Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIEV2296
2006-06-13 16:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:
UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY'S (JUNE 14)
how-toVZCZCXRO7481 PP RUEHDBU DE RUEHKV #2296 1641604 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 131604Z JUN 06 FM AMEMBASSY KIEV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9874 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L KIEV 002296
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY'S (JUNE 14)
RADA SESSION
REF: KIEV 2281
Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L KIEV 002296
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY'S (JUNE 14)
RADA SESSION
REF: KIEV 2281
Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) With no Orange coalition formed as of 1800 local time,
two aides to senior Orange politicians have told us that the
Party of Regions may essentially take charge of the coalition
formation process at the June 14 Rada session. According to
our interlocutors, Communist MP Martynyuk, who is slated to
chair tomorrow's session, will likely call for a vote on
amending the Rada's rules for electing a new Speaker. Our
contacts, echoing what Yuliya Tymoshenko told the DCM on June
12 (reftel),claimed that the Party of Regions had enough
defectors from the Orange camp to win the vote. Martynyuk,
in this scenario, would then call for a sec ret, paper ballot
vote for a new Rada speaker. Regions would then try to form
a so-called "alternative inter-factional majority" with the
Orange defectors and the Communists, though legal experts
have asserted that such a coalition would be
unconstitutional. End summary.
With No Orange Coalition (Yet)...
--------------
2. (SBU) As of 1800 local time, and with no announcement of
an Orange coalition, a senior aide to Our Ukraine's point man
in the coalition talks, Roman Bezsmertny, and a longtime aide
to Socialist Party (SP) leader Oleksandr Moroz have
separately sketched for us a picture of what may occur when
the Rada reconvenes on June 14.
...Here's What May Happen At The Rada
--------------
3. (C) Echoing what Bloc Tymoshenko leader Yuliya Tymoshenko
told the DCM on the evening of June 12 (reftel),our contacts
predicted that Communist MP Adam Martynyuk, one of the five
members of the Rada's provisional presidium, would chair the
session. Martynyuk would likely call for an immediate vote
to amend Article 14 of the Rada's Rule of Procedures to
permit the election of a new Speaker in the absence of a
governing coalition. Again echoing Tymoshenko, our
interlocutors asserted that the Party of Regions had the
votes to amend Article 14. (Note: Tymoshenko's MP head count
was 186 Regions, 21 Communists, 20 Our Ukraine from the
Poroshenko and Kinakh factions, and 3 defectors from the SP.)
4. (SBU) Our contacts asserted that if Article 14 was
amended, Martynyuk would immediately call, in accordance with
the Rada's rules, for a sec ret vote (by paper ballot) to
elect a new Speaker. Here our interlocutors diverged:
Bezsmertny's aide predicted Regions MP Raisa Bohatyrova would
get the Speaker's post, while Moroz' aide said her boss had
been "promised" the job by Regions in return for joining a
Regions/Communists/Orange Defectors alliance. To further
muddle things, Bohatyrova repeatedly told the press on June
13 that Regions' leader Viktor Yanukovych may get the
Speakership.
5. (SBU) Our contacts would not speculate on anything beyond
the election of a new Speaker at the June 14 session.
However, the media are reporting that Regions, the Communists
and the OU/SP defectors will attempt to form an "alternative
inter-factional majority," though most legal experts contend
that such a majority would be unconstitutional.
Comment: Where Things Stand
--------------
6. (C) Yushchenko, Bezsmertny and Prime Minister Yekhanurov
apparently did meet sometime during the morning of June 13
(reftel) and decided to give the Orange coalition talks with
BYuT and the SP more time. Foreign Minister Tarasyuk told
Ambassador on June 13 that the troika was meeting during the
afternoon, but that the Socialists remained adamant in their
insistence on the Speakership for Moroz (septel). As of 1800
local time, though, those talks have reportedly produced no
results, and Our Ukraine is publicly calling for all parties
that won seats in the March parliamentary elections to gather
at the negotiating table. While we cannot predict what will
happen tomorrow morning at the Rada, the scenario outlined by
our interlocutors is one possible variant in what promises to
be another eventful, even if not productive, day at the Rada.
