Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIEV2038
2006-05-26 08:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: EUR DAS KRAMER AND OVP DNSA WOOD'S 5/23

Tags:  PGOV PINR SOCI UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8785
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #2038/01 1460845
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 260845Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY KIEV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9515
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002038 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: EUR DAS KRAMER AND OVP DNSA WOOD'S 5/23
MEETING WITH OUR UKRAINE'S ROMAN BEZSMERTNY


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 002038

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: EUR DAS KRAMER AND OVP DNSA WOOD'S 5/23
MEETING WITH OUR UKRAINE'S ROMAN BEZSMERTNY


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In a lengthy May 23 discussion with Ambassador, EUR
DAS David Kramer, and OVP Deputy NSA Joseph Wood, Our
Ukraine's (OU) lead negotiator in the coalition formation
talks predicted that an "Orange variant" would soon prevail
and that a new government would be in place by mid-July. The
new Team Orange would feature Yuliya Tymoshenko as prime
minister and her rival, Petro Poroshenko, as the new Rada
speaker. Poroshenko was tainted by credible corruption
allegations, but wielded significant influence within OU;
Poroshenko's price had to be paid. Given the bad blood
between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, Bezsmertny said he had
serious doubts about the coalition's viability. He argued,
though, that President Yushchenko could force the two
antagonists to "behave" by threatening to call new Rada
elections -- a scenario both wished to avoid. Bezsmertny
read from an updated copy of the Orange coalition agreement,
which he said was detailed and would provide fixed boundaries
for both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko. The holdup right now was
Yushchenko, as the President continued to review his options
and insist that the Party of Regions be brought on board in
some fashion -- something Bezsmertny strongly opposed. End
summary.

Latest On Coalition Talks
--------------


2. (C) During a May 23 meeting with Ambassador, EUR/DAS David
Kramer, and Deputy National Security Adviser to the Vice
President Joseph Wood, Our Ukraine's point man in the Rada
majority coalition formation negotiations Roman Bezsmertny
predicted that an Orange coalition would be formed by
mid-June and that Ukraine would have a new government in
place by early July.

Speaker Poroshenko, or Else
--------------


3. (C) According to Bezsmertny, the new Team Orange would
feature Yuliya Tymoshenko in an encore performance as prime
minister and her rival Petro Poroshenko as the new Rada
Speaker. In response to questions about the logic of making
Poroshenko Rada speaker, Bezsmertny said there was no other

way to create an Orange coalition. Poroshenko's reputation
was tainted by serious corruption allegations, but he wielded
significant influence within Our Ukraine, and his interests
had to be accommodated -- it was as simple as that,
Bezsmertny emphasized. Current Prime Minister Yuriy
Yekhanurov could be expected to head the National Security
and Defense Council (NSDC),while recently resigned NSDC
chief Anatoliy Kinakh would become the head of the Rada's
National Security and Defense Committee. (Note: It is not
clear how this jibes with reports that this committee has
been split into two committees.) Socialist Party leader
Oleksandr Moroz would shepherd the Rada majority, Bezsmertny
said.

How Long Will It Last?
--------------


4. (C) Bezsmertny acknowledged that, given the bad blood
between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko, he had "serious doubts"
about the viability of an Orange coalition; he declined to
predict how long the arrangement would last. He argued,
though, that President Yushchenko could "make them behave" by
threatening to dissolve parliament and call new elections --
a prospect that Bezsmertny said Tymoshenko and Poroshenko
both dreaded. Noting that "there is a thin line between love
and hate," Bezsmertny suggested that Tymoshenko and
Poroshenko might appear in public, shake hands, agree to "do
business" together, and jointly blame former State Secretary
Oleksandr Zinchenko for causing last September's political
blowup that prompted President Yushchenko's Solomonic
decision to sideline both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.

Good Luck
--------------


5. (C) Responding to questions about whether a
Poroshenko-controlled Rada would be able and/or willing to
pass needed legislation, Bezsmertny read selected passages
from the latest version of the Orange coalition agreement,
which both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko would be obligated to
heed. Bezsmertny asserted that the extremely detailed
document would form the "boundaries" for Tymoshenko and
Poroshenko; failure to stick to the agreement would be cause
for Yushchenko to step in and call new elections. In

KIEV 00002038 002 OF 002


response to a question from Ambassador, Bezsmertny
acknowledged that Tymoshenko had not read, let alone agreed
to, this latest text.

The Yushchenko Factor
--------------


6. (C) Bezsmertny pointedly blamed President Yushchenko for
the slow pace of the coalition negotiations and the fact
that, nearly two months after parliamentary and local
elections, Ukraine still had no new government in place.
Yushchenko was still reviewing all his options, Bezsmertny
said, grousing that he "had no idea" when the president would
act. Bezsmertny related that he had recently told Yushchenko
that there were two real options: an Orange coalition or an
Orange-Blue deal with the Party of Regions. Yushchenko was
inclined to choose the "Orange variant," but was still
insistent on getting Regions inside the proverbial tent.
Bezsmertny emphasized that he opposed working with Regions,
noting that Regions wanted the Ministries of Finance and
Justice, the NSDC and the Rada Speakership as the price of
joining Yushchenko's Grand Coalition. "If you give them all
that," Bezsmertny commented, "then who will really control
the government?"

7, (U) OVP DNSA Wood cleared this message.


8. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Gwaltney