EASTERN SUDAN: OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001183

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM ER SU
SUBJECT: EASTERN SUDAN: OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN

REF: (A) KHARTOUM 780 (B) ASMARA 381 (C)KHARTOUM 952

Classified By: Charge D'Affairs C. Hume, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d
)


1. (C) Summary. On May 16 representatives from the US, UN,
Canada, Netherlands, Norway and Britain met to discuss the
situation in East Sudan. The discussion centered on the next
steps for peace talks between the Eastern Front and the GNU.
The Dutch and Norwegian representatives reported that Yassir
Arman, member of the government's negotiating team, said that
the plans for Eastern Front-GNU negotiations have stalled as
the Eritreans appear to be awaiting the outcome of the
implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA).
Alternatively there are internal disputes within the National
Congress Party (NCP) about Eritrea mediating the talks, as
some NCP members believe Eritrea continues to support the
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in the East. The Eastern
Front leadership has told the UN that the NCP has split the
Eastern Front along inter-tribal lines. At the meeting UNMIS
representatives requested an expanded mandate to monitor the
increased tensions in the East after the withdrawal of the
SPLM. End Summary.

A Slow Down in Talk Preparations
--------------


2. (C) According to Yassir Arman, member of the GNU East
preparatory team, there has been no further planning for
GNU-Eastern Front negotiation because the Eritreans are
waiting for the successful implementation of the DPA before
planning for the negotiations. The Eritreans want to ensure
that the DPA is implemented better than the CPA. (Note: In
February 2006, GSE President Afewerki lectured First Vice
President Salva Kiir on poor implementation of the CPA. End
Note.) Another theory is that the Eritreans are waiting for
the complete withdrawal of SPLM troops in the East before
negotiations and the GNU is stalling the negotiations until
after the Bashir-Kiir meeting scheduled for the end of May.
There are also discussions within the NCP about whether
Eritrea could mediate the Eastern Front-GNU negotiations as
many suspect the Eritreans of supporting the JEM in Eastern
Sudan, especially during the May 2 attack on a convoy 80km
north of Kassala.

Eastern Front Divisions
--------------


3. (C) In conversations with the leadership of the Eastern
Front in Asmara, UN Political Officer, Judith Goetz reported
that the leaders admitted that the National Congress Party
(NCP) had succeeded in dividing the movement along
inter-tribal lines and the Eastern Front now had no common
vision. Despite the split, the leadership was reportedly
frustrated that the negotiations had not begun and felt their
time was wasted in Asmara. Some of the leaders have returned
to Hamesh Koreib. The British reported that other leaders of
the Eastern Front have approached British NGO Concordis
International for more training to prepare for the
negotiations.

UN Needs Increased Mandate in the East
--------------


4. (C) Some UN representatives are requesting an increased
mandate for UNMIS to monitor the situation in the East after
the withdrawal of SPLM troops. The UN fears that once the
SPLM completely withdraw from the area its original mandate
in the area will end and the SAF and local militias will have
free rein to abuse the population, especially those suspected
of supporting the rebels.


5. (C) According to the UN Commander Prem Thapa in Kassala,
the first SPLM troop withdrawal in April was difficult
because the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) did not provide the
requested amount of logistical support for the withdrawal.
Despite this obstacle the withdrawal continued, but without
sufficient administrative coordination. The next phase of
SPLM withdrawal was scheduled for May 15. However, the
vehicles are still returning from the South, and the next
movement was pushed back to the end of May.


6. (C) Barbara Manzi, the Head of the UN-Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance in the East,
(UN-OCHA) said that the East has become a "prison" for UN
humanitarian aid workers. National Security is restricting
workers to the main cities of Kassala, Port Sudan, and
Showak, citing "insecurity" for their confinement. According
to Manzi this confinement is hampering food distribution to
the estimated 73,000 refugees in need of food assistance.


KHARTOUM 00001183 002 OF 002



7. (C) Comment: Post believes UNMIS needs an increased
mandate to monitor the events after the withdrawal of SPLM
troops from Hamesh Koreib. The area is a powder keg with SAF
troops, local militias, the JEM and disgruntled youths. With
the JEM disappointed in the DPA, there is an increased
possibility that the JEM will increase its attacks in the
East.

HUME
HUME