Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06KATHMANDU3104
2006-11-24 11:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

IMPLEMENTING NEPAL'S PEACE

Tags:  PGOV PTER MARR EAID UN NP 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 003104 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ROME FOR FODAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER MARR EAID UN NP
SUBJECT: IMPLEMENTING NEPAL'S PEACE

REF: A. KATHMANDU 3091


B. KATHMANDU 3014

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Nicholas Dean;
Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 003104

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ROME FOR FODAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER MARR EAID UN NP
SUBJECT: IMPLEMENTING NEPAL'S PEACE

REF: A. KATHMANDU 3091


B. KATHMANDU 3014

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Nicholas Dean;
Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Three days after the Government of Nepal (GON) and the
Maoists signed the "Comprehensive Peace Agreement," the
Government and the Maoists are moving to implement its
provisions, but considerable challenges lie ahead. Maoist
extortion and violence as well as illegal recruitment are
continuing. The Government, the Maoists and the United
Nations Mission have begun negotiating the technical
agreement which will govern the monitoring of Maoist
combatants in camps and the locking-up of their weapons. The
structures which will administer and monitor the camps and
the overall process are being established, and the GON has
disbursed funds for this purpose. People's Liberation Army
combatants have begun collecting near the designated
cantonment sites even though the actual sites are not yet
ready. Meanwhile, a number of countries have indicated their
willingness to provide arms monitors, in at least one case,
based only on a letter from the Secretary General to the UN
Security Council. That same donor expects UN monitors to
find a permissive environment in Nepal.

Three Days After the Peace, Maoist Abuses Continue
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Three days after Prime Minister GP Koirala and Maoist
Supremo Prachanda inked the 14-page "Comprehensive Peace
Agreement" formally ending the 11-year Maoist insurgency (Ref
A),attention has turned to implementing the Agreement's
provisions. Based on limited reporting, Maoist extortion and
violence in the countryside and Kathmandu has not abated in
the immediate aftermath of the signing. Forced recruitment
by the Maoists, including of children, is also ongoing. When
challenged, the Maoists engaged in the violations have
reportedly claimed the illegal activities will cease as soon
as their combatants are in the cantonments or, in some cases,
as soon as the Maoists join an interim government. According

to the November 8 Agreement between the Government and the
Maoists (Ref B),cantonment was supposed to be complete by
November 26, the interim government formed by December 1.
The UN Secretary General's personal representative to the
peace process Ian Martin, has stated publicly that the UN was
not consulted on the timeline and that the first deadline, at
least, will not be met. (Comment: Senior Government
officials have told us privately that the December 1 date is
also unrealistic since it depends on cantonment and
completion of the interim constitution.)

Tripartite Technical Arms Agreement Under Discussion
-------------- --------------


3. (C) The section on the management of armies and arms in
the Comprehensive Peace Agreement is almost identical to the
corresponding section in the November 8 agreement. Two of
the seven main cantonment sites are different, but that is
because the United Nations found two of the sites could not
be supported logistically. What is still lacking, however,
is the technical agreement on monitoring of Maoist arms and
combatants and Nepal Army soldiers and arms. According to
Ian Martin's military advisor, Gen. Wilhemsen, the agreement
will describe the process for registering Maoist combatants
and detail how their weapons are to be catalogued and stored.
According to a member of the Government negotiating team,
Minister of Tourism Pradeep Gyawali, agreement could be
reached as soon as November 24. Ian Martin indicated
publicly on November 23 that progress was being made, but
gave no expected completion date.
Camp Oversight Structures Taking Shape
--------------

4 (C) A committee headed by Prime Minister Koirala will
reportedly have overall responsibility for directing and
managing the combatants and the camps. The Chief Secretary
of the Government, Bhoj Raj Gmire, will head the committee in
charge of implementation. A Home Ministry official informed
Emboff November 24 that Sushil Jung Rana, who was until
recently the regional administrator for one of Nepal's five
development regions, will be the Government's central
coordinator for camp management. He will be based in the
Peace Secretariat, which is part of the Prime Minister's
Office. USAID-contracted peace facilitator Hannes Siebert
told the Ambassador November 24 that the Home Secretary and a
Maoist to be named will play key roles in coordinating the
cantonment process. The Home Ministry, for instance, has
been tasked to handle the logistics of setting up the camp
infrastructure. Siebert added that the Maoists themselves
would be responsible for the internal management of the
camps. Local government, to include local peace councils,
and police officials would, he said, be involved at
coordinating the process on the ground.

