THE ANGLOPHONES: SUDAN,S NEIGHBORS, PART ONE OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000861

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL SOCI SCUL ECON ETRD KEAI UG SU
SUBJECT: THE ANGLOPHONES: SUDAN,S NEIGHBORS, PART ONE OF
FOUR

REF: KHARTOUM 256


1. (SBU) Introduction: Sudan, the largest and arguably the
most ethnically complex country in Africa, has nine
neighbors, tied with the Democratic Republic of the Congo
for the most in Africa. This is the first of a series of
four cables describing the bilateral relationship between
Sudan and each adjacent state in terms of history, social,
and cultural ties; migration patterns; economic bonds; and
political relations. The series will run as follows:

-- Sudan and the Anglophones;
-- Sudan and the Arab states;
-- Sudan and the Highland states; and
-- Sudan and the Francophones.


2. (U) Summary: The relationship between Sudan and its
Anglophone neighbors, Uganda and Kenya, has been
characterized by close historical, cultural, and economic
ties to the south and separation and disputes with the north.
Now that the 20-year civil war has ended, both Kenya and
Uganda are important economic partners, and their support is
crucial to the success of Southern Sudan, whether or not it
decides to separate in 2011. Currently, the main political
dispute with Kenya is the status of the Ilemi Triangle border
region, although Sudan seems content to continue to ignore
the issue. In Uganda, the important strategic relationships
center around the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA),which both
countries are working to eliminate (reftel),and the use of
the Nile waters. End summary.

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History
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2. (U) The history of Southern Sudan is very closely tied to
both Uganda and Kenya. During the colonial era, the British
even considered splitting Southern Sudan and joining it with
one or both of its other colonies to form a greater
Equatoria. Egypt, the minority partner in the condominium of
colonization, however, sought to maintain Sudan's limited
control of its southern region to ensure the continued
supplying of Egyptian slave markets.


3. (U) During the recent civil war, Uganda and Kenya's close
relationship with the south led to tensions with the Muslim
northern governments, and both countries initially supported
the southern rebels. During the 1990s, Kenya's shift to a
more neutral stance allowed it to play a decisive role as the
mediator in the Inter-Governmental Agency for Development
(IGAD) talks that eventually led to peace. The Ugandans,
however, remained at odds with the northern government until
the final stages of the civil war (reftel).

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Cultural and Social Ties, Migratory Patterns
--------------


4. (U) Southern Sudan enjoys extremely close cultural and
social ties with both Uganda and Kenya, and the same ethnic
groups live on all sides of the borders. Before the arrival
of the colonial powers, there were no distinctions among
Northern Uganda, Northern Kenya, and Southern Sudan, and
people moved freely between what are now the three countries.


5. (U) By contrast, there were and continue to be limited
interactions with the people of Northern Sudan. The Sudd,
the world's largest swamp, and the desert beyond, has kept
the people of Uganda and Kenya, as well as the Southern
Sudanese, distinct and separate from Northern Sudanese
culture.


6. (U) Within the last three months, both Uganda and Kenya
have signed tripartite agreements with Sudan and the UNHCR to
repatriate refugees. Kenya has about 70,000 of the 550,000
Southern Sudanese refugees, while Uganda hosts over 200,000
Southern Sudanese, the Sudan's largest Southern refugee
population. The repatriation process has already begun,
although it has been slowed by continued insecurity, a
cholera outbreak, and early rains.

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Economic and Trade Ties
--------------


7. (U) Trade between Sudan and Kenya is poised to accelerate
rapidly over the next year. During the month of March, a
number of agreements were put in place to open up trade
between the two countries. Within the general framework of
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA),of
which both countries are members, Sudan has signed a new

KHARTOUM 00000861 002 OF 003


trade bilateral agreement, established a preferential tariff
schedule for Kenyan products, and helped negotiate the
establishment of an Arabic training center in Nairobi run by
the NGO Bread of Life.