Taylor
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: WHAT MAY HAPPEN AT WEDNESDAY'S (JUNE 14)
RADA SESSION
REF: KIEV 2281
Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary
--------------
1. (C) With no Orange coalition formed as of 1800 local time,
two aides to senior Orange politicians have told us that the
Party of Regions may essentially take charge of the coalition
formation process at the June 14 Rada session. According to
our interlocutors, Communist MP Martynyuk, who is slated to
chair tomorrow's session, will likely call for a vote on
amending the Rada's rules for electing a new Speaker. Our
contacts, echoing what Yuliya Tymoshenko told the DCM on June
12 (reftel),claimed that the Party of Regions had enough
defectors from the Orange camp to win the vote. Martynyuk,
in this scenario, would then call for a sec ret, paper ballot
vote for a new Rada speaker. Regions would then try to form
a so-called "alternative inter-factional majority" with the
Orange defectors and the Communists, though legal experts
have asserted that such a coalition would be
unconstitutional. End summary.
With No Orange Coalition (Yet)...
--------------
2. (SBU) As of 1800 local time, and with no announcement of
an Orange coalition, a senior aide to Our Ukraine's point man
in the coalition talks, Roman Bezsmertny, and a longtime aide
to Socialist Party (SP) leader Oleksandr Moroz have
separately sketched for us a picture of what may occur when
the Rada reconvenes on June 14.
...Here's What May Happen At The Rada
--------------
3. (C) Echoing what Bloc Tymoshenko leader Yuliya Tymoshenko
told the DCM on the evening of June 12 (reftel),our contacts
predicted that Communist MP Adam Martynyuk, one of the five
members of the Rada's provisional presidium, would chair the
session. Martynyuk would likely call for an immediate vote
to amend Article 14 of the Rada's Rule of Procedures to
permit the election of a new Speaker in the absence of a
governing coalition. Again echoing Tymoshenko, our
interlocutors asserted that the Party of Regions had the
votes to amend Article 14. (Note: Tymoshenko's MP head count
was 186 Regions, 21 Communists, 20 Our Ukraine from the
Poroshenko and Kinakh factions, and 3 defectors from the SP.)
4. (SBU) Our contacts asserted that if Article 14 was
amended, Martynyuk would immediately call, in accordance with
the Rada's rules, for a sec ret vote (by paper ballot) to
elect a new Speaker. Here our interlocutors diverged:
Bezsmertny's aide predicted Regions MP Raisa Bohatyrova would
get the Speaker's post, while Moroz' aide said her boss had
been "promised" the job by Regions in return for joining a
Regions/Communists/Orange Defectors alliance. To further
muddle things, Bohatyrova repeatedly told the press on June
13 that Regions' leader Viktor Yanukovych may get the
Speakership.
5. (SBU) Our contacts would not speculate on anything beyond
the election of a new Speaker at the June 14 session.
However, the media are reporting that Regions, the Communists
and the OU/SP defectors will attempt to form an "alternative
inter-factional majority," though most legal experts contend
that such a majority would be unconstitutional.
Comment: Where Things Stand
--------------
6. (C) Yushchenko, Bezsmertny and Prime Minister Yekhanurov
apparently did meet sometime during the morning of June 13
(reftel) and decided to give the Orange coalition talks with
BYuT and the SP more time. Foreign Minister Tarasyuk told
Ambassador on June 13 that the troika was meeting during the
afternoon, but that the Socialists remained adamant in their
insistence on the Speakership for Moroz (septel). As of 1800
local time, though, those talks have reportedly produced no
results, and Our Ukraine is publicly calling for all parties
that won seats in the March parliamentary elections to gather
at the negotiating table. While we cannot predict what will
happen tomorrow morning at the Rada, the scenario outlined by
our interlocutors is one possible variant in what promises to
be another eventful, even if not productive, day at the Rada.
Taylor