Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KIEV1177
2006-03-27 14:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: POST-ELECTION DAY DEVELOPMENTS

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM RU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 001177 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RU
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: POST-ELECTION DAY DEVELOPMENTS


Classified By: Political Counselor Aubrey Carlson for reasons 1.4(a,b,d
).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 001177

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RU
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: POST-ELECTION DAY DEVELOPMENTS


Classified By: Political Counselor Aubrey Carlson for reasons 1.4(a,b,d
).


1. (SBU) Summary: Ballot counting for the March 26 national
parliamentary vote (ref B) proceeded without significant
incident throughout the night and into the morning of 27
March, with official results slowly coming in through the day
and approaching the exit polling results by the national
consortium of local pollsters. International observer
reports gave the election high marks, noting mainly
administrative problems caused by concurrent local and
parliamentary elections and challenges in administering voter
lists. Kiev has remained quiet with no sign of protests, and
few complaints from parties about the election. Overall
turnout for the election was 67.13 percent, according to the
Central Election Commission (CEC). End summary.

Exit Polls
--------------

2. (SBU) Final exit polling by the USG-funded national
consortium, if accurate, would put the Orange trio of parties
comfortably over the 225 required for majority at 255, and
make an Orange coalition a viable option and a
Regions-Communist alliance untenable. Other exit polls had
Speaker Lytvyn's bloc squeaking into the Rada, but only one
(that of the Party of Regions) suggested numbers that would
preclude a pure Orange majority. The national consortium
final numbers (and their translation into numbers of Rada
seats) were as follows:

vote seats
Regions 31 176
Tymoshenko 23.9 136
Our Ukraine 15.5 88
Socialists 5.4 31
Communists 3.3 19

Ballot counting
--------------

3. (SBU) Ballot counting went on throuout the night, without
serious incident, but with a variety of minor organizational
issues. Embassy observers deployed throughout Ukraine
reported some polling stations finished their parliamentary
vote counts as early as about 2 am, while others lasted at
late as 11 am (with the local election counts still ahead).
Embassy observation overnight included a number of minor
infractions, and in some cases serious disorganization, but
no serious problems. In Simferopol, observers estimated that
1-3 percent of the electorate was not on the voter lists, and

one local polling station had several people added to their
list by the local court (in apparent contradiction of the
law, since Yushchenko did not sign legislation that would
have allowed this practice). Kiev observers were also told
by precinct officials who appeared to be acting in good faith
that individuals with a court order could get their names
added to the list -- evidence of some administrative
confusion at the local levels. Committee of Voters of
Ukraine (CVU) observers also noted this confusion but
indicated the practice was not massive and could not be used
to cancel election results even at select polling stations.


4. (U) CEC official results came in slowly throughout the
day, inching slowly toward exit poll numbers. With 44.94
percent of precincts reporting at 7:10 pm, the official votes
tally stood at:

Regions 26.98 percent
Tymoshenko 22.63
Our Ukraine 16.28
Socialists 7.10
Communists 3.54
-------------- 3% threshold --------------
Lytvyn 2.70
Kostenko-Plyushch 2.36
Vitrenko 2.22
PORA-PRP 1.45
Viche 1.43

International Observer Reports
--------------

5. (U) OSCE, IRI (International Republic Institute),and
ENEMO (European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations)
observation missions all gave favorable reports on the
election process and commended the calm, peaceful environment
on election day. Deputy Head of the OSCE observer mission
Riccardo Cherlleri told us that overall the election was a
step forward even from the December 2004 presidential
re-vote. ENEMO noted there were no reports of centralized
misuse of administrative resource and only isolated cases of
pressure from local directors or employers, and IRI's
election observation delegation declared the election open
and transparent. The OSCE preliminary report on 26 March
assessed the election was in compliance with domestic law,
OSCE and Council of Europe committments, and noted that the
overwhelming majority of voters were able to exercise their
voting rights with virtually no serious incidents.

6. (U) Drawbacks that were noted included delays in the
formation of polling stations, ill-defined campaign finance
legal requirements leading to a lack of transparency and
accountability, and some 1,400 polling stations where the
number of registered voters exceeded the legal maximum
contributing to potential disenfranchisement, and the scope
and timing of the voter registration overhaul placing
responsibily on local authorities that underestimated the
challenges. The report noted that regionally specific
allegations of inaccuracies in voter lists were only verified
on a limited basis, and that overcrowding or long lings were
reported in 9 percent of polling stations visited. OSCE
observers were denied full access to the tabulation of
results in three DECs (District Election Commissions) in
Luhansk, Poltava, and Sumy, and observers reported some
serious concerns regarding vote tabulation in the Kirovohrad
DEC. Both OSCE and ENEMO commended the CEC for functioning
in a professional, fair, and transparent manner.

Party Complaints
--------------

7. (C) In stark contrast to its pre-election stance, Regions
has been mostly silent on election problems so far, going so
far as to say publicly that the election had gone without
large-scale falsifications. (Comment: Regions' first-place
showing in the election may be enough incentive for the party
to withhold criticism. Also, the coalition formation games
that are now in full tilt may explain the Regions' decision
to play nice. See ref A.)


8. (U) Tymoshenko's camp has alleged that many polling
stations in Donetsk starting at 12:30 pm March 27 refused to
provide her party representatives with voting protocols,
making it impossible to conduct the planned parallel vote
count, and that subsequent large fluctuations in the number
of votes in Donetsk signified that that vote was being
manipulated against BYuT and Our Ukraine.


9. (SBU) In Ternopil, Embassy observers reported that
PORA-PRP and Kostenko-Plyushch blocs claimed to have video
footage of 200 people being given ballots without signing the
register, and were taking the case to court. Despite much
hoopla just before the vote about thousands of law suits in
the offing, there have been no concrete signs of action of
any sort by Ne Tak. Vitrenko's threat to bring 50,000
supporters to the Maidan has yet to materialize, and Kiev
streets remained quiet througout the day, with the major
parties apparently absorbed in coalition talks (ref A). The
maidan website reported mid-afternoon that Vitrenko was
planning to stage protests in Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk,
blaming Our Ukraine for stealing votes from her bloc, and the
site alleged she would pay protestors 10 UAH per hour.

Kiev City Election
--------------


10. (U) CVU indicated that a party (NFI) had instructed DEC
representatives not to sign protocols for the Kiev mayoral
election, which CVU representative Poberezhnyy characterized
as a warning. He suggested that some parties were interested
in invalidating the mayoral election and called on the
electoral commissions to ignore instructions from their
parties and fulfill their responsibilities. Early returns
showed both MP Leonid Chernovetsky and former boxing champion
Klychko leading over incumbent Mayor Omelchenko, but we would
note that these early returns conflict with pre-election
surveys indicating Omelchenko would win handily.


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Herbst