8. (U) Most of the investment activity with Kenya is focused
on the south. In January, Southern Sudan sent a delegation
from the Southern Sudan Chamber of Commerce, Industry and
Agriculture to Nairobi to attract investors, and in March
Kenya hosted a Southern Sudan Investment and Development
Conference. Trade of basic goods with the south has
increased with the opening of the road between the Kenyan
border town of Lokichoggio and Torit. This trade should
continue to grow once the road is open all the way to Juba.


9. (SBU) The Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) is also
keen to establish a more extensive trading infrastructure
that will reduce the South's dependence on the north. The
biggest project in this regard is a proposal for an oil
pipeline to be constructed from the southern oil fields to
the Kenyan port of Lamu, north of Mombassa. Unconcerned with
the mountainous terrain between these points, the Kenya
Pipeline Corporation has announced it will fast-track this
project, giving Kenya a steady flow of oil and allowing
Southern Sudan to export oil without going through the north.
It is unclear how the national (northern) government would
react to this project if it materializes. There has also
been talk of new roads and a rail system linking Kenya with
the south. The GOSS has recently shown its appreciation of
Kenya's longstanding support by donating USD 1 million for
famine relief.


10. (U) Trade ties with Uganda remains focused on basic
manufactured goods and there is currently little movement to
expand this trade to higher-priced commodities. However,
Uganda remains the most important supplier to the markets of
Southern Sudan and the opening of the road to Uganda led to a
drastic drop in prices for Juba and the rest of Central and
Western Equatoria. While small in terms of overall Sudanese
imports, these products are critical for the economic growth
in the South. Larger investment projects from the Ugandans
have been discouraged by a tariff regime that is currently,
in practice, erratic.

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Political Relations
--------------


11. (U) During much of the Sudanese civil war, Nairobi served
as the de facto headquarters of the rebel Sudanese People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM),which initially put a strain on
Sudanese-Kenyan relations. However, once then-Kenyan
President Daniel Arap Moi took a leadership role in the
IGAD-sponsored peace process in 1996, Kenya was seen by the
Sudanese as moving to a more neutral position. While the
Kenyan government continued to allow the SPLM to have offices
in Nairobi, the Sudanese government demanded that Kenya
maintain a strictly neutral posture to ensure its continued
credibility as a mediator.


12. (SBU) The biggest outstanding political dispute between
Sudan and Kenya is the border demarcation in an area known as
the Ilemi triangle, a legacy of the colonial era. Kenya has
exercised effective control of the Ilemi area, in Sudan's
extreme southeast corner, throughout its history. However,
at the behest of their Egyptian partners in Sudan, the
British signed a treaty between their two colonies in 1907
that ceded a portion of the area to grant Sudanese access to
the important dry season watering grounds around Lake
Turkana. Moi made moves to integrate the triangle into Kenya
when he took power in 1978, including changing maps and
establishing an outpost. Sudan never paid much attention to
these moves and later, according to former State Minister for
Foreign Affairs Gabriel Rorig, the Sudanese government was
content to ignore these incursions for the greater good of
the peace talks. Now that the peace talks have concluded,
the Sudanese have yet to make any move to revisit the issue.


13. (SBU) The recent political relationship between the
Sudan and Uganda has been dominated by their support for each
other's rebel movements. Because of the close historical
ties between the people of Northern Uganda and Southern
Sudan, the Ugandan government provided open military support
to the SPLA throughout the civil war. Sudan countered this
by providing support to the LRA. Sudan's open support of the
LRA ended in 2003 with an agreement, still in force, that
allowed Ugandan troops to operate in Sudan when hunting LRA
forces. This detente has held and Uganda has since stopped
openly opposing Sudan in international organizations. (For a
more detailed discussion of this relationship, see reftel).


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14. (U) The Nile also forms a major strategic link between
Sudan and Uganda. As the home to the White Nile's most
important source, Uganda's water management practices have a
great effect on Sudan. Within the context of the Nile Basin
Initiative, discussions over water management are expected to
heat up in the coming months.
STEINFELD