SUDAN - ROGER WINTER'S VISIT TO UPPER NILE AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 001755

SIPDIS

AIDAC
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR AF/SPG, PRM, AND ALSO PASS USAID/W
USAID FOR DCHA SUDAN TEAM, AFR/SP
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, FAS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA MARKINGS)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI KAWC SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN - ROGER WINTER'S VISIT TO UPPER NILE AND
SOUTHERN BLUE NILE

KHARTOUM 00001755 001.4 OF 004


--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Roger P. Winter, Special Representative of the Deputy
Se Xcretary of State for Sudan, traveled to Upper Nile and
Southern Blue Nile from June 26 to 30 to assess progress
in implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
Winter met the governors of Upper Nile and Unity states;
the Deputy Governor of Blue Nile State; and four county
commissioners of Ulang, Nasir, Akobo and Kurmuk
counties. The trip revealed mixed progress in
implementation of the CPA. Most positive was Unity
State, where the strong governor has completed the
change from National Congress Party (NCP) to Sudan
People?s Liberation Movement (SPLM) authority in six
months, and where people can see physical positive
changes since the CPA ? heavy machinery working ? as
well as enjoy the new freedoms of movement and
expression that are palpable throughout the South. Most
negative was Southern Blue Nile, where there are few
visible changes between war and peace due to slow
implementation of the CPA. End summary.

--------------
Malakal
--------------


2. (SBU) Winter, accompanied by a USAID humanitarian program
officer, traveled to Upper Nile, Jonglei, Blue Nile, and
Unity states from June 26 to 30. The first meeting was
in Malakal, capital of Upper Nile State, where Winter
met Governor Dak Duop, several state ministers, one
member of the state assembly, one member of the South
Sudan Assembly in Juba, and the commissioners of Ulang
and Nasir counties. Upper Nile is the only state in the
South with a governor from the NCP. This meeting was
notable for two things: the Governor?s refusal to say
anything of substance in reply to questions about the
status of implementation of the CPA, and a heated
exchange between two officials over recent tribal
violence and cattle looting that killed dozens of
people. The state government appears to be functioning
well under the power sharing arrangement of the CPA. Of
the state?s eight ministers, six are from SPLM, one from
the NCP, and one from another southern party. Power is
similarly shared in the state assembly, and the 12
county commissioners are all SPLM. No revenue has yet
come to the state, but they expect considerable
resources from the wealth sharing agreement that will
give the state government two percent of the state?s
considerable oil revenue.


3. (SBU) The county commissioners from Nasir and Ulang said
they have established the county governments from ex-
SPLM and ex-Government of Sudan (GOS) administrations,
disarmed civilians who were heavily involved in militia
activities during the civil war, and are now promoting
peace and reconstruction. The main problems are the
needs of populations returning from the North and from
Ethiopia. About half the people of these counties were
displaced during the war, and lack of essential services
and infrastructure, as well as resources to establish a
government presence in rural areas where cattle looting
and communal conflict persist.

--------------
Akobo
--------------


4. (SBU) On June 27, Winter went to Akobo in eastern Jonglei
County to attend a reconciliation meeting between two of
Sudan?s most aggressive tribes, the Lou Nuer of Jonglei
and the Murle of Pibor. Local authorities and community
leaders are working hard to stop the cattle-looting and
killings, but this is difficult without government
structures and security forces in rural areas. Lack of
water in the dry season causes cattle herds to
congregate at permanent water sources where conflict
often breaks out. Community leaders have agreed that
people should return to their own tribal land after two
decades of conflict that allowed strong groups to expand
and displace weaker communities, but this is slow to
happen because of lack of services ? especially year-
round water sources ? and security forces in most rural
areas.

KHARTOUM 00001755 002.4 OF 004



--------------
Kurmuk
--------------


5. (SBU) On June 28, Winter traveled to Kurmuk, the SPLM
administrative center for Southern Blue Nile State, and
met the Deputy Governor and other officials who were
gloomy in their assessment of implementation of the CPA
in the state. The power-sharing formula ? 55 percent
NCP, 45 percent SPLM ? has been implemented only at
senior levels of the State Government ? ministers, state
assembly, county commissioners ? but not for the general
civil service. SPLM has appointed civil servants in its
areas of administration, but they are not paid because
NCP says they are not qualified. After 50 years of
marginalization and 10 years of civil war, SPLM
officials are understandably less qualified than NCP
officials. No money has yet come through the Government
of National Unity to the SPLM areas of the state except
for salaries to top officials. The bright spot is that
security arrangements are going well ? the Joint
Integrated Unit is formed with 3,000 individuals from
Sudan People?s Liberation Army (SPLA) and 3,000 from the
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF),and salaries are paid. The
state police force has been formed; 345 police from SPLM
areas are now in Ed Damazine for training.


6. (SBU) Community reaction to the CPA is mixed in Southern
Blue Nile. On the positive side, there is now freedom
of movement and expression, and nobody is being arrested
and imprisoned, a common occurrence during the war. On
the negative side, people see very little change between
war and peace. There have been no improvements in
infrastructure and services ? the same non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) are providing the same services as
during the war. More health, education, and water
facilities are needed, especially in the most war-
affected areas where many internally displaced persons
(IDPs) and refugees are returning. Civil service,
police, and SPLA soldiers outside of the Joint
Integrated Units are not being paid. The Deputy
Governor provided two reasons for slow implementation of
the CPA: First, the CPA requires many laws to be
changed in Khartoum, and this is being done very slowly;
second, the federal government is not committed to the
special status of Blue Nile State under the CPA, which
requires special financial help.


