SCENESETTER FOR APRIL 12-14 VISIT OF CODEL HASTERT

UNCLAS KATHMANDU 000910

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS
H PLEASE PASS TO SPEAKER HASTERT FROM AMBASSADOR MORIARTY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OREP PGOV PREL PHUM PTER PREF MASS NP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR APRIL 12-14 VISIT OF CODEL HASTERT


SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) I warmly welcome your upcoming visit to Kathmandu.
Your visit here should help further our two principle
objectives in Nepal: restoring multi-party democracy and
dealing with the Maoist insurgency. The King's takeover of
February 1, 2005 was a step back for both of these goals.
Since then, we have been urging him to reach out to the
political parties to chart a way ahead on both objectives.
We suggest you reiterate our message that the King needs to
show statesmanship and take the necessary action to get Nepal
back on track. Your visit will come immediately after a
four-day strike called by the political parties and Maoists
for April 6-9. Citing a fear of Maoist violence, the
government preemptively arrested political leaders and banned
demonstrations inside Kathmandu. End Summary.

NEED FOR KING AND PARTIES TO RECONCILE
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2. (SBU) We believe that reconciliation between the King and
political parties is the best way for Nepal to restore
multi-party democracy and develop an effective
counter-insurgency strategy against the Maoists. We worry
that an announcement by the King to hold nationwide
parliamentary elections without first bringing the political
parties into the process would not help Nepal move back to
democracy. We noted that the February 8 municipal elections
were a hollow attempt by the King to legitimize his power;
these elections had marginal participation by the Parties,
and even among royalist sympathizers, and were marred by
Maoist violence and intimidation. The King has not yet
initiated dialogue with the political parties and is losing
domestic support. The seven major political parties have
been equally reluctant to reach out to the King and have
entered into a "12-point understanding" with the Maoists. In
your meetings, you should stress the importance of
reconciliation between the King and legitimate political
forces.

DEALING WITH THE MAOISTS
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3. (SBU) Although the Maoists are increasingly making noises
about rejoining the political mainstream, they have not yet
renounced violence or changed their goals. The Maoist goals
remain to topple the monarchy and seek one-party rule for
themselves. A Maoist takeover would likely lead to
large-scale brutality, a humanitarian crisis, and massive
refugee flows, spreading instability in the region, and,
creating problems for neighboring India and China. The
Maoists have shown no sign that they intend to end their
ten-year-old insurgency, which has claimed approximately
14,000 Nepali lives. While the Maoists managed to raise
hopes of a greater degree of legitimacy through their
November 2005 "understanding" with the political parties,
there has been an increase in the level of Maoist violence
since a unilateral Maoist cease-fire ended on January 2,

2006. Maoists routinely employ violence and terror, and
commit human rights abuses including killings, torture,
bombings, extortion, kidnapping, and recruitment of child
soldiers. Nepal's human rights situation has worsened, with
violations on the part of both the government and the
Maoists. Fourteen months of palace rule have emboldened the
Maoists and made the security situation in Nepal more
precarious. In your discussions with political party
leaders, you should caution against any notions that the
Maoists will lay down arms and join the political mainstream.

NEED TO COORDINATE INTERNATIONALLY
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4. (SBU) We continue to coordinate closely with the
international community on Nepal, especially India and the
U.K., and both Japan and China have become more engaged. The
U.S., along with India and the U.K., placed a hold on lethal
military assistance to Nepal after the King's February 2005
seizure of power as pressure to restore democracy. During
the President's March visit to New Delhi, he and Indian Prime
Minister Singh agreed that the King should reach out to the
political parties to restore democratic institutions and that
the Maoists should abandon violence.

TWO REFUGEE POPULATIONS: BHUTANESE AND TIBETANS
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5. (SBU) Nepal hosts two refugee populations of concern.
Over 100,000 Bhutanese refugees have been living in seven
camps in southeastern Nepal since the early 1990s when
Bhutanese Government policies caused ethnic Nepalese to leave
Bhutan. We continue to discuss with HMGN and international
actors durable solutions, including repatriation, local
integration and resettlement of Bhutanese refugees. There
are two Tibetan refugee populations of concern: resident
Tibetans, some of whom we might resettle in the U.S., and
Tibetans transiting to India. The Embassy continues to
promote agreement between HMGN and UNHCR to allow transiting
Tibetan refugees to travel through Nepal to India. In your
meeting with the Foreign Minister, you could reiterate our
hope that Nepal will allow UNHCR to begin registering
Bhutanese refugees in the seven camps, a step necessary to
lay the foundation for future durable solutions, and press
for HMGN to reinstate a process for issuing travel documents
for Tibetan refugees.

CONCLUSION
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6. (SBU) Speaker Hastert, your visit to Nepal affords you the
opportunity to see firsthand the fragile political situation
and the real possibility of a Maoist takeover, absent
reconciliation between the Palace and the political parties
leading to the restoration of multi-party democracy. In your
meetings, you should stress the urgency for dialogue between
the King and the Parties. Also, you should caution political
party leaders to be wary of Maoist intentions and insist that
the insurgents must lay down their arms and join the
political mainstream before they can be treated as a
legitimate political party.
MORIARTY