UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO ON ELECTIONS, COALITIONS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 001136

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM PHUM RU
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO ON ELECTIONS, COALITIONS


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (S) Summary: In a March 23 meeting with Ambassador,
President Yushchenko expressed confidence that problems in
staffing polling stations would be fixed in time for the
March 26 elections, but said that he would not sign a
Rada-passed bill allowing citizens to be added to the voter
list on election day, citing fraud concerns. Yushchenko said
he continued to seek a coalition with ex-PM Yuliya
Tymoshenko, but thought that Tymoshenko was unwilling to cede
the position of PM even if Our Ukraine garnered more votes
than Tymoshenko's bloc (BYuT). Yushchenko said he was trying
to bolster the standing of pro-reform blocs of PORA-PRP and
Orange Revolution ally Kostenko so as to have more allies in
the new Rada and strengthen his position in coalition
negotiations. According to Yushchenko, Rada Speaker Lytvyn
was being actively courted by the opposition Party of the
Regions, and Russia was pressuring Lytvyn to support Regions.
End summary.

Election administration problems fixed?
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2. (S) On March 23, three days before pivotal Rada
(parliament) and local elections, Ambassador congratulated
Yushchenko for the free and fair conduct of the election
campaign thus far, but noted concern that polling station
commissions (PSCs) were inadequately staffed and that
inaccuracies remained in voter lists. On PSCs, Yushchenko
said he was aware of the situation and was confident it would
be fixed soon. Yushchenko stated that on March 17, 4900 PSCs
were understaffed, but by March 20 only 96 were understaffed,
and soon all PSCs would be adequately staffed. Ambassador
noted that the Rada passed a bill March 14 that would allow
voters to be added to the voter list on election day with a
court order and observed that it would be good if this bill
were signed into law. (Note: This bill awaits Presidential
signature.) Yushchenko responded that he was not planning to
sign the bill, because his experts said it could lead to
electoral fraud. Yushchenko offered as an example that
someone could vote from a hospital via the mobile ballot box
(note: Ukrainian election law allows mobile balloting for
the disabled and ill),then go to a judge and get a court
order allowing that person to vote again at a regular polling
station. Yushchenko stated that this method accounted for
200-300,000 fraudulent votes during the 2004 presidential
election. He observed that in many European countries, such
as France, the voter list was closed 10 days prior to
elections. Yushchenko continued, noting that citizens could
be added to the voter list by PSCs on election day. (Note:
Ukraine's election law, as we understand it, allows PSCs to
fix minor discrepancies in voters' names, but not add their
names.)

Coalition with Tymo still in the air
--------------


3. (S) When queried about possible coalitions after the
election, Yushchenko misunderstood the question and thought
Ambassador had urged him to seek a coalition with ex-Prime
Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko. Yushchenko sighed and said that
he would try to form a coalition with her, but noted that
during the past days and weeks the most criticism of his
party was coming from Tymoshenko. Yushchenko said that four
or five days ago Tymoshenko met with Our Ukraine (OU)
campaign chief Roman Bezsmertny. When Ambassador noted that
Tymoshenko had said both publicly and privately that if Our
Ukraine received more votes than Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko
(BYuT) then she would forgo the Prime Minister position in a
coalition, Yushchenko denied that she had expressed her
willingness to cede the PM slot. Yushchenko said that OU was
trying to increase the number of votes for the reformist
blocs of PORA-PRP and Yuri Kostenko, because if either of
them made it into the Rada, it would strengthen OU's
bargaining position in coalition negotiations.

Lytvyn pulled toward Regions?
--------------


4. (S) Yushchenko said that OU had been in talks with Rada
Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, and that Lytvyn had confirmed
agreements they made in the past, but that Lytvyn was coming
under tremendous pressure. Yushchenko stated that ex-PM
Viktor Yanukovych's Party of the Regions was courting Lytvyn,
and Russia was pushing Lytvyn to support Regions as well.
Yushchenko offered that Lytvyn had lots of prominent figures
in his party who would not get into the Rada if Lytvyn did
poorly, and that these people were pulling Lytvyn toward
Regions. Yushchenko asked Ambassador if the U.S. could talk
to Lytvyn and get him to reaffirm his support for OU.
Ambassador responded that he could talk to Lytvyn, calling on
him to support reform.

Tymoshenko or Yanukovych?
--------------

5. (S) Returning to coalition negotiations with Tymoshenko,
Ambassador observed that, while it would not be easy to sit
down with Tymoshenko, the mathematics suggested strongly that
Yushchenko would have to form a coalition with either
Tymoshenko or Yanukovych. Yushchenko replied that Yanukovych
was pushing federation with Crimea and Donetsk, giving Russia
exactly what it wanted. Ambassador observed that Yushchenko
had some difficult decisions ahead of him, to which Yuschenko
nodded before turning to Transnistria (reftel).


6. (S) Comment: Yushchenko looked dispirited throughout the
meeting, seeming not to have come to terms with his
pre-election predicament, and does not appear to have a solid
plan for post-election coalition building.


7. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Herbst