senior Party of Regions MP Mykola Azarov used his
turn at the microphone to argue for the creation of a
so-called "broad coalition" between Regions and OU. Draped
in a Team Ukraine soccer scarf, like all his Regions
colleagues, Azarov -- looking directly at the OU contingent
-- emphasized that Regions was professional, committed to
democracy and "Euro-integration," and ready to start work
"immediately."

...And Brimstone From Yuliya
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5. (SBU) A fired-up Yuliya Tymoshenko blasted OU, needling
President Yushchenko for the failure to form an Orange
coalition. Our Ukraine, she claimed, was merely going
through the motions and would find "yet another excuse" to
reject Moroz' olive branch. Tymoshenko stressed that her
bloc (BYuT) would never join in OU's "broad coalition" with
Regions, acidly referring to it as "vinaigrette", i.e., a
combination of immiscible oil and vinegar. She praised two
senior OU MPs who, in an OU political council meeting on June
13, argued against reaching out to Regions; one of the MPs,
Mykola Katerynchuk, told the Rada that in an Orange coalition
"some OU MPs would lose" but that in an Orange-Blue coalition
"democracy would lose." BYuT, Tymoshenko emphasized, was
ready to move into opposition with the SP.

A Sign Of Things To Come?
--------------


6. (SBU) After a break for faction leader negotiations, which
went nowhere, the Rada voted down two proposals: one on the
number of parliamentary committees and the other on changing
the way the Rada's agenda is set. (Comment: The change in
Rada procedures conceivably could have allowed deputies to
elect a speaker in the absence of a governing coalition.)
However, OU voted with Regions in vetoing the first measure,
prompting Communist MP Adam Martynyuk, the provisional
presidium member who chaired today's session, to remark -- to
the cheers of Regions MPs -- that "maybe tomorrow a new
coalition will be formed."

Tomorrow
--------------


7. (C) The Rada will convene again June 15 at 10:00 a.m.
local time. Senior Regions MPs, including party leader
Viktor Yanukovych, told the press following the Rada session
that Regions would form a coalition "in a matter of days."
In a private conversation with us, moderate Regions MP
Volodymyr Makeyenko told us that the Orange-Blue deal could
be done as early as the morning of June 15. Makeyenko also
warned us that the Rada may pass a resolution creating an
ad-hoc investigatory committee into Sea Breeze and the recent
protests in Feodosiya (Refs B and C). Makeyenko said that he
would likely be named to chair the committee; moderate
Regions MPs wanted to keep the committee "out of the hands"
of hotheads like Yevhen Kushnarov. Makeyenko added that
there "were a lot" of Regions MPs who were embarrassed by
Kushnarov's antics in Crimea, and promised that, as committee
chairman, he would "not make too much noise."

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Our Ukraine's effort to reach out to Regions and begin
coalition formation talks apparently headed off a Regions
attempt to alter the Rada's Rules of Procedures, elect a new
Speaker, and use OU defectors to unconstitutionally form a
new governing coalition (Ref D). MP Andriy Shevchenko,
number five on the BYuT list, confirmed to us that
Tymoshenko, Moroz and Bezsmertny met briefly at the Rada
following the close of today's session, but there were no
serious discussions about an Orange option. As of 1900, we
have no information to suggest that the Orange players are
talking, but understand that, as of 1900, OU's political
council is meeting. Bezsmertny promised to call us with a
readout once the session ends. Separately, Ukrainska Pravda
is reporting that Yushchenko is insisting that a coalition be
formed immediately, but that he cannot participate in the
coalition talks and should only "judge the process."
Taylor