SOUTH SUDAN: ASSESSMENT COMMISSION FINDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001500

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D, AF A/S FRAZER, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SU
SUBJECT: SOUTH SUDAN: ASSESSMENT COMMISSION FINDS
FRUSTRATION BUT HOPE IN JUBA

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CAMERON HUME; REASON: 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)
Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) found much
frustration but some hope during a three day visit to Juba,
June 22-24. Eleven Commission members, including CDA Hume,
met with Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) President Salva
Kiir, Vice President Riek Machar, Legislative Assembly
Speaker James Wani, and other government officials. The
status of Abyei, oil revenues, military redeployments, and
good governance topped the agenda. Nearly one year after the
formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU),CPA
implementation seems to be hampered by many obstacles--but
still moving forward. End Summary.


2. (C) Abyei remains "the fundamental issue" in the
North-South peace process, Kiir told the AEC. There had been
no action since the Abyei Boundary Commission released its
report last summer, only to have it rejected by President
Omar al-Beshir. There were now four possible options: send
the report back to the Presidency for action; call back the
Commission's experts to defend their report; submit the
report to the Constitutional Court; or enter into
arbitration. Kiir had originally favored calling back the
experts, but this seemed impossible once the GoSS accepted
the report. "It wasn't my decision," Kiir observed quietly.
The most viable option now was to go back to the Presidency,
he said, though he still appeared open to calling back the
experts. "Naivasha depends on the good faith of the
implementers, and depending on that degree of faith might
have been a mistake," he suggested. "But I was not at
Naivasha." (A National Congress Party representative at a
June 26 AEC working group meeting asked for a full hearing of
the Abyei issues at the next AEC plenary meeting on July 11).


3. (C) South Sudan's reliance on oil revenues makes Abyei
even more critical. As GoSS Minister of Finance Arthur
Akuien explained, delays in fulfilling Multi-Donor Trust Fund
pledges mean the Government of Southern Sudan now relies
entirely on oil revenues for its operations -- about USD 101
million per month. A slight drop in the price of oil can
therefore create serious shortfalls on the government budget.
(The GoSS is working on developing a local taxation system
and a foreign investment policy, but these are "difficult
tasks" right now, the Minister said.) Moreover, the CPA Oil
Commission has yet to begin its work. "We're not sure if the
oil is in the North or South," Kiir said, "but we feel like
we're not getting the right share."


4. (C) One part of the CPA that seems to be moving forward is
the redeployment of Sudqn Armed F/rces (SAF) and sudanQPaople/s LireratYmn Ariy ,SXLA-`untsQ Re$epli9menp0cRm=
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iu,Y@a(KIhd4+bek*l-ixQldQhcl`qQp`~u5xQa(KQhto /#t_c\1" tunc_eOqqcQRQ]QxQQoh!Zob?nsMiQSsBQm,Ki(QYKQ(# /(Q-`dnp-int Integrated Units (JIU) is
moving forward as well; CDA Hume attended the handover to the
Equatoria Military Area, based in Juba, to a JIU on June 24.
But there have been problems, according to SPLA Chief Deng.
Some SAF troops have refused to leave, while others have left
but intentionally destroyed their former camps in the
process. Other SAF units have moved just over the
North-South border, especially around oil rich areas near
Abyei and in Blue Nile State. "They have even repainted some
of their helicopters white, so we'll think they're the UN,"
Deng said.


5. (C) Even without footdragging from the North, the South
has plenty of homegrown difficulties when it comes to
governance. South Sudan Legislative Assembly Speaker James
Wani admitted that that the GoSS needed to "combat
corruption," but put forward no proposals on what to do about
it. The appointed Assembly, meanwhile, plays little role in
oversight of public accounts -- especially after the Speaker
adjourned it several weeks early for its summer recess. (The
Assembly is scheduled to reconvene in September, to consider
several key pieces of legislation). If anything, the
Assembly's own preference seems to be a larger public trough,
not a smaller one. GoSS Minister of Labor and Public Service
David Deng recounted that he had originally proposed a "lean
government" of approximately 70,000 civil servants, only to
be criticized by the Assembly. "They said a 'lean
government' was a Western concept that had nothing do with
us, and then passed a bill expanding the civil service to

KHARTOUM 00001500 002 OF 002


116,000," he said. Others seem to agree. The South Sudan
Demobilization, Disarmament, and Re-integration (DDR)
Commission reportedly plans to convert 100 senior SPLA
officers into senior civil servants, as an alternative to
unpaid retirement. No word yet on which ministries will
benefit from the windfall.
HUME