Government Funds, Role of Other Domestic Organizations
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Siebert stated to the Ambassador that the Government
had already authorized Nepali Rs. 780 million (approximately
USD 10 million) for the peace process. (Note: Of this total,
the press is reporting the Government has put N.Rs. 100
million in a Peace Fund at the Peace Secretariat, of which it
is releasing N.Rs. 70 million directly to the Maoists -- a
first -- to set up and manage the cantonments. The
combatants themselves are expected to do much of the
construction. End Note.) The peace facilitator said that
Nepal's Armed Police Force would be providing tents and other
logistical support. The Ministry of Education would ensure
the combatants were provided with education and
entertainment. The Cabinet, Siebert noted, had already
approved a 15-page plan spelling out next steps, but it had
failed to consult with the Maoists. Siebert pointed out that
the 25-member National Monitoring Committee for the
Cease-fire Code of Conduct was going to be abolished and
replaced with a smaller body with five to ten members,
including the five peace process observers. A high-level
peace committee with representatives from the Seven-Party
Alliance and the Maoists was also in the offing.

The Role of the UN Mission and the World Food Program
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The UN Mission is insisting, Siebert said, that its
role will be one of monitoring only, although it will sit on
the coordinating committees. It will also constitute its own
committees on cantonment, arms management and the satellite
camps. In response to a question from the Ambassador, the
peace facilitator replied that, for now, the World Food
Program would not be feeding the combatants. Absent specific
authority in the form of a UN Security Council Resolution, it
was only allowed to feed ex-combatants. Siebert told the
Ambassador that Martin was planning to leave Kathmandu for
New York on November 25 to push for a UN Resolution. His
principal goal was to obtain authority for an initial
deployment of 35-40 arms monitors.

People's Liberation Army Already Assembling
--------------


7. (C) According to press reporting, People's Liberation Army
combatants have already begun assembling at the seven
principal cantonment sites in Kailali (far-western Nepal),
Surket (mid-western),Rolpa (mid-western Nepal),Nawalprasi
(western Nepal),Chitwan (central Nepal),Sindhuli (central
Nepal) and Ilam (eastern Nepal). Sarad, the Maoist military
commander of the PLA's "Fifth Division" which is to have its
main camp in Dahabana and satellite sites in Tila, Masina and
Simpani (Rolpa),complained publicly November 23 that "eighty
percent" of his Maoist cadre had already reached the sites,
but the camps were not ready. A similar problem had arisen
in Chitwan according to Pathik, the Maoist
"district-in-charge" there. Many of the Maoists are now
living in local villagers' homes. Finnish Charge d'affaires
Kari Karanko told Emboff November 24 that Finland and other
members of the "like-minded group" of donors (including the
United Kingdom, Denmark and Switzerland) had presented a
proposal to reprogram their bilateral assistance programs in
the areas of the camps to provide infrastructure, such as
water and housing. He suspected, however, that the
Government would decline the offer.

Monitors Offered; Permissive Environment Expected
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Kikkan Haugen, the Norwegian Counsellor (DCM),told
the DCM November 24 that the Norwegian Embassy and Oslo's
position was that a letter from the UN Secretary General to
the Security Council should be sufficient to authorize the
deployment of an initial group of UN monitors as a bridge
until a Security Council resolution could be enacted. Norway
had a list of civilian personnel who could be deployed as
early as the week of November 27. However, the UN Department
of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) was insisting, Haugen said,
that the usual rules for selecting UN monitors had to be
followed and that they had to be active duty military
personnel. DPKO was also talking about the need for a force
protection package, including helicopters and ambulances to
be deployed with the monitors. Ian Martin's Norwegian
military adviser, Gen. Wilhemsen (please protect),was
finding the lack of flexibility at the UN in New York to be
extremely frustrating. Haugen listed a number of countries
which were prepared or preparing to deploy monitors in
addition to Norway, including Brazil, Croatia, Denmark,
Egypt, Finland, Indonesia, Jordan, South Korea, Sweden,
Switzerland, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Uruguay and Yemen.
Finnish Charge Karanko told Emboff that Finland could
provide eight and Norway five on very short notice. Haugen
added that Oslo had repeatedly argued that UN monitors would
encounter a permissive environment in Nepal where both the
Government and the Maoists wanted them, not DPKO's nightmares
of Iraq, Afghanistan or Sudan.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Lack of planning and unrealistic timelines set by the
Government and the Maoists have hampered peace process
implementation. The Prime Minister appears personally
engaged in ensuring that the cantonment process is successful
and has assigned some of his most senior civil servants to
the task of coordination and implementation, which is
positive. The technical arms management agreement will take
time to negotiate, but both sides are likely to agree in the
end to something that the UN is prepared to administer. The
other immediate challenge for the Government (and the
Maoists) will be to get the camps up and running quickly.
Nepal's cold months are approaching and it is in no one's
interest for Maoist combatants to become restless and angry
because they have no place to sleep or food to eat. Broader
public dissatisfaction may also begin to mount if the
Government does not make good on its promises to promulgate
an interim constitution, establish an interim parliament and
create an interim government. Without combatants in camps
and their weapons locked up, and effectively monitored, none
of these other steps can take place.
MORIARTY