Sudan/Darfur - Minni returns to Darfur; meets

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001262

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI KAWC SU
SUBJECT: Sudan/Darfur - Minni returns to Darfur; meets
Winter del; Trilateral Kiir/Minni/Abdul Wahid meeting
planned

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Kiir, Minawi, and Wahid Plan Meeting in Southern Sudan
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1. In a meeting with Roger Winter, Kate Almquist, and
Brian D'Silva on Friday, May 26, First Vice President
Salva Kiir reported that he had invited Abdul Wahid to
meet with him somewhere in southern Sudan before May 31
to reiterate and urge Wahid to sign the DPA. Kiir also
extended a meeting invitation to Minni Minawi during a
phone call on May 26 to which Minawi immediately agreed.
On May 27, Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva raised with Kiir
the possibility of meeting with both Minawi and Wahid.
All parties have now agreed to meet in southern Sudan on
Wednesday, May 31. (Note: A National Congress Party
(NCP) - Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) joint
party meeting in Khartoum precludes the possibility of
meeting prior to May 31. End note.)


2. Both Kiir and Minawi are firm about not reopening the
Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) to further negotiation.
However, both parties aim to secure Wahid's support for
the DPA in order to neutralize Fur discontent over the
agreement. In private discussions with each of the three
parties, Winter stressed the need to find a way to bring
Wahid on board without altering the established agreement
or negatively affecting Minawi, who already signed the
accord. With or without Wahid, Minawi and Kiir both view
the meeting as an important step in developing a
collaborative relationship to work together to build a
new, more democratic Sudan. Taken in this regard,
opening this dialogue with Kiir will help Minawi prove to
his constituents that signing the DPA was the right thing
to do. (Please note: Plans for this trilat meeting
should be closely held, and not shared liberally with
foreign interlocutors in capitals. There is no need for
a slew of onlookers to descend on Juba.)

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USG Delegation Rallies Support for DPA in North Darfur
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3. Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva traveled to El Fasher,
North Darfur, on May 28 to visit Ali Trayo, a key
political advisor to Minawi, in a remote location
northeast of Kutum. At the meeting, Winter and Almquist
explained the DPA to approximately 50 SLA commanders and
answered questions for almost three hours. Question
topics ranged broadly from development and recovery
concerns to what will happen to outliers after the AU's
May 31 deadline to sign the DPA, what is the USG view of
those who oppose the DPA, when will DPA implementation
begin, and when will immediate tangible benefits - such
as medical care for war wounded and military training for
SLA combatants - be forthcoming.

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Minawi Returns to North Darfur
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4. Minni Minawi returned to Darfur for the first time
since signing the DPA on Monday, May 29. Arriving in
style on a Libyan Airways A-300 airbus from Tripoli to El
Fasher, Minawi and his delegation were met on arrival by
the Wali of North Darfur, the AU Deputy Chief of Mission,
representatives from UNMIS, and the USG delegation
consisting of Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva. Despite the
Wali's efforts to organize a "victory tour" for Minawi in
El Fasher, Minawi insisted on only a brief greeting on
the tarmac. He was then adroitly whisked away by the AU
to the AMIS compound where he spent the night. On
Tuesday, May 30, Minawi is expected to travel to several
of his areas in North Darfur to begin explaining the DPA
directly to his commanders and constituents. Winter and
Almquist will accompany him for the day.

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USG Extends Support for DPA Implementation to SLM/Minawi
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5. Meeting with Minawi on May 29, Almquist explained the
USG's offer to the AU to provide two offices for the use
of DPA signatories and to support overall implementation
of the DPA in Khartoum and El Fasher. Minawi was
particularly interested in the Khartoum office, as he and
his representatives currently have no office space in the
capital. Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva also visited a
building which USAID/OTI partner Development
Alternatives, Inc. (DAI) identified as a potential DPA

KHARTOUM 00001262 002 OF 002


support office in El Fasher. Embassy RSO has approved
the facility, and USAID is proceeding with plans to lease
and refurbish the building. Dyncorp has requested
permission to travel to Khartoum as soon as possible to
begin work on the Khartoum office location.
Additionally, Winter briefed Minawi on USG plans for
Security Advisor Todd Wilson to arrive within the next
week to provide security assistance and advice to the
SLM. Minawi appreciated this offer of support and is
eagerly awaiting Wilson's arrival. Modalities of
security engagement with SLM/Minawi will need to be
worked out upon Wilson's arrival in Sudan.

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Comment
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6. SLM support for the DPA is extremely tenuous, even
among Minawi's core. Minawi and Trayo both expressed
significant concern about the AU's May 31 deadline for
Wahid to sign the agreement - what actions will the AU
Peace and Security Council take if Wahid still has not
signed the DPA when this latest deadline passes? SLA
commanders on the ground do not understand when the DPA
goes into effect. If the AU keeps shifting the deadline,
SLA commanders on the ground will find it harder and
harder to understand why Minawi signed the DPA on May 5.
Both Minawi and Trayo felt that instability will escalate
if the AU again extends the deadline for Wahid to sign
the accord. Minawi seriously considered traveling to
Addis to address the AU Peace and Security Council
directly on this point, although he will forgo these
plans in order to meet in southern Sudan with Kiir and
Wahid on May 31.


7. Minawi is frustrated at having lost considerable time
in N'djamena and Tripoli before being able to return to
Darfur. Despite some logistical challenges and ongoing
ambiguity with the timing of the Minawi-Kiir-Wahid
meeting, he has demonstrated decisiveness and command of
his time and agenda. U.S. delegation is further
impressed by the AU's handling of Minawi's return to El
Fasher, ensuring Minawi's desires were not overtaken by
the government's desire to "handle" him. The AU provided
Minawi sanctuary and facilitated his plans as requested
to ensure his safety and comfort while in El Fasher.

STEINFELD