SUDAN: TOO EARLY TO SET DATE OF EASTERN FRONT TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001008

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ER SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN: TOO EARLY TO SET DATE OF EASTERN FRONT TALKS


Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Eric Whitaker, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) an
d (d)


1. (C) Summary: In an April 25 meeting, Dr. Hassan Haj Ali,
National Congress Party (NCP) Deputy General Secretary for
External Relations, said that President Bashir and First Vice
President Kiir would determine in early May the date of the
GNU-Eastern Front negotiations and the composition of the GNU
delegation. He added that some NCP elements believed that
the USG would use the East as yet another conflict to prevent
the upgrading of bilateral relations. He questioned whether
there was an internal debate within the Eritrean government
on upgrading relations with the GNU, citing the April 11
attack in Eastern Sudan. According to the Norwegians, Yassir
Arman advised the Eastern Front to halt attacks in the East
or face NCP withdrawal from negotiations. Ali also noted the
NCP's concerns about the national political agenda of the
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). His observations about
the role of Eritrea suggests that the NCP is more interested
in cultivating an improved relationship with it than with the
Eastern Front or to address the needs of the poverty-stricken
residents of Sudan's East. End Summary.

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Ali: GNU Agrees to Asmara as Venue for Talks with Eastern
Front
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2. (C) Dr. Hassan Haj Ali, NCP Deputy General Secretary of
External Relations, opened the meeting by expressing Kamal
Obied's (NCP Chair of the GNU East Committee) apologies for
not being available to participate in the meeting, citing
previous engagements. Ali said that the GNU and the Eritrean
government had agreed to Asmara hosting, facilitating, and
even mediating Eastern Front-GNU talks; however, it is too
early to decide the exact dates for negotiations. He added
that in early May, President Bashir and First Vice President
Kiir would meet during an NCP-SPLM conference to discuss a
variety of issues, including Sudan's East, and would decide
on the date of the negotiations and the composition of the
joint GNU delegation. Observers, he said, were not ruled out
for the negotiations. Ali inquired whether the U.S. would be
willing to provide support for the Eastern Front talks, such
as it did in Abuja and Naivasha. Pol/Econ Chief said he
would refer the matter to Washington, but he assumed a
positive response would be received.

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Eritrea: Internal Debates on Sudan Relations
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3. (C) For Eritrea to be viewed as a trustworthy mediator,
the relations between the GNU and Eritrea must be upgraded,
Ali said. He added that following the Eastern Front-JEM
April 11 attack in Eastern Sudan, the GNU requested an
explanation from the Eritreans. (Note: Separately,
Norwegian First Secretary Asmund Skeie told Poloff that
Yassir Arman advised the Eastern Front to stop attacks in the
East or face NCP withdrawal from the negotiations. End
note.) Some in the GNU have begun to question whether there
were divisions within the Eritrean government regarding
improving relations with Sudan. Ali speculated that a
Sudanese ambassador to Eritrea would be named in July, per
the normal schedule of ambassadorial nominations, and
expected that some of the important diplomatic posts, such as
Washington, New York, London, or Cairo would be represented
by the SPLM. Ali said that the GNU would do whatever was
necessary to improve relations with Eritrea.

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No Improvement in GNU-USG Relations
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4. (C) Some "elements" within the NCP believed that the
bilateral relations between the GNU and the USG would not
improve because of the East even after Darfur was solved, Ali
said. He added that some believed this was a vicious cycle
in which after one conflict was solved, the USG would demand
another conflict be resolved to upgrade relations. Ali also
noted the high degree of "local U.S. interest" in Darfur.
Pol/Econ Chief emphasized that the GNU must move quickly to
address tensions in the East, and that there should be no gap
between resolving Darfur and dealing with the East.

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JEM: A National Political Agenda
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5. (C) Ali said that the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)
was expanding its platform to include a national political
agenda, which was evident by JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim's

KHARTOUM 00001008 002 OF 002


close relationship with Popular Congress Party (PCP) Chairman
Hassan al-Turabi. To illustrate his statement, Ali
contrasted the JEM with the other two rebel parties in
Darfur, noting that the JEM tried to pressure the GNU by
stationing itself in both East Sudan and Darfur.

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Comment
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6. (C) The GNU appears serious about negotiations with the
Eastern Front. However, the primary motivation for
negotiations appears to be to improve relations with Eritrea.
STEINFELD