Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KHARTOUM2373
2006-09-27 07:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Khartoum
Cable title:
DARFUR: BASHIR POLITICALLY ISOLATED; MAY BE
how-toVZCZCXRO1444 PP RUEHROV DE RUEHKH #2373 2700746 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 270746Z SEP 06 FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4739 INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 002373
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS, AF A/S FRAZER, AND
AF/SPG
NSC FOR COURVILLE AND SHORTLEY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO SU AU EG UN
SUBJECT: DARFUR: BASHIR POLITICALLY ISOLATED; MAY BE
LOOKING FOR WAY OUT
REF: KHARTOUM 2346
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CAMERON HUME; REASONS: 1.4(B) AND (D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 002373
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS, AF A/S FRAZER, AND
AF/SPG
NSC FOR COURVILLE AND SHORTLEY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO SU AU EG UN
SUBJECT: DARFUR: BASHIR POLITICALLY ISOLATED; MAY BE
LOOKING FOR WAY OUT
REF: KHARTOUM 2346
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CAMERON HUME; REASONS: 1.4(B) AND (D)
1. (C) President Bashir may be looking to escape his current
political isolation over UN peacekeeping in Darfur, Minister
of Cabinet Affairs Deng Alor told CDA Hume on September 25.
Bashir told the Council of Ministers on September 24 that
Egyptian President Mubarak had pressed him to accept a UN
force, Deng said, but Bashir had restated his firm
opposition, based on the Council's "unanimous vote" against a
deployment. However, Alor later reminded Bashir that the
Council had never settled its own decision making procedures;
the Council normally sought a consensus, and avoided acting
by majority vote. There had been no consensus on the UN
force, Alor said, but the Council had never taken a vote,
either. In that case, Bashir replied, the Council can always
discuss the issue again, and invited Alor to put the item
back on the cabinet's agenda. "I think he wants to find a
way out," Alor told Hume.
2. (C) Bashir knows he is alone both at home and abroad, Alor
continued, and understands that some in his own party are
pushing him and Sudan further into isolation for their own
political motives. "Do you know what the street is saying,
Mr. President?" Alor had asked, and suggested that real
information was not getting to him. Bashir had not
responded, Alor said, but "he knows it's true." Elders from
different political organizations had met Bashir recently to
discuss Darfur, and Alor and a few senior SPLM colleagues
plan to have a private meeting with him on September 26.
Bashir and First Vice President Salva Kiir need to reconcile
their positions on the CPA, consolidate their parties, and
work together on Darfur, Alor said. "He must watch out.
These people who are pushing him are hard on the country."
Some of them were resisting a UN force out of a commitment to
Islamic ideals, but a political confrontation could destroy
the Islamist movement in Sudan, Alor predicted. "Some of
them might be more harmful than Bashir thinks," he added
wryly.
3. (C) Hume replied that Special Envoy Natsios would likely
visit within the next few weeks, and that it would be
important for him to meet with a broad spectrum of political
leaders, both in Khartoum and Darfur; Bashir's declaration
that U.S. officials would be restricted to 25 kilometers of
the capital did not help. Alor agreed, and promised to
discuss the issue with Bashir (reftel). European Commission
President Barroso was due to arrive later this week, and was
already scheduled to meet Bashir and Kiir, Alor said. But he
didn't get a meeting with Second Vice President Taha, Alor
joked. "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs told him there was
no need."
HUME
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS, AF A/S FRAZER, AND
AF/SPG
NSC FOR COURVILLE AND SHORTLEY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO SU AU EG UN
SUBJECT: DARFUR: BASHIR POLITICALLY ISOLATED; MAY BE
LOOKING FOR WAY OUT
REF: KHARTOUM 2346
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CAMERON HUME; REASONS: 1.4(B) AND (D)
1. (C) President Bashir may be looking to escape his current
political isolation over UN peacekeeping in Darfur, Minister
of Cabinet Affairs Deng Alor told CDA Hume on September 25.
Bashir told the Council of Ministers on September 24 that
Egyptian President Mubarak had pressed him to accept a UN
force, Deng said, but Bashir had restated his firm
opposition, based on the Council's "unanimous vote" against a
deployment. However, Alor later reminded Bashir that the
Council had never settled its own decision making procedures;
the Council normally sought a consensus, and avoided acting
by majority vote. There had been no consensus on the UN
force, Alor said, but the Council had never taken a vote,
either. In that case, Bashir replied, the Council can always
discuss the issue again, and invited Alor to put the item
back on the cabinet's agenda. "I think he wants to find a
way out," Alor told Hume.
2. (C) Bashir knows he is alone both at home and abroad, Alor
continued, and understands that some in his own party are
pushing him and Sudan further into isolation for their own
political motives. "Do you know what the street is saying,
Mr. President?" Alor had asked, and suggested that real
information was not getting to him. Bashir had not
responded, Alor said, but "he knows it's true." Elders from
different political organizations had met Bashir recently to
discuss Darfur, and Alor and a few senior SPLM colleagues
plan to have a private meeting with him on September 26.
Bashir and First Vice President Salva Kiir need to reconcile
their positions on the CPA, consolidate their parties, and
work together on Darfur, Alor said. "He must watch out.
These people who are pushing him are hard on the country."
Some of them were resisting a UN force out of a commitment to
Islamic ideals, but a political confrontation could destroy
the Islamist movement in Sudan, Alor predicted. "Some of
them might be more harmful than Bashir thinks," he added
wryly.
3. (C) Hume replied that Special Envoy Natsios would likely
visit within the next few weeks, and that it would be
important for him to meet with a broad spectrum of political
leaders, both in Khartoum and Darfur; Bashir's declaration
that U.S. officials would be restricted to 25 kilometers of
the capital did not help. Alor agreed, and promised to
discuss the issue with Bashir (reftel). European Commission
President Barroso was due to arrive later this week, and was
already scheduled to meet Bashir and Kiir, Alor said. But he
didn't get a meeting with Second Vice President Taha, Alor
joked. "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs told him there was
no need."
HUME