7. (SBU) The Deputy Governor said that Blue Nile State is
divided into two: The GOS side has good infrastructure
and is developed; the SPLM side has had no development
since the British left in 1956, leaving it with poor
infrastructure, low human capacity, and few income
opportunities. International assistance should help
redress the imbalances by going to the marginalized
areas where the war was fought. The NCP controls the
nation?s wealth and is in a strong position to win the
elections. The Deputy Governor said the choice for
Southern Blue Nile, which like South Kordofan has no
option to secede, is bleak: Do we return to war? Or do
we submit to another 50 years of marginalization, with
no development? He called this a more sensitive time
than during the war. The SPLM wants to change Sudan?s
system of governance based on narrow ideology. A
majority of Sudanese favor this, but the ruling party
controls the wealth of the state, and the SPLM and other
opposition parties control areas in the South, West, and
East that are impoverished.

--------------
Bentiu
--------------


8. (SBU) In Bentiu, the capital of Unity State, Winter met
with Governor Taban Deng Gai and many state officials.
The biggest problem facing the state is the large number
of returning IDPs and refugees, mostly coming from the
North on their own. The state has good roads built by
the oil companies, but the main need is for increased
services in the rural areas. Security in the state is
good, except for small clashes over cattle at common
water points and grazing areas. The SAF are withdrawing
very slowly because Khartoum is reluctant to leave the
oil fields, but this is expected to accelerate soon.
The SPLA is now gathering at its new bases, which

KHARTOUM 00001755 003.4 OF 004


DYNCORP is helping to build, including forces newly
redeployed from Eastern Sudan. Police are functioning
well, but are not yet paid and need training. The jails
are filled with cattle looters, but there are no judges
to process cases. Disarmament and demobilization is
going very slowly ? nothing has come to the state yet
from the national program; and the state has appointed
people who have a work plan to deal with inter-clan
violence and child soldiers within the state, but has no
money yet to establish the office or start any
activities. The state has not yet received its full
share of the two percent oil revenue, although irregular
payments have come from Khartoum and are used for
infrastructure and to buy tractors for agricultural
development. The impact of the oil companies is visible
in the good roads and volume of heavy trucks bringing
goods from Port Sudan.


9. (SBU) The SPLM has taken over the state authority
according to the power sharing formula of the CPA under
which SPLM gets 70 percent, NCP 10 percent, and other
southern parties 20 percent. The SPLM has a huge
membership still committed to transforming Sudan, but
the challenge is how to keep them engaged in governance
when there are few resources. The SPLM operates on
membership fees and donations from friends, but cannot
compete with the NCP, which has had 16 years of
organization and state funding. Many people from Darfur
and South Kordofan (Muglad, Babanusa) who like SPLM?s
vision and program come to SPLM in Bentiu seeking
guidance and support. SPLM is unable to respond
properly because of lack of money.

--------------
Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) Winter sought to understand how new governance
structures are coming up under the CPA and to what
extent the SPLM can still be the main agent of change so
that Sudan becomes a stable democracy contributing to
regional stability. No clear and uniform answer emerged
from the trip. Prospects seem bleak in Southern Blue
Nile, where there is no option to secede, implementation
of the CPA is slow, and few peace dividends are visible.
There is some progress in the three states of Greater
Upper Nile ? new governance structures are established
in centers and people are enjoying the new freedoms of
expression and movement, but state revenue is not yet
flowing, IDPs and refugees are returning to inadequate
services, and rural areas lack law and order to contain
inter-communal clashes over cattle that are still
killing hundreds of people. The number of Sudanese-
Americans who have returned on their own to help rebuild
their communities was notable. Attending one meeting in
Nasir was one individual from Omaha who is a member of
the Upper Nile State assembly, one person from
Minneapolis who is a payam (district) executive, and a
third individual from Des Moines who is a church leader
working on community development. End comment.

--------------
USAID programs in areas visited:
--------------


11. (U) In Southern Blue Nile, USAID has increased its
programs in recent years and funds the following
projects: GOAL in primary health care since 1999;
Samaritan?s Purse in the Kurmuk hospital, school
construction, and food security since 2002; a land
project since 2003 that helps local government and
communities to make decisions over land use; Norwegian
People?s Aid (NPA) in a food aid and agricultural
recovery program since 2005; Mercy Corps in civil
society program new in 2006; and the U.N. World Food
Program (WFP) in food distributions, a new program in

2006.


12. (U) In the areas visited in the three states of Upper
Nile, USAID partners are providing health care (Save the
Children, World Relief); water (Pact); agriculture (NPA,
Food for the Hungry International); livestock
(Veterinaires Sans Frontieres); food aid (NPA, WFP);town
sanitation infrastructure (DAI); and office renovation
and communications equipment for county authorities
(NPA).

KHARTOUM 00001755 004.4 OF 004



STEINFELD