UKRAINE: ELECTION DAY REPORT -- ORANGE MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 001163

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM PHUM
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ELECTION DAY REPORT -- ORANGE MAJORITY
LOOKING POSSIBLE


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Election day has proceeded without problems
on a national scale that should affect the outcome of the
vote, despite a variety of adminstrative deficiencies in many
polling stations and allegations by all sides of wrongdoing
by their opponents. Main concerns going in to election day
that polling stations would not function sufficiently and
that massive numbers of voters would be absent from lists do
not appear to have materialized based on observations of
Embassy observers deployed throughout Ukraine. Throughout
the day reports of long lines generally proved to be a 15-30
minute wait, but OSCE and CVU observers in Luhansk began to
report lines with wait times up to 2 hours toward the close
of the day. Opposition Party of Regions statements have
alleged voter list problems and long lines disenfranchising
thousands of their own voters, and Our Ukraine observers have
reported a number of incidents of vote buying, abuse of
mobile and absentee voting, and similar infractions in
Luhansk and Donetsk, but reported problems are scattered,
largely unproven, and, from what we have heard, not
sufficient to alter the basic outcome of the national
election. End summary.

Polling Stations Opened, mostly on time
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2. (C) The CEC reported March 26 that all of Ukraine's
polling stations opened for election day except one, where a
Molotov cocktail set fire to the building overnight in Kiev
oblast; in a very small percentage of stations opening was
delayed up to several hours. Embassy observers reported a
variety of minor administrative problems in the voting
process, but most polling station commissions (PSCs) appeared
to have membership representing a variety of parties, even if
some only technically (note: as in past elections, some PSC
members have little connection to the party they have been
designated to represent). Observers in Donetsk heard reports
that businesses were controlling certain polling stations,
making it appear that the Donetsk voting machine was in full
swing to get out the vote, but no significant violations were
observed.

Voter lists not as bad as many predicted
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3. (C) Overall, polling stations were functing well enough to
result in very small numbers of people being excluded because
their names were absent from the voter list. Many PSCs
appear to have worked hard to improve voter lists in the
preceding weeks, and one report from the nonpartisan
Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU) indicated that voter
lists were significantly improved over 2004 because hundreds
of thousands of incorrect names had been removed. Embassy
observers reported a total of 0-15 people turned away during
the day at polling stations they visited across the country,
with most in the low single digits. In places where the
voter lists appear to have been more of a problem, notably
Luhansk, reports suggest that local voter list committees had
not done their job. Toward the end of the day, Luhansk CVU
and OSCE observers began reporting lines up to 2 hours, and
one polling station with a wait as long as 4 hours, as a
result of voting lists that had significant errors and
discrepancies between the local and parliamentary lists which
were taking time to correct. Another cause of long lines was
inefficient PSCs; several in Crimea had replaced their
leadership on election eve, or even on election morning.

Watching the watchers
--------------

3. (C) Large numbers of domestic observers were present at
polling stations, and there were only a few scattered reports
of interference with observers; in several cases, Committee
of Voters of Ukraine (CVU) was able to intervene to resolve
the problem. The most significant problem appears to have
been in Donetsk and Crimea, where Razumkov and KIIS exit
pollsters reported they were not allowed to poll at some
stations and were forced to go elsewhere. One Our Ukraine
observer, according to press reports, was beaten by local
toughs in Donetsk oblast, and the local police advised him
not to report the incident.

Serious individual incidents few and far between
-------------- ---

4. (C) The most serious incidents were the firebombing of one
Kiev oblast PSC overnight, a couple of reported beatings, and
scattered reports of vote- or ballot-buying and small scale
abuse of mobile and absentee ballots. In Luhansk, Our
Ukraine reportedly registered 1460 cases of people taking
ballots outside and selling them as of 3 pm, and alleged
absentee voters were being bused to multiple stations.
Luhansk observers also reported the number of mobile voters
at several stations ranged from 50-200; CVU had advised that
anything over 50 should be regarded as suspicious. Scattered
allegations of fraud included vote buying in one Rivne city
council election, and voters being paid outside a polling
station after voting in Donetsk.

Looking for trouble
--------------

5. (C) Regions and Ne Tak representatives were clearly out
looking for flaws. One observer team witnessed what appeared
to be a staged incident in an Odesa polling station near the
local Regions headquarters in which a man who was evidently a
Regions party boss came in and made a loud scandal about his
wife being excluded from the absentee voting list for the
benefit of the Embassy observers. Regions statements
throughout the day have included claims that 25,000 people
were turned away from polling stations because their names
were not on lists, that people were waiting 2-3 hours in
lines in Odesa, and that courts in the west were allowing
voters to be included on election day while those in the east
were not. (Note: We have seen no evidence to substantiate
these claims, and moreover these numbers do not represent a
significant percentage of the electorate.) The OSCE
long-term observer in Luhansk relayed the comment of one
territorial commission head in Luhansk who claimed that only
45 percent of those who wanted to vote would get to vote.
Results preliminary
--------------

6. (C) Several exit polls have released preliminary data
showing Regions winning a plurality with between 27 and 34
percent, Tymoshenko coming in second with 21-23 percent,
President Yushchenko's Our Ukraine placing third with 13-21
percent, the Socialist coming in at about 6 percent, and the
Communists and radical Socialist Vitrenko-led bloc just over
the 3-percent barrier. Remarkably, if these figures hold,
Speaker Lytvyn's party will not make the Rada. The
U.S.-funded "National Poll" shows the following vote
percentages:

Regions 32
Tymoshenko 23.4
Our Ukraine 14.5
Socialists 5.7
Communists 3.5
Vitrenko 3.1

If this result represents the final actual vote figures, we
would see a Rada seat allocation as follows:

Regions 175
Tymo 128
OU 80
Socialists 31
Communists 19
Vitrenko 17
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Total 450

With these numbers, an Orange (Tymo, OU, Socialists) majority
of 239 is possible if they can reach agreement on the PM
ship, for which Tymoshenko would be sitting in the driver's
seat. Tymoshenko stated publicly after polls closed that
Socialist Party head Moroz had agreed to join in an Orange
coalition. Tymoshenko said she would discuss the coalition
with Our Ukraine. Interestingly, she did not respond
directly to a journalist's question on who would be the next
Prime Minister.


7. (U) Visit Kiev's Classified Website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Herbst